Dataset Information

Using electronic health records and Internet search information for accurate influenza forecasting.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Accurate influenza activity forecasting helps public health officials prepare and allocate resources for unusual influenza activity. Traditional flu surveillance systems, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) influenza-like illnesses reports, lag behind real-time by one to 2 weeks, whereas information contained in cloud-based electronic health records (EHR) and in Internet users' search activity is typically available in near real-time. We present a method that combines the information from these two data sources with historical flu activity to produce national flu forecasts for the United States up to 4 weeks ahead of the publication of CDC's flu reports.

Methods

We extend a method originally designed to track flu using Google searches, named ARGO, to combine information from EHR and Internet searches with historical flu activities. Our regularized multivariate regression model dynamically selects the most appropriate variables for flu prediction every week. The model is assessed for the flu seasons within the time period 2013-2016 using multiple metrics including root mean squared error (RMSE).

Results

Our method reduces the RMSE of the publicly available alternative (Healthmap flutrends) method by 33, 20, 17 and 21%, for the four time horizons: real-time, one, two, and 3 weeks ahead, respectively. Such accuracy improvements are statistically significant at the 5% level. Our real-time estimates correctly identified the peak timing and magnitude of the studied flu seasons.

Conclusions

Our method significantly reduces the prediction error when compared to historical publicly available Internet-based prediction systems, demonstrating that: (1) the method to combine data sources is as important as data quality; (2) effectively extracting information from a cloud-based EHR and Internet search activity leads to accurate forecast of flu.

SUBMITTER: Yang S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5423019 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Using electronic health records and Internet search information for accurate influenza forecasting.

Yang Shihao S Santillana Mauricio M Brownstein John S JS Gray Josh J Richardson Stewart S Kou S C SC

BMC infectious diseases 20170508 1

<h4>Background</h4>Accurate influenza activity forecasting helps public health officials prepare and allocate resources for unusual influenza activity. Traditional flu surveillance systems, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) influenza-like illnesses reports, lag behind real-time by one to 2 weeks, whereas information contained in cloud-based electronic health records (EHR) and in Internet users' search activity is typically available in near real-time. We present a me ...[more]

PMID: 28482810

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundInfluenza outbreaks pose major challenges to public health around the world, leading to thousands of deaths a year in the United States alone. Accurate systems that track influenza activity at the city level are necessary to provide actionable information that can be used for clinical, hospital, and community outbreak preparation.ObjectiveAlthough Internet-based real-time data sources such as Google searches and tweets have been successfully used to produce influenza activity estimates ahead of traditional health care-based systems at national and state levels, influenza tracking and forecasting at finer spatial resolutions, such as the city level, remain an open question. Our study aimed to present a precise, near real-time methodology capable of producing influenza estimates ahead of those collected and published by the Boston Public Health Commission (BPHC) for the Boston metropolitan area. This approach has great potential to be extended to other cities with access to similar data sources.MethodsWe first tested the ability of Google searches, Twitter posts, electronic health records, and a crowd-sourced influenza reporting system to detect influenza activity in the Boston metropolis separately. We then adapted a multivariate dynamic regression method named ARGO (autoregression with general online information), designed for tracking influenza at the national level, and showed that it effectively uses the above data sources to monitor and forecast influenza at the city level 1 week ahead of the current date. Finally, we presented an ensemble-based approach capable of combining information from models based on multiple data sources to more robustly nowcast as well as forecast influenza activity in the Boston metropolitan area. The performances of our models were evaluated in an out-of-sample fashion over 4 influenza seasons within 2012-2016, as well as a holdout validation period from 2016 to 2017.ResultsOur ensemble-based methods incorporating information from diverse models based on multiple data sources, including ARGO, produced the most robust and accurate results. The observed Pearson correlations between our out-of-sample flu activity estimates and those historically reported by the BPHC were 0.98 in nowcasting influenza and 0.94 in forecasting influenza 1 week ahead of the current date.ConclusionsWe show that information from Internet-based data sources, when combined using an informed, robust methodology, can be effectively used as early indicators of influenza activity at fine geographic resolutions.

Project description:BackgroundAs the availability of interoperable electronic health records (iEHRs) or health information exchanges (HIEs) continues to increase, there is greater need and opportunity to assess the current evidence base on what works and what does not regarding the adoption, use, and impact of iEHRs.ObjectiveThe purpose of this project is to assess the international evidence base on the adoption, use, and impact of iEHRs.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review, searching multiple databases-MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL)-with supplemental searches conducted in Google Scholar and grey literature sources (ie, Google, Grey Literature Report, and OpenGrey). All searches were conducted in January and February 2017. Articles were eligible for inclusion if they were published in English, were published from 2006 to 2017, and were either an original research study or a literature review. In order to be included, articles needed to focus on iEHRs and HIEs across multiple health care settings, as well as on the impact and effectiveness of iEHR adoption and use.ResultsWe included 130 articles in the synthesis (113 primary studies, 86.9%; 17 reviews, 13.1%), with the majority focused on the United States (88/130, 67.7%). The primary studies focused on a wide range of health care settings; the three most prevalent settings studied included acute care (59/113, 52.2%), primary care (44/113, 38.9%), and emergency departments (34/113, 30.1%). We identified 29 distinct measurement items in the 113 primary studies that were linked to 522 specific measurement outcomes. Productivity and quality were the two evaluation dimensions that received the most attention, accounting for 14 of 29 (48%) measurement items and 306 of 522 (58.6%) measurement outcomes identified. Overall, the majority of the 522 measurement outcomes were positive (298/522, 57.1%). We also identified 17 reviews on iEHR use and impact, 6 (35%) that focused on barriers and facilitators to adoption and implementation and 11 (65%) that focused on benefits and impacts, with the more recent reviews finding little generalizable evidence of benefit and impact.ConclusionsThis review captures the status of an evolving and active field focused on the use and impact of iEHRs. While the overall findings suggest many positive impacts, the quality of the primary studies were not evaluated systematically. When broken down by specific measurement item, the results directed attention both to measurement outcomes that were consistently positive and others that were mostly negative or equivocal.

Dataset Information

Using electronic health records and Internet search information for accurate influenza forecasting.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Using electronic health records and Internet search information for accurate influenza forecasting.

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