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Child-Turcotte-Pugh Class is Best at Stratifying Risk in Variceal Hemorrhage: Analysis of a US Multicenter Prospective Study.

ABSTRACT: GOALS/BACKGROUND:Data on acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) in the United States is limited and the best method to stratify risk is not clear. Taking advantage of a prospective US cohort study, we aimed to (1) describe clinical outcomes of AVH and their predictors; (2) compare predictors of 6-week mortality. STUDY:Prospective 15-center US cohort of patients with cirrhosis presenting with endoscopically proven AVH, all of whom received antibiotics, vapreotide (a somatostain analog) infusion and endoscopic band ligation. Patients were enrolled between August 2006 and April 2008. Primary outcome was 6-week mortality. Secondary outcome was 5-day treatment failure. The prognostic value of Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and a recent recalibrated MELD were compared. RESULTS:Seventy eligible patient were enrolled; 18 (26%) patients died within 6-weeks of index bleed. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were compared between survivors and nonsurvivors. Multivariate models showed that admission CTP or the MELD score (separately) were independent predictors of survival. The discriminative values of CTP (area under receiver operating characteristic: 0.75) and MELD (area under receiver operating characteristic: 0.79) were good and not significantly different (P=0.27). However, calibration (correlation between observed and predicted mortality) test was significantly better for CTP than for MELD, with the recently described recalibrated MELD model having the worst agreement. Predicted mortality for CTP-A was <10%, CTP-B 10% to 30%; and CTP-C >33%. CONCLUSIONS:AVH mortality of 26% in the United States is in the upper range limit compared with recent series but may be due to inclusion of patients with more advanced cirrhosis. CTP score has the best overall performance in the prediction of 6-week mortality and is best at stratifying risk.

SUBMITTER: Fortune BE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5403609 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May/Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Child-Turcotte-Pugh Class is Best at Stratifying Risk in Variceal Hemorrhage: Analysis of a US Multicenter Prospective Study.

Fortune Brett E BE Garcia-Tsao Guadalupe G Ciarleglio Maria M Deng Yanhong Y Fallon Michael B MB Sigal Samuel S Chalasani Naga P NP Lim Joseph K JK Reuben Adrian A Vargas Hugo E HE Abrams Gary G Lewis Michele D MD Hassanein Tarek T Trotter James F JF Sanyal Arun J AJ Beavers Kimberly L KL Ganger Daniel D Thuluvath Paul J PJ Grace Norman D ND Groszmann Roberto J RJ

Journal of clinical gastroenterology 20170501 5

<h4>Goals/background</h4>Data on acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) in the United States is limited and the best method to stratify risk is not clear. Taking advantage of a prospective US cohort study, we aimed to (1) describe clinical outcomes of AVH and their predictors; (2) compare predictors of 6-week mortality.<h4>Study</h4>Prospective 15-center US cohort of patients with cirrhosis presenting with endoscopically proven AVH, all of whom received antibiotics, vapreotide (a somatostain analog) in ...[more]

PMID: 27779613

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Project description:The results of endoscopic treatment with elastic band ligation for esophageal variceal bleeding in patients with Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis remain poor. In comparison with treatment with elastic band ligation, we have found lower rates of rebleeding and mortality with n-butyl-2-cyanoacrylate injections. Thus, the aim of the current study was to describe our unit's 10 years of experience with injection of n-butyl-2-cyanoacrylate to control esophageal variceal ruptures in patients with Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis.A single-center, retrospective study was conducted. Sixty-three patients with Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis had been admitted to the center with an acute episode of esophageal variceal bleeding. All were treated with injection of n-butyl-2-cyanoacrylate. The patients were assigned to 1 of 2 groups according to their Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis scores: group I (score range, 10 through 13 points) and group II (score, 14 or 15 points). The 3 variables studied were rates of initial failure to control bleeding, failure to prevent rebleeding (secondary prophylaxis), and mortality. Patients in the 2 groups (group I, n = 50; group II, n = 13) had similar characteristics.Bleeding was successfully controlled in almost 75 % of the patients during the first 5 days after treatment, with no significant differences observed between groups I and II. There were no significant differences between the 2 groups with respect to mortality rate for the first 5 days after treatment. Thirty-four patients (54 %) were free of bleeding at 6 weeks after treatment, with a significant difference noted between the groups: group I, 64 %, versus group II, 15.4 % (P < 0.001). The overall mortality rate was 44.4 %, with a significant difference noted between the groups: group I, 34 %, versus group II, 84.6 % (P < 0.001).Endoscopic injection of n-butyl-2-cyanoacrylate is a valid treatment option to control esophageal variceal bleeding in patients with a Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis score in the range of 10 through 13 points.

Project description:Background & methodsThe Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is a widely used and validated predictor of long-term survival in cirrhosis. The CTP score is a composite of 5 subscores, 3 based on objective clinical laboratory values and 2 subjective variables quantifying the severity of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy. To date, no system to quantify CTP score from administrative databases has been validated. The Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease study is a multicenter collaborative study to evaluate the outcomes and costs of hepatocellular carcinoma in the U.S. Veterans Health Administration. We developed and validated an algorithm to calculate electronic CTP (eCTP) scores by using data from the Veterans Health Administration Corporate Data Warehouse.MethodsMultiple algorithms for determining each CTP subscore from International Classification of Diseases version 9, Common Procedural Terminology, pharmacy, and laboratory data were devised and tested in 2 patient cohorts. For each cohort, 6 site investigators (Boston, Bronx, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and West Haven VA Medical Centers) were provided cases from which to determine validity of diagnosis, laboratory data, and clinical assessment of ascites and encephalopathy. The optimal algorithm (designated eCTP) was then applied to 30,840 cirrhotic patients alive in the first quarter of 2008 for whom 5-year overall and transplant-free survival data were available. The ability of the eCTP score and other disease severity scores (Charlson-Deyo index, Veterans Aging Cohort Study index, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and Cirrhosis Comorbidity) to predict survival was then assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression.ResultsSpearman correlations for administrative and investigator validated laboratory data in the HCC and cirrhotic cohorts, respectively, were 0.85 and 0.92 for bilirubin, 0.92 and 0.87 for albumin, and 0.84 and 0.86 for international normalized ratio. In the HCC cohort, the overall eCTP score matched 96% of patients to within 1 point of the chart-validated CTP score (Spearman correlation, 0.81). In the cirrhosis cohort, 98% were matched to within 1 point of their actual CTP score (Spearman, 0.85). When applied to a cohort of 30,840 patients with cirrhosis, each unit change in eCTP was associated with 39% increase in the relative risk of death or transplantation. The Harrell C statistic for the eCTP (0.678) was numerically higher than those for other disease severity indices for predicting 5-year transplant-free survival. Adding other predictive models to the eCTP resulted in minimal differences in its predictive performance.ConclusionWe developed and validated an algorithm to extrapolate an eCTP score from data in a large administrative database with excellent correlation to actual CTP score on chart review. When applied to an administrative database, this algorithm is a highly useful predictor of survival when compared with multiple other published liver disease severity indices.

Dataset Information

Child-Turcotte-Pugh Class is Best at Stratifying Risk in Variceal Hemorrhage: Analysis of a US Multicenter Prospective Study.

Publications

Child-Turcotte-Pugh Class is Best at Stratifying Risk in Variceal Hemorrhage: Analysis of a US Multicenter Prospective Study.

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