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Multicenter prospective evaluation of the reliability of the combined use of two models to predict non-sentinel lymph node status in breast cancer patients with metastatic sentinel lymph nodes: the MSKCC nomogram and the Tenon score. Results of the NOTEGS study.

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to prospectively evaluate the combined use of The Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center nomogram and Tenon score to select, in patients with metastatic sentinel lymph node (SN), those at low risk of metastatic non-SN for whom additional axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) could be avoided.From January 2011 to July 2012, a prospective non-interventional nationwide study was conducted (NCT01509963). We sought to identify the false reassurance rate (FRR, a negative test result is false) in patients with both a ?10% probability of metastatic non-SN with the MSKCC nomogram and a Tenon score ?3.5 (low risk): the proportion of patients with metastatic non-SN at additional ALND. Our hypothesis was that these patients would have a FRR?5%.Data on 2822 patients with breast cancer from 53 institutions were prospectively recorded. At least one SN was metastatic (isolated tumour cells, micro- or macrometastases) in 696 patients (24.7%). Among patients with ALND and complete data to calculate combined risk (n=504), 67 and 437 patients had low and high combined risk, respectively. Patients at low risk had less ALND (47%) compared to patients at high risk (P<0.001). This study did not meet its primary objective because the FRR in patients with low risk was 16.4% (11 out of 67) (95% confidence interval (CI): 9.7-23.1%). In the high-risk group, 33.9% (148 out of 437) (95% CI: 29.6-38.4%) had non-SN metastases (P=0.004).In this controlled prospective study, metastatic SN patients with both a ?10% probability of metastatic non-SN with the MSKCC nomogram and a Tenon score ?3.5 failed to identify patients at low risk of metastatic non-SN when completion ALND was not systematic.

SUBMITTER: Rouzier R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5418441 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Multicenter prospective evaluation of the reliability of the combined use of two models to predict non-sentinel lymph node status in breast cancer patients with metastatic sentinel lymph nodes: the MSKCC nomogram and the Tenon score. Results of the NOTEGS study.

Rouzier Roman R Uzan Catherine C Rousseau Alexandra A Guillot Eugénie E Zilberman Sonia S Meyer Charles C Estevez Pablo P Dupre Pierre-Francois PF Kere David D Doridot Virginie V D'halluin Gauthier G Fritel Xavier X Pouget Nicolas N Jankowski Clémentine C Mazouni Chafika C Simon Tabassome T Coutant Charles C

British journal of cancer 20170321 9

<h4>Background</h4>The purpose of this study was to prospectively evaluate the combined use of The Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center nomogram and Tenon score to select, in patients with metastatic sentinel lymph node (SN), those at low risk of metastatic non-SN for whom additional axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) could be avoided.<h4>Methods</h4>From January 2011 to July 2012, a prospective non-interventional nationwide study was conducted (NCT01509963). We sought to identify the false ...[more]

PMID: 28324891

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Project description:Background The rate of breast-conserving surgery is very low in China, compared with that in developed countries; most breast cancer patients receive mastectomy. It is great important to explore the possibility of omitting axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) in China. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram based on elastography for the prediction of the risk of non-SLN (NSLN) metastasis in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive SLNs. Methods A total of 601 breast cancer patients were initially recruited. According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 118 early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive SLNs were finally enrolled and were assigned to the training cohort (n=82) and the validation cohort (n=36), respectively. In the training cohort, the independent predictors were screened by logistic regression analysis and then were used to conducted the nomogram for the prediction of NSLN metastasis in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive SLNs. The calibration curves, concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and Decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to verified the performance of the nomogram. Results The multivariable analysis showed that the enrolled patients with positive HER2 expression (OR=6.179, P=0.013), Ki67≥14% (OR=8.976, P=0.015), larger lesion size (OR=1.038, P=0.045), and higher Emean (OR=2.237, P=0.006) were observed to be the independent factors of NSLN metastasis. Based on the above four independent predictors, a nomogram was conducted to predict the risk of the NSLN metastasis in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive SLNs. The nomogram showed good discrimination in the prediction of NSLN metastasis, with bias-corrected C-index of 0.855 (95% CI, 0.754-0.956) and 0.853 (95% CI, 0.724-0.983) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Furthermore, the AUC was 0.877 (95%CI: 0.776- 0.978) and 0.861 (95%CI: 0.732-0.991), respectively, indicating a good performance of the nomogram. The calibration curve suggested a satisfactory agreement between the predictive and actual risk in both the training (χ2 = 11.484, P=0.176, HL test) and validation (χ2 = 6.247, p = 0.620, HL test) cohorts, and the obvious clinical nets were revealed by DCA. Conclusions We conducted a satisfactory nomogram model to evaluate the risk of NSLN metastasis in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 SLN metastases. This model could be considered as an ancillary tool to help such patients to be selectively exempted from ALND.

Dataset Information

Multicenter prospective evaluation of the reliability of the combined use of two models to predict non-sentinel lymph node status in breast cancer patients with metastatic sentinel lymph nodes: the MSKCC nomogram and the Tenon score. Results of the NOTEGS study.

Publications

Multicenter prospective evaluation of the reliability of the combined use of two models to predict non-sentinel lymph node status in breast cancer patients with metastatic sentinel lymph nodes: the MSKCC nomogram and the Tenon score. Results of the NOTEGS study.

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