Effectiveness of UNAIDS targets and HIV vaccination across 127 countries.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Medlock J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5393239 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Effectiveness of UNAIDS targets and HIV vaccination across 127 countries.
Medlock Jan J Pandey Abhishek A Parpia Alyssa S AS Tang Amber A Skrip Laura A LA Galvani Alison P AP
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20170320 15
The HIV pandemic continues to impose enormous morbidity, mortality, and economic burdens across the globe. Simultaneously, innovations in antiretroviral therapy, diagnostic approaches, and vaccine development are providing novel tools for treatment-as-prevention and prophylaxis. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the added benefit of an HIV vaccine in the context of goals to increase rates of diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression in 127 countries. Under status quo interventions, ...[more]
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Project description:INTRODUCTION:The HIV Strategy in New South Wales (NSW) Australia aims to virtually eliminate HIV transmission by 2020. We estimated the 2016 HIV diagnosis and care cascade for the state of NSW, with a focus on introducing population-based data to improve data quality and assess progress towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. METHODS:To estimate the number of people living with diagnosed HIV (PLDHIV) we used NSW data from the Australian National HIV Registry, enhanced by surveillance among people recently diagnosed with HIV to improve migration estimates. The number of undiagnosed PLHIV was estimated using back-projection modelling by CD4 count at diagnosis. De-duplicated prescription claims data were obtained from the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), and were combined with an estimate for those ineligible, to determine the number of PLDHIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Data from a clinic network with 87% coverage of PLDHIV in NSW enabled the estimation of the number on ART who had HIV suppression. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION:We estimated that 10,110 PLHIV resided in NSW in 2016 (range 8400 to 11,720), among whom 9230 (91.3%) were diagnosed, and 8490 (92.0% of those diagnosed) were receiving ART. Among PLDHIV receiving ART, 8020 (94.5%) had suppressed viral load (<200 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL). Overall, 79.3% of all PLHIV had HIV virological suppression. CONCLUSION:NSW has met each of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. The enhanced surveillance methods and data collection systems improved data quality. Measuring and meeting the 90-90-90 targets is feasible and could be achieved in comparable parts of the world.
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Project description:Little is known about the effect of community versus health facility-based interventions to improve and sustain antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, virologic suppression, and retention in care among HIV-infected individuals in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We systematically searched four electronic databases for all available randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and comparative cohort studies in LMICs comparing community versus health facility-based interventions. Relative risks (RRs) for pre-defined adherence, treatment engagement (linkage and retention in care), and relevant clinical outcomes were pooled using random effect models. Eleven cohort studies and eleven RCTs (N?=?97,657) were included. Meta-analysis of the included RCTs comparing community- versus health facility-based interventions found comparable outcomes in terms of ART adherence (RR?=?1.02, 95 % CI 0.99 to 1.04), virologic suppression (RR?=?1.00, 95 % CI 0.98 to 1.03), and all-cause mortality (RR?=?0.93, 95 % CI 0.73 to 1.18). The result of pooled analysis from the RCTs (RR?=?1.03, 95 % CI 1.01 to 1.06) and cohort studies (RR?=?1.09, 95 % CI 1.03 to 1.15) found that participants assigned to community-based interventions had statistically significantly higher rates of treatment engagement. Two studies found community-based ART delivery model either cost-saving or cost-effective. Community- versus facility-based models of ART delivery resulted in at least comparable outcomes for clinically stable HIV-infected patients on treatment in LMICs and are likely to be cost-effective.
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Project description:Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is a well-known, but resource intensive, method for comparing the costs and health outcomes of health interventions. To build on available evidence, researchers are developing methods to transfer CEA across settings; previous methods do not use all available results nor quantify differences across settings. We conducted a meta-regression analysis of published CEAs of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to quantify the effects of factors at the country, intervention, and method-level, and predict incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for HPV vaccination in 195 countries. We used 613 ICERs reported in 75 studies from the Tufts University's Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry and the Global Health CEA Registry, and extracted an additional 1,215 one-way sensitivity analyses. A five-stage, mixed-effects meta-regression framework was used to predict country-specific ICERs. The probability that HPV vaccination is cost-saving in each country was predicted using a logistic regression model. Covariates for both models included methods and intervention characteristics, and each country's cervical cancer burden and gross domestic product per capita. ICERs are positively related to vaccine cost, and negatively related to cervical cancer burden. The mean predicted ICER for HPV vaccination is 2017 US$4,217 per DALY averted (95% uncertainty interval (UI): US$773-13,448) globally, and below US$800 per DALY averted in 64 countries. Predicted ICERs are lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, with a population-weighted mean ICER across 46 countries of US$706 per DALY averted (95% UI: $130-2,245), and across five countries of US$489 per DALY averted (95% UI: $90-1,557), respectively. Meta-regression analyses can be conducted on CEA, where one-way sensitivity analyses are used to quantify the effects of factors at the intervention and method-level. Building on all published results, our predictions support introducing and expanding HPV vaccination, especially in countries that are eligible for subsidized vaccines from GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, and Pan American Health Organization.
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Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate whether a single optimal vaccination strategy exists across countries to deal with a future influenza pandemic by comparing the cost effectiveness of different strategies in various pandemic scenarios for three European countries.DesignEconomic and epidemic modelling study.SettingsGeneral populations in Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.Data sourcesCountry specific patterns of social contact and demographic data.ModelAn age structured susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered transmission model that describes how an influenza A virus will spread in the populations of Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.InterventionsComparison of four vaccination strategies: no vaccination, blanket vaccination, vaccination of elderly people (≥ 65 years), and vaccination of high transmitters (5-19 years). The four strategies were evaluated for scenarios in which a vaccine became available early or at the peak of the pandemic, and in which either everyone was initially susceptible or older age groups had pre-existing immunity.Main outcome measureCost per quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained.ResultsAll vaccination strategies were cost effective (incremental cost per QALY gained, comparing intervention with non-intervention). In scenarios where the vaccine became available at the peak of the pandemic and there was pre-existing immunity among elderly people the incremental cost effectiveness ratios for vaccinating high transmitters were €7325 (£5815; $10,470) per QALY gained for Germany, €10,216 per QALY gained for the Netherlands, and €7280 per QALY gained for the United Kingdom. The most cost effective strategy not only differed across the pandemic scenarios but also between countries. Specifically, when the vaccine was available early in the pandemic and there was no pre-existing immunity, in Germany it would be most cost effective to vaccinate elderly people ( €940 per QALY gained), whereas it would be most cost effective to vaccinate high transmitters in both the Netherlands (€525 per QALY gained) and the United Kingdom (€163 per QALY gained). This difference in optimal strategies was due to differences in the demographic characteristics of the countries: Germany has a significantly higher proportion of elderly people compared with the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.ConclusionsNo single vaccination strategy was most cost effective across countries. With aging populations, pre-existing immunity in particular could be of crucial importance for the cost effectiveness of options to mitigate a future influenza pandemic.
| S-EPMC3395306 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:In several subgroups of South Africa, the percentage of HIV-positive individuals aware of their status falls well below the UNAIDS 90% target. This study examined the impact that home-based HIV testing services (HBHTS) had on knowledge of status in a hyperendemic area of South Africa. METHODS:We analysed data from the second cross-sectional HIV Incidence Provincial Surveillance System survey (2015/2016), a representative sample (n = 10,236) of individuals aged 15-49 years. Participants completed a questionnaire, provided blood samples for laboratory testing (used to estimate HIV prevalence), and were offered HBHTS. The proportion of people living with HIV (n = 3870) made aware of their status through HBHTS was measured, and factors associated with HBHTS uptake were identified. RESULTS:Knowledge of HIV-positive status at the time of the survey was 62.9% among men and 73.4% among women. Through HBHTS, the percentage of HIV-positive men and women who knew their status rose to 74.2% and 80.5%, respectively. The largest impact was observed among youth (15-24 years). Knowledge of status increased from 36.6% to 59.3% and from 50.8% to 64.8% among young men and women, respectively. In addition, 51.4% of those who had previously never tested received their first test. Key reasons for declining HBHTS among undiagnosed HIV-positive individuals included fear and self-report of an HIV-negative status. CONCLUSIONS:HBHTS was effective in increasing awareness of HIV-positive status, particularly among youth, men, and those who had never tested. HBHTS could have a marked impact on progress toward the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets within these subgroups.
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Project description:BackgroundThe Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Fast-Track initiative seeks to eliminate AIDS as a health threat by 2030, with its focus on UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. Effective policies and programs, if scaled nationally, have the potential to generate a greater impact on HIV control, yet a synthesis of successful HIV policies/programs aligned to the targets is currently unavailable. To fill this gap, we conducted a systematic review to evaluate successful HIV policies and programs to direct future interventions.MethodsFor the period 2007-2018, we searched 8 databases and classified eligible studies by country income level, UNAIDS targets, intervention type, and reported outcomes. Study outcomes were classified as per UNAIDS targets; proportionally: 90% target 1, 81% target 2, and 73% target 3.ResultsWe retrieved 5201 citations and a final set of eight studies on policies. Break up by income: three (38%) from high income, one (12%) from middle income and four (50%) from low income. Break up by outcomes reported: 36% (4/11) focused on HIV testing, 46% (5/11) on antiretroviral therapy initiation, and 18% (2/11) on viral suppression. Across studies, UNAIDS targets were met in high-income countries, where policies and guidelines were adhered to, whereas in low and middle-income countries, non-adherence led to failure to reach the targets. Targets were also met when country infrastructure supported a targeted program and stakeholders were actively engaged.ConclusionsFrom the studies identified, we deduced a clear, positive correlation between implementation of policies and programs that resulted in an increase in patient awareness and an increase in partner notification with services that encouraged them, and together these resulted in increasing testing rates, and deployment of linkage/retention programs that improved retention in care. An analysis of these studies also suggests that policies, combined with the scale-up incentives, are needed to change the status quo. Incentives to improve the targets must exist; performance incentives at the health care worker level and country level incentives that could transform the nature of care. Given the complexity in reporting of targets, a one size fits all model is not a feasible option. However, the policies created a strong framework to shape future interventions.
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Project description:ObjectiveTo assess the costs and health effects of a range of interventions for preventing the spread of HIV and for treating people with HIV/AIDS in the context of the millennium development goal for combating HIV/AIDS.DesignCost effectiveness analysis based on an epidemiological model.SettingAnalyses undertaken for two regions classified using the WHO epidemiological grouping-Afr-E, countries in sub-Saharan Africa with very high adult and high child mortality, and Sear-D, countries in South East Asia with high adult and high child mortality.Data sourcesBiological and behavioural parameters from clinical and observational studies and population based surveys. Intervention effects and resource inputs based on published reports, expert opinion, and the WHO-CHOICE database.Main outcome measuresCosts per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted in 2000 international dollars (Int dollars).ResultsIn both regions interventions focused on mass media, education and treatment of sexually transmitted infections for female sex workers, and treatment of sexually transmitted infections in the general population cost < Int150 dollars per DALY averted. Voluntary counselling and testing costs < Int350 dollars per DALY averted in both regions, while prevention of mother to child transmission costs < Int50 dollars per DALY averted in Afr-E but around Int850 dollars per DALY in Sear-D. School based education strategies and various antiretroviral treatment strategies cost between Int500 dollars and Int5000 dollars per DALY averted.ConclusionsReducing HIV transmission could be done most efficiently through mass media campaigns, interventions for sex workers and treatment of sexually transmitted infections where resources are most scarce. However, prevention of mother to child transmission, voluntary counselling and testing, and school based education would yield further health gains at higher budget levels and would be regarded as cost effective or highly cost effective based on standard international benchmarks. Antiretroviral therapy is at least as cost effective in improving population health as some of these interventions.
| S-EPMC1315644 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundReaching the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets to end the HIV epidemic relies on effective interventions that engage untested HIV+ individuals and retain them in care. Evidence on community-based interventions through the lens of the targets has not yet been synthesized, reflecting a knowledge gap. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to shed light on successful community-based interventions that have been effective in contributing, directly or indirectly, towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets: knowledge of HIV status, linkage to care/on treatment, and viral suppression. Linkage to care was also included in this review due to the limitations of studies.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the period 2007-2018. Eleven databases were searched to identify community-based interventions designed to improve knowledge of HIV status (in particular HIV testing), linkage to care/on treatment, and/or viral suppression. Eligible studies were classified by intervention, population, country income level, outcomes and success. Success was defined as interventions demonstrating statistical significance between intervention and control group or that reached any target by proportion; 90% testing, 81% linked to care/on treatment and 73% viral suppression.ResultsOf 82 eligible studies, 51.2% (42/82) reported on HIV testing (first 90), 20.7% (17/82) on linkage to care/ on treatment (second 90), and 45.1% (37/82) on viral suppression (third 90). In all, 67.1% (55/82) of studies reported success; 21 studies on the first 90, 9 towards linkage to care/on treatment, and 25 towards the third. By strategies, 36.6% deployed community workers/peers, 22% used combined test and treat strategies, 12.2% used educational methods, 8.5% used mobile testing, 7.3% used campaigns and 13.4% used technology. For HIV testing/linkage, combined test/treat interventions were often used, for viral suppression, educational interventions and technologies were commonly deployed. Our pooled analysis suggested that deployment of community health care workers/peer workers significantly improved viral suppression (pooled OR: 1.40 95% CI 1.06-1.86). Of the studies published after 2014, 50.0% reported metrics aligned with UNAIDS targets.ConclusionsData on linkage to care/on treatment (second target) remained weak, because many studies reported successes on the first and third targets. Stratification by targets and country income levels is informative and guides adaptation of successful interventions in comparable settings. Consistent reporting of clear metrics aligned with UNAIDS targets will aid in synergy of study data with programmatic data that will help reportage. Exploration of innovative interventions, for engagement and linkage and deployment of community/ peer workers is strongly encouraged.
| S-EPMC6636761 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe Spectrum/AIM model is used by national HIV programs and UNAIDS to prepare annual estimates of key HIV indicators. This article describes key updates to paediatric and adult models for the 2021 round of HIV estimates.MethodsPotential updates to Spectrum arise due to newly available data, new analyses of existing data, and the need for new issues to be addressed. Updates are guided by experts through the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections. Changes are tested and assessed for impact before being accepted into the final model.ResultsSpectrum tracks children living with HIV by CD4% for ages 0-4 and CD4 count for ages 5-14. Data from IeDEA treatment sites have been used to map the transition from CD4% to CD4 count at age 5. Breastfeeding patterns in sub-Saharan Africa have been updated with the latest survey data and estimates of continuation on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with breastfeeding have been revised based on recent studies. Model assumptions about the CD4 counts of people who drop out of ART have been revised to account for CD4 count increases while on treatment. If available, monthly data on numbers on ART can now be used to estimate the effects of COVID-19-related disruptions during 2020.ConclusionsThese changes are intended to provide more accurate estimates of HIV burden. The effects of these changes on paediatric indicators are small except in countries with new surveys that might have updated patterns of breastfeeding. Changes to the adult model have little effect on total new infections. AIDS-related deaths will be somewhat lower in countries that have data on ART drop out but might be increased by HIV care disruptions due to COVID-19. The updated model uses newly available data to improve the estimation of paediatric and adult HIV indicators.
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Project description:BackgroundCurrent prophylactic vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV) target two of the most oncogenic types, HPV-16 and -18, which contribute to roughly 70% of cervical cancers worldwide. Second-generation HPV vaccines include a 9-valent vaccine, which targets five additional oncogenic HPV types (i.e., 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58) that contribute to another 15-30% of cervical cancer cases. The objective of this study was to determine a range of vaccine costs for which the 9-valent vaccine would be cost-effective in comparison to the current vaccines in two less developed countries (i.e., Kenya and Uganda).Methods and findingsThe analysis was performed using a natural history disease simulation model of HPV and cervical cancer. The mathematical model simulates individual women from an early age and tracks health events and resource use as they transition through clinically-relevant health states over their lifetime. Epidemiological data on HPV prevalence and cancer incidence were used to adapt the model to Kenya and Uganda. Health benefit, or effectiveness, from HPV vaccination was measured in terms of life expectancy, and costs were measured in international dollars (I$). The incremental cost of the 9-valent vaccine included the added cost of the vaccine counterbalanced by costs averted from additional cancer cases prevented. All future costs and health benefits were discounted at an annual rate of 3% in the base case analysis. We conducted sensitivity analyses to investigate how infection with multiple HPV types, unidentifiable HPV types in cancer cases, and cross-protection against non-vaccine types could affect the potential cost range of the 9-valent vaccine. In the base case analysis in Kenya, we found that vaccination with the 9-valent vaccine was very cost-effective (i.e., had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below per-capita GDP), compared to the current vaccines provided the added cost of the 9-valent vaccine did not exceed I$9.7 per vaccinated girl. To be considered very cost-effective, the added cost per vaccinated girl could go up to I$5.2 and I$16.2 in the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times per-capita GDP where the 9-valent vaccine would be considered cost-effective, the thresholds of added costs associated with the 9-valent vaccine were I$27.3, I$14.5 and I$45.3 per vaccinated girl for the base case, worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. In Uganda, vaccination with the 9-valent vaccine was very cost-effective when the added cost of the 9-valent vaccine did not exceed I$8.3 per vaccinated girl. To be considered very cost-effective, the added cost per vaccinated girl could go up to I$4.5 and I$13.7 in the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times per-capita GDP, the thresholds of added costs associated with the 9-valent vaccine were I$23.4, I$12.6 and I$38.4 per vaccinated girl for the base case, worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively.ConclusionsThis study provides a threshold range of incremental costs associated with the 9-valent HPV vaccine that would make it a cost-effective intervention in comparison to currently available HPV vaccines in Kenya and Uganda. These prices represent a 71% and 61% increase over the price offered to the GAVI Alliance ($5 per dose) for the currently available 2- and 4-valent vaccines in Kenya and Uganda, respectively. Despite evidence of cost-effectiveness, critical challenges around affordability and feasibility of HPV vaccination and other competing needs in low-resource settings such as Kenya and Uganda remain.
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