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Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK.

ABSTRACT: Sentinel sites, where problems can be identified early or investigated in detail, form an important part of planning for exotic disease outbreaks in humans, livestock and plants. Key questions are: how many sentinels are required, where should they be positioned and how effective are they at rapidly identifying new invasions? The sentinel apiary system for invasive honeybee pests and diseases illustrates the costs and benefits of such approaches. Here, we address these issues with two mathematical modelling approaches. The first approach is generic and uses probabilistic arguments to calculate the average number of affected sites when an outbreak is first detected, providing rapid and general insights that we have applied to a range of infectious diseases. The second approach uses a computationally intensive, stochastic, spatial model to simulate multiple outbreaks and to determine appropriate sentinel locations for UK apiaries. Both models quantify the anticipated increase in success of sentinel sites as their number increases and as non-sentinel sites become worse at detection; however, unexpectedly sentinels perform relatively better for faster growing outbreaks. Additionally, the spatial model allows us to quantify the substantial role that carefully positioned sentinels can play in the rapid detection of exotic invasions.

SUBMITTER: Keeling MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5414905 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK.

Keeling Matt J MJ Datta Samik S Franklin Daniel N DN Flatman Ivor I Wattam Andy A Brown Mike M Budge Giles E GE

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20170401 129

Sentinel sites, where problems can be identified early or investigated in detail, form an important part of planning for exotic disease outbreaks in humans, livestock and plants. Key questions are: how many sentinels are required, where should they be positioned and how effective are they at rapidly identifying new invasions? The sentinel apiary system for invasive honeybee pests and diseases illustrates the costs and benefits of such approaches. Here, we address these issues with two mathematic ...[more]

PMID: 28446703

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Project description:Introduced brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) and rat species (Rattus spp.) are major vertebrate pests in New Zealand, with impacts on conservation and agriculture being managed largely through poisoning operations. Aerial distribution of baits containing sodium fluoroacetate (1080) has been refined to maximise cost effectiveness and minimise environmental impact, but this method is strongly opposed by some as it is perceived as being indiscriminate. Although ground based control enables precise placement of baits, operations are often more than twice as costly as aerial control, mainly due to the high labour costs. We investigated a new approach to ground based control that combined aerial distribution of non-toxic 'prefeed' baits followed by sparse distribution of toxic baits at regular intervals along the GPS tracked prefeeding flight paths. This approach was tested in two field trials in which both 1080 baits and cholecalciferol baits were used in separate areas. Effectiveness of the approach, assessed primarily using 'chewcards', was compared with that of scheduled aerial 1080 operations that were conducted in outlying areas of both trials. Contractors carrying out ground based control were able to follow the GPS tracks of aerial prefeeding flight lines very accurately, and with 1080 baits achieved very high levels of kill of possums and rats similar to those achieved by aerial 1080 baiting. Cholecalciferol was less effective in the first trial, but by doubling the amount of cholecalciferol bait used in the second trial, few possums or rats survived. By measuring the time taken to complete ground baiting from GPS tracks, we predicted that the method (using 1080 baits) would be similarly cost effective to aerial 1080 operations for controlling possums and rats, and considerably less expensive than typical current costs of ground based control. The main limitations to the use of the method will be access to, and size of, the operational site, along with topography and vegetation density.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:Streptococcus pneumoniae is one of the frequently isolated organisms and an important aetiological agent of invasive bacterial diseases (IBD) like pneumonia, meningitis and sepsis. As a measure to control the burden of IBD, the Government of India introduced Pneumoccocal Conjugate Vaccine-13 (PCV-13) in the Universal Immunization Program in high burden districts of five states in a phased manner from 2017 onwards. It is essential to understand the trend of circulating pneumococcal serotypes associated with IBD in the prevaccination and postvaccination scenarios to decide on the expansion of vaccination programmes and PCV reformulation. This manuscript describes the protocol for hospital-based sentinel surveillance for S. pneumoniae and other organisms causing IBD across various geographical regions in India. METHODS AND ANALYSIS:Hospital-based surveillance is established in selected hospitals to recruit children aged 1-59 months with symptoms of pneumonia and other IBD. Diagnostic criteria were adapted from standard WHO case definitions. Case Report Forms (CRFs) are used to collect data from the enrolled children. Blood, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and other normally sterile body fluids are collected and subjected to microscopy, cytology, latex agglutination, biochemistry, bacteriological culture and real-time PCR as applicable. Pneumococcal isolates are serotyped and tested for assessing antimicrobial resistance patterns. Data will be analysed by simple descriptive statistics to estimate the proportion of pneumonia and other IBD due to S. pneumoniae, Hemophilus influenzae type b and Neisseria meningitidis. Prevalence of bacterial infection, circulating pneumococcal serotypes, antibiotic resistance patterns, serotype variability across seasons and regions will be described in terms of percentage with 95% confidence interval. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:The institutional review boards of the coordinating centre, all sentinel sites, regional and national reference laboratories approved the project. The results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and shared with stakeholders for deciding on revising vaccination strategy appropriately.

Dataset Information

Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK.

Publications

Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK.

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