Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Risk Factor Analysis of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Associated with Under-Five Morbidity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China.
Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Risk Factor Analysis of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Associated with Under-Five Morbidity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China.
Project description:BackgroundHand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease in China and occurs mostly in infants and children. Beijing is a densely populated megacity, in which HFMD has been increasing in the last decade. The aim of this study was to quantify spatio-temporal characteristics of HFMD and the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD incidence in Beijing, China.MethodsDaily counts of HFMD cases from January 2010 to December 2012 were obtained from the Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC). Seasonal trend decomposition with Loess smoothing was used to explore seasonal patterns and temporal trends of HFMD. Bayesian spatiotemporal Poisson regression models were used to quantify spatiotemporal patterns of HFMD incidence and associations with meteorological factors.ResultsThere were 114,777 HFMD cases reported to Beijing CDC from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2012 and the raw incidence was 568.6 per 100,000 people. May to July was the peak period of HFMD incidence each year. Low-incidence townships were clustered in central, northeast and southwest regions of Beijing. Mean temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and sunshine hours were all positively associated with HFMD. The effect of wind velocity was significant with a RR of 3.30 (95%CI: 2.37, 4.60) per meter per second increase, as was sunshine hours with a RR of 1.20 (95%CI: 1.02, 1.40) per 1 hour increase.ConclusionsThe distribution of HFMD in Beijing was spatiotemporally heterogeneous, and was associated with meteorological factors. Meteorological monitoring could be incorporated into prediction and surveillance of HFMD in Beijing.
Project description:Air pollution, including particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution, is extremely harmful to the environment as well as human health. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) Region has experienced heavy PM2.5 pollution within China. In this study, a six-year time series (January 2013-December 2018) of PM2.5 mass concentration data from 102 air quality monitoring stations were studied to understand the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of the BTH region. The average annual PM2.5 mass concentration in the BTH region decreased from 98.9 μg/m3 in 2013 to 64.9 μg/m3 in 2017. Therefore, China has achieved its Air Pollution Prevention and Control Plan goal of reducing the concentration of fine particulate matter in the BTH region by 25% by 2017. The PM2.5 pollution in BTH plain areas showed a more significant change than mountains areas, with the highest PM2.5 mass concentration in winter and the lowest in summer. The results of spatial autocorrelation and cluster analyses showed that the PM2.5 mass concentration in the BTH region from 2013-2018 showed a significant spatial agglomeration, and that spatial distribution characteristics were high in the south and low in the north. Changes in PM2.5 mass concentration in the BTH region were affected by both socio-economic factors and meteorological factors. Our results can provide a point of reference for making PM2.5 pollution control decisions.
Project description:Land prices are the key problem of urban land management, with prices of residential land being the most sensitive and the strongest social reflection among the different land types. Exploring spatial and temporal variation of residential land prices and the effect of land market factors on residential land prices can help the government formulate targeted regulations and policies. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of residential land prices and the factors influencing the land market in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on land transaction data from 2014-2017 using exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results show the following: ① Residential land prices in Beijing and Tianjin are significantly higher than those in other regions, while Zhangjiakou, Chengde, and western mountainous areas have the lowest residential land prices. Over time, a development trend of residential land price polycentricity gradually emerged, and the locational correlation has gradually increased. ② Under the influence of the land finance model of local governments in China, three factors, namely, the land stock utilization rate, revenue from residential land transfers, and the growth of residential land transaction areas, have significantly contributed to the increase in residential land prices. ③ Under the land market supply and demand mechanism and government management, four indicators, namely, the land supply rate, the per capita residential land supply area, the degree of marketization of the residential land supply, and the frequency of residential land transactions, have suppressed the rise in residential land prices. ④ The overall effect of land market factors on residential land prices in the central and northern regions of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is stronger than that in the southern regions, which may be related to the more active land market and stricter macromanagement policies in Beijing, Tianjin and surrounding areas.
Project description:The morbidity and mortality of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) are increasing in Beijing, China. Previous studies have indicated an association between incidents of HFMD and weather factors. However, the seasonal influence of these factors on the disease is not yet understood, and their relationship with the enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16) viruses are not well documented. We analysed 84,502 HFMD cases from 2008 to 2011 in Beijing to explore the seasonal influence of weather factors (average temperature [AT], average relative humidity [ARH], total precipitation [TP] and average wind speed [AWS]) on incidents of HFMD by using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results indicated that weather factors differ significantly in their influence on HFMD depending on the season. AT had the greatest effect among the four weather factors, and while the influence of AT and AWS was greater in the summer than in the winter, the influence of TP was positive in the summer and negative in the winter. ARH was negatively correlated with HFMD. Also, we observed more EV71-associated cases than CV-A16 but there is no convincing evidence to show significant differences between the influences of the weather factors on EV71 and CV-A16.
Project description:The development of the urban agglomeration has caused drastic changes in landscape pattern and increased anthropogenic heat emission and lead to the urban heat island (UHI) effect more serious. Therefore, understanding the interpretation ability of landscape pattern on the thermal environment has gradually become an important focus. In the study, the spatial heterogeneity of the surface temperature was analyzed using the hot-spot analysis method which was improved by changing the calculation of space weight. Then the interpretation ability of a single landscape and a combination of landscapes to explain surface temperature was explored using the Pearson correlation coefficient and ordinary least squares regression from different spatial levels, and the spatial heterogeneity of the interpretation ability was explored using geographical weighted regression under the optimal granularity (5 × 5 km). The results showed that: (1) The hot spots of surface temperature were distributed mainly in the plains and on the southeast hills, where the landscapes primarily include artificial landscape (ArtLS) and farmland landscape (FarmLS). The cold spots were distributed mainly in the northern hills, which are dominated by forest landscape (ForLS). (2) On the whole, the interpretative ability of ForLS, FarmLS, ArtLS, green space landscape pattern, and ecological landscape pattern to explain surface temperature was stronger, whereas the interpretative ability of grassland landscape and wetland landscape to explain surface temperature was weaker. The interpretation ability of landscape pattern to explain surface temperature was obviously different in different areas. Specifically, the ability was stronger in the hills than in the plain and plateau. The results are intended to provide a scientific basis for adjusting landscape structural, optimizing landscape patterns, alleviating the UHI effect, and coordinating the balance among cities within the urban agglomeration.
Project description:Assessing and quantifying atmospheric vulnerability is a key issue in urban environmental protection and management. This paper integrated the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy synthesis evaluation and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis into an Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity (ESA) framework to quantitatively assess atmospheric environment vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with spatial and temporal comparisons. The elaboration of the relationships between atmospheric environment vulnerability and indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity supports enable analysis of the atmospheric environment vulnerability. Our findings indicate that the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the BTH region exhibits obvious spatial heterogeneity, which is caused by regional diversity in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indices. The results of atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment and the cause analysis can provide guidance to pick out key control regions and recognize vulnerable indicators for study sites. The framework developed in this paper can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to support environmental management.
Project description:The some biomarkers can be found by pairwise comparison. They can distinguish between extremely severe Hand,foot and mouth disease and mild Hand,foot and mouth disease,moreover,they can applied to diagnose extremely severe Hand,foot and mouth disease mild Hand,foot and mouth disease vs.control; extremely severe Hand,foot and mouth disease vs.control; extremely severe Hand,foot and mouth disease vs.mild Hand,foot and mouth disease,verification by qRT-PCR
Project description:Large outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have repeatedly occurred in mainland of China since 2007. In this study, we investigated the epidemiological and aetiological characteristics of HFMD in Shijiazhuang City, one of the biggest northern cities of China. A total of 57,173 clinical HFMD cases, including 911 severe and 32 fatal cases, were reported in Shijiazhuang City during 2009-2012. The disease incidence peaked during March-July, with a small increase in the number of cases observed in November of each year. Seventeen potential HFMD-causing enterovirus serotypes were detected, with the most frequent serotypes being EV-A71 and CV-A16. CV-A10 was also a frequently detected causative serotype, and was associated with the second largest number of severe HFMD cases, following EV-A71. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that all EV-A71, CV-A16 and CV-A10 strains from Shijiazhuang City had co-evolved and co-circulated with those from other Chinese provinces. Our findings underscore the need for enhanced surveillance and molecular detection for HFMD, and suggest that EV-A71 vaccination may be an effective intervention strategy for HFMD prevention and vaccines against CV-A10 and CV-A16 are also urgently needed.
Project description:The some biomarkers can be found by pairwise comparison. They can distinguish between extremely severe Hand,foot and mouth disease and mild Hand,foot and mouth disease,moreover,they can applied to diagnose extremely severe Hand,foot and mouth disease
Project description:Exploring the operation status and patterns of urban land markets is an important theoretical and practical topic for promoting coordinated socio-economic development. In this study, the operation status of the residential land market in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the characteristics of its pattern were analyzed using the composite index method and the 3σ rule of the normal distribution and taking the 174 counties in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, China, as the research objects. The results show that ① Beijing, Tianjin, Langfang, Zhangjiakou, and Baoding residential land market state composite indexes are all in the middle to upper levels in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster, while Qinhuangdao, Handan, and Chengde residential land market state composite indexes are generally low. The harmony between the residential land price and national economy, the market supply and demand balance, and the structural balance may become the main factors affecting the healthy development of the residential land market in Beijing and Tianjin. ② The proportion of counties with "healthy" residential land market in all dimensions and overall market status reached over 64%, and the residential land market in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is running well. The rapid increase in residential land prices from 2016 to 2020 was an important driver of the increased heat in the residential land market across the region. ③ The residential land market in the counties around Beijing and Tianjin is significantly hotter than in other regions, and there is an obvious polarization effect in the operation state of the residential land market in the Beijing-Tianjin region. The residential land market is generally cold in the counties in the southern and northeastern parts of the region and other peripheral areas, and there is a risk of marginalization in the development of the residential land market in the counties in the peripheral areas. ④ Both the hot and cold residential land market states exhibit spatial clustering characteristics. Most of the clusters are not consistent with the municipal administrative boundaries, and the states of the residential land market in neighboring counties are very similar.