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Characterizing risk of Ebola transmission based on frequency and type of case-contact exposures.

ABSTRACT: During the initial months of the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic, rapid geographical dissemination and intense transmission challenged response efforts across West Africa. Contextual behaviours associated with increased risk of exposure included travel to high-transmission settings, caring for sick and preparing the deceased for traditional funerals. Although such behaviours are widespread in West Africa, high-transmission pockets were observed. Superspreading and clustering are typical phenomena in infectious disease outbreaks, as a relatively small number of transmission chains are often responsible for the majority of events. Determining the characteristics of contacts at greatest risk of developing disease and of cases with greatest transmission potential could therefore help curb propagation of infection. Our analysis of contact tracing data from Montserrado County, Liberia, suggested that the probability of transmission was 4.5 times higher for individuals who were reported as having contact with multiple cases. The probability of individuals developing disease was not significantly associated with age or sex of their source case but was higher when they were in the same household as the infectious case. Surveillance efforts for rapidly identifying symptomatic individuals and effectively messaged campaigns encouraging household members to bring the sick to designated treatment centres without administration of home care could mitigate transmission.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'.

SUBMITTER: Skrip LA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5394639 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Characterizing risk of Ebola transmission based on frequency and type of case-contact exposures.

Skrip Laura A LA Fallah Mosoka P MP Gaffney Stephen G SG Yaari Rami R Yamin Dan D Huppert Amit A Bawo Luke L Nyenswah Tolbert T Galvani Alison P AP

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences 20170501 1721

During the initial months of the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic, rapid geographical dissemination and intense transmission challenged response efforts across West Africa. Contextual behaviours associated with increased risk of exposure included travel to high-transmission settings, caring for sick and preparing the deceased for traditional funerals. Although such behaviours are widespread in West Africa, high-transmission pockets were observed. Superspreading and clustering are typical phenomena in in ...[more]

PMID: 28396472

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Project description:Reported urban malaria cases are increasing in Latin America, however, evidence of such trend remains insufficient. Here, we propose an integrated approach that allows characterizing malaria transmission at the rural-to-urban interface by combining epidemiological, entomological, and parasite genotyping methods.A descriptive study that combines active (ACD), passive (PCD), and reactive (RCD) case detection was performed in urban and peri-urban neighborhoods of Quibdó, Colombia. Heads of households were interviewed and epidemiological surveys were conducted to assess malaria prevalence and identify potential risk factors. Sixteen primary cases, eight by ACD and eight by PCD were recruited for RCD. Using the RCD strategy, prevalence of 1% by microscopy (6/604) and 9% by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) (52/604) were found. A total of 73 houses and 289 volunteers were screened leading to 41 secondary cases, all of them in peri-urban settings (14% prevalence). Most secondary cases were genetically distinct from primary cases indicating that there were independent occurrences. Plasmodium vivax was the predominant species (76.3%, 71/93), most of them being asymptomatic (46/71). Urban and peri-urban neighborhoods had significant sociodemographic differences. Twenty-four potential breeding sites were identified, all in peri-urban areas. The predominant vectors for 1,305 adults were Anopheles nuneztovari (56,2%) and An. Darlingi (42,5%). One An. nuneztovari specimen was confirmed naturally infected with P. falciparum by ELISA.This study found no evidence supporting the existence of urban malaria transmission in Quibdó. RCD strategy was more efficient for identifying malaria cases than ACD alone in areas where malaria transmission is variable and unstable. Incorporating parasite genotyping allows discovering hidden patterns of malaria transmission that cannot be detected otherwise. We propose to use the term "focal case" for those primary cases that lead to discovery of secondary but genetically unrelated malaria cases indicating undetected malaria transmission.

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Characterizing risk of Ebola transmission based on frequency and type of case-contact exposures.

Publications

Characterizing risk of Ebola transmission based on frequency and type of case-contact exposures.

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