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Comparing multi-criteria decision analysis and integrated assessment to support long-term water supply planning.

ABSTRACT: We compare the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)-or more precisely, models used in multi-attribute value theory (MAVT)-to integrated assessment (IA) models for supporting long-term water supply planning in a small town case study in Switzerland. They are used to evaluate thirteen system scale water supply alternatives in four future scenarios regarding forty-four objectives, covering technical, social, environmental, and economic aspects. The alternatives encompass both conventional and unconventional solutions and differ regarding technical, spatial and organizational characteristics. This paper focuses on the impact assessment and final evaluation step of the structured MCDA decision support process. We analyze the performance of the alternatives for ten stakeholders. We demonstrate the implications of model assumptions by comparing two IA and three MAVT evaluation model layouts of different complexity. For this comparison, we focus on the validity (ranking stability), desirability (value), and distinguishability (value range) of the alternatives given the five model layouts. These layouts exclude or include stakeholder preferences and uncertainties. Even though all five led us to identify the same best alternatives, they did not produce identical rankings. We found that the MAVT-type models provide higher distinguishability and a more robust basis for discussion than the IA-type models. The needed complexity of the model, however, should be determined based on the intended use of the model within the decision support process. The best-performing alternatives had consistently strong performance for all stakeholders and future scenarios, whereas the current water supply system was outperformed in all evaluation layouts. The best-performing alternatives comprise proactive pipe rehabilitation, adapted firefighting provisions, and decentralized water storage and/or treatment. We present recommendations for possible ways of improving water supply planning in the case study and beyond.

SUBMITTER: Scholten L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5421771 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparing multi-criteria decision analysis and integrated assessment to support long-term water supply planning.

Scholten Lisa L Maurer Max M Lienert Judit J

PloS one 20170508 5

We compare the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)-or more precisely, models used in multi-attribute value theory (MAVT)-to integrated assessment (IA) models for supporting long-term water supply planning in a small town case study in Switzerland. They are used to evaluate thirteen system scale water supply alternatives in four future scenarios regarding forty-four objectives, covering technical, social, environmental, and economic aspects. The alternatives encompass both conventional ...[more]

PMID: 28481881

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Project description:In densely populated areas, surface waters are affected by many sources of pollution. Besides classical pollutants like nutrients and organic matter that lead to eutrophication, micropollutants from various point- and non-point sources are getting more attention by water quality managers. For cost-effective management an integrated assessment is needed that takes into account all relevant pollutants and all sources of pollution within a catchment. Due to the difficulty of identifying and quantifying sources of pollution and the need for considering long-term changes in boundary conditions, typically substantial uncertainty exists about the consequences of potential management alternatives to improve surface water quality. We therefore need integrated assessment methods that are able to deal with multiple objectives and account for various sources of uncertainty. This paper aims to contribute to integrated, prospective water management by combining a) multi-criteria decision support methods to structure the decision process and quantify preferences, b) integrated water quality modelling to predict consequences of management alternatives accounting for uncertainty, and c) scenario planning to consider uncertainty from potential future climate and socio-economic developments, to evaluate the future cost-effectiveness of water quality management alternatives at the catchment scale. It aims to demonstrate the usefulness of multi-attribute value functions for water quality assessment to i) propagate uncertainties throughout the entire assessment procedure, ii) facilitate the aggregation of multiple objectives while avoiding discretization errors when using categories for sub-objectives, iii) transparently communicate the results. We show how to use such multi-attribute value functions for model-based decision support in water quality management. We showcase the procedure for the Mönchaltorfer Aa catchment on the Swiss Plateau. We evaluate ten different water quality management alternatives, including current practice, that tackle macro- and micropollutants from a wide spectrum of agricultural and urban sources. We evaluate costs and water quality effects of the alternatives under four different socio-economic scenarios for the horizon 2050 under present and future climate projections and visualize their uncertainty. While the performance of alternatives is catchment specific, the methods can be transferred to other places and other management situations. Results confirm the need for cross-sectoral coordination of different management actions and interdisciplinary collaboration to support the development of prospective strategies to improve water quality.

Project description:Soil erosion risk assessment is an essential foundation for the planning and implementation of soil and water conservation projects. The commonality among existing studies is that they considered different indicators (e.g., rainfall and slope) in order to determine the soil erosion risk; however, the majority of studies in China neglect one important indicator, namely the slope aspect. It is widely accepted that the vegetation and distribution of rainfall differs according to the different slope aspects (such as sunny slope and shady slope) and these attributes will accordingly influence the soil erosion. Thus, existing studies neglecting this indicator cannot reflect the soil erosion well. To address this problem, a flexible soil erosion risk assessment method that supports decision makers in identifying priority areas in soil and water conservation planning was developed in the present study. Firstly, in order to verify the impact of the slope aspect on soil erosion, field investigations were conducted, and its impact on the characteristics of the community in the study area was analyzed. Secondly, six assessment indicators were selected, including slope gradient, precipitation, NDVI, land use, soil texture and slope aspect. Next, a developed multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method based on the Choquet integral was adopted to assess the soil erosion risk. The MCDA method, combining objective data with subjective assessment based on Choquet integral, could solve the weight problem encountered when using the quantitative method. The parameters required can be modified according to the soil erosion types, assessment scales, and data availability. The synergistic and inhibitory effects among the soil erosion parameters were also considered in the assessment. Finally, the soil erosion risk results in the Xinshui River watershed revealed that more attention should be paid to the slope of farmland and grassland during the planning and management of soil and water conservation projects. The methodology used in the current study can support decision makers in planning and implementing soil and water conservation measures in regions with different erosion types.

Project description:BackgroundThere is an increased interest in the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to support regulatory and reimbursement decision making. The EVIDEM framework was developed to provide pragmatic multi-criteria decision support in health care, to estimate the value of healthcare interventions, and to aid in priority-setting. The objectives of this study were to test 1) the influence of different weighting techniques on the overall outcome of an MCDA exercise, 2) the discriminative power in weighting different criteria of such techniques, and 3) whether different techniques result in similar weights in weighting the criteria set proposed by the EVIDEM framework.MethodsA sample of 60 Dutch and Canadian students participated in the study. Each student used an online survey to provide weights for 14 criteria with two different techniques: a five-point rating scale and one of the following techniques selected randomly: ranking, point allocation, pairwise comparison and best worst scaling.ResultsThe results of this study indicate that there is no effect of differences in weights on value estimates at the group level. On an individual level, considerable differences in criteria weights and rank order occur as a result of the weight elicitation method used, and the ability of different techniques to discriminate in criteria importance. Of the five techniques tested, the pair-wise comparison of criteria has the highest ability to discriminate in weights when fourteen criteria are compared.ConclusionsWhen weights are intended to support group decisions, the choice of elicitation technique has negligible impact on criteria weights and the overall value of an innovation. However, when weights are used to support individual decisions, the choice of elicitation technique influences outcome and studies that use dissimilar techniques cannot be easily compared. Weight elicitation through pairwise comparison of criteria is preferred when taking into account its superior ability to discriminate between criteria and respondents' preferences.

Project description:BackgroundTo provide value-based care for patients with multi-morbidity, innovative integrated care programmes and comprehensive evaluations of such programmes are required. In Norway, a new programme called "Holistic Continuity of Patient Care" (HCPC) addresses the issue of multi-morbidity by providing integrated care within learning networks for frail elderly patients who receive municipal home care services or a short-term stay in a nursing home. This study conducts a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to evaluate whether the HCPC programme performs better on a large set of outcomes corresponding to the 'triple aim' compared to usual care.MethodsProspective longitudinal survey data were collected at baseline and follow-up after 6-months. The assessment of HCPC was implemented by a novel MCDA framework. The relative weights of importance of the outcomes used in the MCDA were obtained from a discrete choice experiment among five different groups of stakeholders. The performance score was estimated using a quasi-experimental design and linear mixed methods. Performance scores were standardized and multiplied by their weights of importance to obtain the overall MCDA value by stakeholder group.ResultsAt baseline in the HCPC and usual care groups, respectively, 120 and 89 patients responded, of whom 87 and 41 responded at follow-up. The average age at baseline was 80.0 years for HCPC and 83.6 for usual care. Matching reduced the standardized differences between the groups for patient background characteristics and outcome variables. The MCDA results indicated that HCPC was preferred to usual care irrespective of stakeholders. The better performance of HCPC was mostly driven by improvements in enjoyment of life, psychological well-being, and social relationships and participation. Results were consistent with sensitivity analyses using Monte Carlo simulation.ConclusionFrail elderly with multi-morbidity represent complex health problems at large costs for society in terms of health- and social care. This study is a novel contribution to assessing and understanding HCPC programme performance respecting the multi-dimensionality of desired outcomes. Integrated care programmes like HCPC may improve well-being of patients, be cost-saving, and contribute to the pursuit of evidence based gradual reforms in the care of frail elderly.

Project description:BackgroundEvaluation of integrated care programmes for individuals with multi-morbidity requires a broader evaluation framework and a broader definition of added value than is common in cost-utility analysis. This is possible through the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA).Methods and resultsThis paper presents the seven steps of an MCDA to evaluate 17 different integrated care programmes for individuals with multi-morbidity in 8 European countries participating in the 4-year, EU-funded SELFIE project. In step one, qualitative research was undertaken to better understand the decision-context of these programmes. The programmes faced decisions related to their sustainability in terms of reimbursement, continuation, extension, and/or wider implementation. In step two, a uniform set of decision criteria was defined in terms of outcomes measured across the 17 programmes: physical functioning, psychological well-being, social relationships and participation, enjoyment of life, resilience, person-centeredness, continuity of care, and total health and social care costs. These were supplemented by programme-type specific outcomes. Step three presents the quasi-experimental studies designed to measure the performance of the programmes on the decision criteria. Step four gives details of the methods (Discrete Choice Experiment, Swing Weighting) to determine the relative importance of the decision criteria among five stakeholder groups per country. An example in step five illustrates the value-based method of MCDA by which the performance of the programmes on each decision criterion is combined with the weight of the respective criterion to derive an overall value score. Step six describes how we deal with uncertainty and introduces the Conditional Multi-Attribute Acceptability Curve. Step seven addresses the interpretation of results in stakeholder workshops.DiscussionBy discussing our solutions to the challenges involved in creating a uniform MCDA approach for the evaluation of different programmes, this paper provides guidance to future evaluations and stimulates debate on how to evaluate integrated care for multi-morbidity.

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Comparing multi-criteria decision analysis and integrated assessment to support long-term water supply planning.

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Comparing multi-criteria decision analysis and integrated assessment to support long-term water supply planning.

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