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A new multiparameter integrated MELD model for prognosis of HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure.

ABSTRACT: Hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is one of the most deadly diseases. Many models have been proposed to evaluate the prognosis of it. However, these models are still controversial. In this study, we aimed to incorporate some characters into model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) to establish a new reliable and feasible model for the prognosis of HBV-ACLF.A total of 530 HBV-ACLF patients who had received antiviral therapy were enrolled into a retrospective study and divided into the training cohort (300) and validation cohort (230). Logistic regression analysis was used to establish a model to predict the 3-month mortality from the patients in the training cohort, and then, the new model was evaluated in the validation cohort.Except for MELD score, 4 other independent factors, namely degree of hepatic encephalopathy (HE), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), white blood cell (WBC) count, and age, were important for the new model called HBV-ACLF MELD (HAM) model: R?=?0.174?×?MELD?+?1.106?×?HE?-?(0.003?×?AFP)?+?(0.237?×?WBC)?+?(0.103?×?Age)?-?11.388. The areas under receiver-operating characteristic curve of HAM in the training and validation cohort were 0.894 and 0.868, respectively, which were significantly higher than those of other 7 models. With the best cut-off value of -1.191, HAM achieved higher sensitivity and negative predictive value.We developed a new model that has a great prognostic value of the 3-month mortality of patients with HBV-ACLF.

SUBMITTER: Luo Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5400346 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A new multiparameter integrated MELD model for prognosis of HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Luo Yue Y Xu Yun Y Li Mingming M Xie Ya Y Gong Guozhong G

Medicine 20160801 34

Hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is one of the most deadly diseases. Many models have been proposed to evaluate the prognosis of it. However, these models are still controversial. In this study, we aimed to incorporate some characters into model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) to establish a new reliable and feasible model for the prognosis of HBV-ACLF.A total of 530 HBV-ACLF patients who had received antiviral therapy were enrolled into a retrospective stud ...[more]

PMID: 27559979

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Project description:Prompt and accurate prediction of the outcome is the key to make correct medical decision and to reduce the mortality in patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Increasing evidence have certified that small, noncoding microRNAs (miRNAs) play critically regulatory roles in the pathogenesis of liver diseases. However, it remains unclear whether and how miRNAs involve in the prognosis of ACLF.Microarray analysis was performed to characterize the miRNA expression profiles in liver tissues from 1 HBV-related ACLF patient and 1 matched healthy control. Nine miRNAs with at least 5 folds difference between these 2 persons were picked out. The present prospective study involving 39 HBV-related ACLF patients including 20 recovered and 19 nonrecovered patients, which include death (n = 9) and liver transplantation (n = 10). The serum expression of these miRNAs detected by quantitative real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (qRT-RCR) was then compared between the 2 groups. Moreover, the correlation between the serum miRNAs and the prognostic indexes for ACLF was analyzed.The result of microarray analysis showed 9 miRNAs had different expression in liver tissues of ACLF patient compared with healthy control (upregulated: miRNA-130a, -21, -143, and -200a; downregulated: miRNA-486-5p, -192, -148a, -122, and -194). Unlike the expression profiles in liver tissue, 8 serum miRNAs except miRNA-194 were markedly upregulated in ACLF patients (P < 0.05). Remarkably, the serum expression of miRNA-130a and miRNA-486-5p was higher in recovered than nonrecovered ACLF patients (P < 0.05). Especially, the serum miRNA-130a was negatively correlated with international normalized ratio, prothrombin time, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and positively correlated with prothrombin time activity. The AUC for recovered versus nonrecovered patients of miRNA-130a was 0.741 (P = 0.02).miRNA-130a might be a useful prognosis biomarker in patients with HBV-related ACLF.

Project description:BACKGROUNDHBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is hallmarked by high short-term mortality rates, calling for accurate prognostic biomarkers for initial risk stratification.METHODSThree tandem mass tag-labeled (TMT-labeled) quantitative proteomic studies were performed on 10 patients with HBV-related acute hepatic decompensation and on 20 patients with HBV-ACLF. Candidate biomarkers were preliminarily verified in a cross-sectional cohort (n = 144) and further confirmed in 2 prospective cohorts (n = 207 and n = 148).RESULTSPlasminogen, a potential prognostic biomarker for HBV-ACLF, was identified by TMT quantitative proteomics and preliminarily verified in the cross-sectional cohort. Further validation with a prospective cohort (n = 207) showed that plasminogen levels at admission were significantly lower (P < 0.001) in HBV-ACLF nonsurvivors than in survivors. The cumulative survival duration of patients with high plasminogen levels was significantly longer (P < 0.001) than that of patients with low plasminogen levels. During hospitalization, plasminogen levels significantly decreased (P = 0.008) in the deterioration group but significantly increased (P < 0.001) in the improvement group. Additionally, plasminogen levels gradually increased in survivors but gradually decreased in nonsurvivors. The P5 score, a prognostic panel incorporating plasminogen levels, hepatic encephalopathy occurrence, age, international normalized ratio (INR), and total bilirubin, was significantly superior to the Child-Pugh, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), Chronic Liver Failure Consortium ACLF (CLIF-C ACLF), Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B (COSSH), and HINT (a prognostic score based on hepatic encephalopathy occurrence, INR, neutrophil count, and thyroid-stimulating hormone) scores (all P < 0.05). The performances of the plasminogen level and P5 score were validated in a second multicenter, prospective cohort (n = 148).CONCLUSIONSPlasminogen is a promising prognostic biomarker for HBV-ACLF, and sequential plasminogen measurements could profile the clinical course of HBV-ACLF. P5 is a high-performance prognostic score for HBV-ACLF.FUNDINGThe National Key Research and Development Program (2017YFC1200204); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81400589, 81600497); the Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81121002); the Chinese High-Tech Research and Development Programs (2012AA020204); the National S&T Major Project (2012ZX10002004); and the Zhejiang Provincial Medicine and Health Science and Technology Project (2016147735).

Dataset Information

A new multiparameter integrated MELD model for prognosis of HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Publications

A new multiparameter integrated MELD model for prognosis of HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure.

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