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Predictors of Dengue-Related Mortality and Disease Severity in a Tertiary Care Center in North India.

ABSTRACT: There is lack of reliable predictors of disease severity and mortality in dengue. The present study was carried out to identify these predictors during the 2015 outbreak in India.This prospective observational study included confirmed adult dengue patients hospitalized between August and November 2015 in a tertiary care centre in New Delhi, India. Appropriate statistical tests were used to compare clinicolaboratory characteristics, derive predictors of severe disease and mortality, and compute a predictive score for mortality. Serotyping was done.Data of 369 patients were analyzed (mean age, 30.9 years; 67% males). Of these, 198 (54%) patients had dengue fever, 125 (34%) had dengue hemorrhagic fever (grade 1 or 2), and 46 (12%) developed dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Twenty-two (6%) patients died. Late presentation to the hospital (?5 days after onset) and dyspnea at rest were identified as independent predictors of severe disease. Age ?24 years, dyspnea at rest and altered sensorium were identified as independent predictors of mortality. A clinical risk score was developed (12*age + 14*sensorium + 10*dyspnea), which, if ?22, predicted mortality with a high sensitivity (81.8%) and specificity (79.2%). The predominant serotypes in Delhi (2015) were dengue virus DENV2 and DENV4.Age ?24 years, dyspnea at rest, and altered sensorium were identified as independent predictors of mortality. Platelet counts did not determine outcome in dengue patients. Timely referral/access to healthcare is important. The clinical risk score for mortality prediction that was developed in this study can be used in all healthcare settings, after validation in larger cohorts.

SUBMITTER: Jain S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5419201 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors of Dengue-Related Mortality and Disease Severity in a Tertiary Care Center in North India.

Jain Siddharth S Mittal Abhenil A Sharma Surendra Kumar SK Upadhyay Ashish Datt AD Pandey Ravindra Mohan RM Sinha Sanjeev S Soneja Manish M Biswas Ashutosh A Jadon Ranveer Singh RS Kakade Mahadeo B MB Dayaraj Cecilia C

Open forum infectious diseases 20170505 2

<h4>Background</h4>There is lack of reliable predictors of disease severity and mortality in dengue. The present study was carried out to identify these predictors during the 2015 outbreak in India.<h4>Methods</h4>This prospective observational study included confirmed adult dengue patients hospitalized between August and November 2015 in a tertiary care centre in New Delhi, India. Appropriate statistical tests were used to compare clinicolaboratory characteristics, derive predictors of severe d ...[more]

PMID: 28491893

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Project description:ObjectiveThe paucity of specialised care in the peripheral areas of developing countries necessitates the referral of sick neonates to higher centres. Organised interhospital transport services provided by a skilled and well-equipped team can significantly improve the outcome. The present study evaluated the transport characteristics and predictors of mortality among neonates referred to a tertiary care centre in North India.DesignProspective observational study.SettingsTertiary care teaching hospital in North India.Patients1013 neonates referred from peripheral health units.Main outcome measuresMortality among referred neonates on admission to our centre.ResultsOf the 1013 enrolled neonates, 83% were transferred through national ambulance services, 13.7% through private hospital ambulances and 3.3% through personal vehicles. Major transfer indications were prematurity (35%), requirement for ventilation (32%), birth asphyxia (28%) and hyperbilirubinaemia (19%). Hypothermia (32.5%, 330 of 1013), shock (19%, 192 of 1013) and requirement for immediate cardiorespiratory support (ICRS) (10.4%, 106 of 1013) on arrival were the major complications observed during transfer. A total of 305 (30.1%, N=1013) deaths occurred. Of these, 52% (n=160) died within 24 hours of arrival. On multivariate logistic analysis, unsupervised pregnancy (<4 antenatal visits; p=0.037), antenatal complications (p<0.001), prematurity ≤30 weeks (p=0.005), shock (p=0.001), hypothermia (p<0.001), requirement for ICRS on arrival (p<0.001), birth asphyxia (p=0.004), travel time >2 hours (p=0.005) and absence of trained staff during transfer (p<0.001) were found to be significant predictors of mortality.ConclusionThe present study depicts high mortality among infants referred to our centre. Adequate training of peripheral health personnel and availability of pre-referral stabilisation and dedicated interhospital transport teams for sick neonate transfers may prove valuable interventions for improved outcomes.

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Predictors of Dengue-Related Mortality and Disease Severity in a Tertiary Care Center in North India.

Publications

Predictors of Dengue-Related Mortality and Disease Severity in a Tertiary Care Center in North India.

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