Dataset Information

Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models.

ABSTRACT: Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18-34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26-29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.

SUBMITTER: Mordecai EA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5423694 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models.

Mordecai Erin A EA Cohen Jeremy M JM Evans Michelle V MV Gudapati Prithvi P Johnson Leah R LR Lippi Catherine A CA Miazgowicz Kerri K Murdock Courtney C CC Rohr Jason R JR Ryan Sadie J SJ Savage Van V Shocket Marta S MS Stewart Ibarra Anna A Thomas Matthew B MB Weikel Daniel P DP

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20170427 4

Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show ...[more]

PMID: 28448507

Similar Datasets

Project description:Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (re)emerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24-25°C) at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25-35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation). Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting for seasonal variation in temperature, the model provides a baseline for mechanistically understanding environmental suitability for virus transmission by Aedes aegypti. Overlaying the impact of human activities and socioeconomic factors onto this mechanistic temperature-dependent framework is critical for understanding likelihood and magnitude of outbreaks.

Project description:Background & objectivesThere are reports about the susceptibility of Aedes mosquitoes to ZIKV from various countries, however, no such information is available from Indian sub-continent, although, high level of group cross-reactivity of ZIKV with other flaviviruses has been reported. During outbreak situations, many cases of Dengue (DEN) and Chikungunya (CHIK) are reported. In such scenario, vector mosquitoes are likely to get co-infection/secondary-infection with one or other virus. The present study was carried out to determine the susceptibility of Indian strain of Aedes aegypti to Zika virus (ZIKV) strain (MR-766) and the effect of co-infection/super-infection with either dengue virus (serotype-2) (DENV) or chikungunya virus (CHIKV) on ZIKV replication.MethodsAe. aegypti mosquitoes used in this study were reared for many generations since 1980 at laboratory colony maintained at the ICMR-National Institute of Virology, Pune, India. Transmissibility of ZIKV from infected mosquitoes to suckling mice was also studied. Mosquitoes were experimentally infected with ZIKV and super-infected with either DENV or CHIKV via membrane-feeding route and incubated for 14 days at 28±2°C and humidity of 85±5 per cent. Replication of these viruses in mosquitoes was confirmed using real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and immunofluorescence assay. Twenty infected mosquitoes were allowed to feed upon four suckling CD1 mice for about 30 min. Transmission of the ZIKV by infected mosquitoes to suckling mice was confirmed by the appearance of clinical signs and the presence of viral RNA in different organs.ResultsConcomitant infection of mosquitoes with all the three viruses showed simultaneous propagation of all three viruses, confirmed by real time RT-PCR and IFA. Infection of mosquitoes with CHIKV followed by ZIKV showed positivity in individual head squashes (7%) for both viruses using IFA; only 8.3 per cent showed dual positivity with primary infection of ZIKV followed by DENV; 8.3 per cent dual infection positivity was observed when infected with DENV followed by ZIKV; 5 per cent showed dual infection was observed when infected with ZIKV followed by CHIKV. Ae. aegypti was found to be susceptible to ZIKV strain as ZIKV could be detected from the second post-infection day (PID) in infected mosquitoes. Transmission of ZIKV to mice by the bite of infected Ae. aegypti establishes this species as a potential vector.Interpretation & conclusionsFrom super-infection experiments, it was concluded that ZIKV might have a relative advantage in replication dynamics over DENV. Vertical transmission was not observed for ZIKV in experimentally infected mosquitoes (n=920 larvae). Further studies are required to understand the possibility of silently circulating ZIKV in India, which remain non-detected because of lack of surveillance.

Project description:Zika, dengue, and chikungunya are three mosquito-borne viruses having overlapping transmission vectors. They cause diseases having similar symptoms in human patients, but requiring different immediate management steps. Therefore, rapid (< one hour) discrimination of these three viruses in patient samples and trapped mosquitoes is needed. The need for speed precludes any assay that requires complex up-front sample preparation, such as extraction of nucleic acids from the sample. Also precluded in robust point-of-sampling assays is downstream release of the amplicon mixture, as this risks contamination of future samples that will give false positives.Procedures are reported that directly test urine and plasma (for patient diagnostics) or crushed mosquito carcasses (for environmental surveillance). Carcasses are captured on paper samples carrying quaternary ammonium groups (Q-paper), which may be directly introduced into the assay. To avoid the time and instrumentation requirements of PCR, the procedure uses loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP). Downstream detection is done in sealed tubes, with dTTP-dUTP mixtures in the LAMP with a thermolabile uracil DNA glycosylase (UDG); this offers a second mechanism to prevent forward contamination. Reverse transcription LAMP (RT-LAMP) reagents are distributed dry without requiring a continuous chain of refrigeration.The tests detect viral RNA in unprocessed urine and other biological samples, distinguishing Zika, chikungunya, and dengue in urine and in mosquitoes infected with live Zika and chikungunya viruses. The limits of detection (LODs) are ~0.71 pfu equivalent viral RNAs for Zika, ~1.22 pfu equivalent viral RNAs for dengue, and ~38 copies of chikungunya viral RNA. A handheld, battery-powered device with an orange filter was constructed to visualize the output. Preliminary data showed that this architecture, working with pre-prepared tubes holding lyophilized reagent/enzyme mixtures and shipped without a chain of refrigeration, also worked with human plasma samples to detect chikungunya and dengue in Pune, India.A kit, complete with a visualization device, is now available for point-of-sampling detection of Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. The assay output is read in ca. 30 min by visualizing (human eye) three-color coded fluorescence signals. Assay in dried format allows it to be run in low-resource environments.

Project description:BackgroundZika, dengue, and chikungunya are three mosquito-borne viruses having overlapping transmission vectors. They cause diseases having similar symptoms in human patients, but requiring different immediate management steps. Therefore, rapid (< one hour) discrimination of these three viruses in patient samples and trapped mosquitoes is needed. The need for speed precludes any assay that requires complex up-front sample preparation, such as extraction of nucleic acids from the sample. Also precluded in robust point-of-sampling assays is downstream release of the amplicon mixture, as this risks contamination of future samples that will give false positives.MethodsProcedures are reported that directly test urine and plasma (for patient diagnostics) or crushed mosquito carcasses (for environmental surveillance). Carcasses are captured on paper samples carrying quaternary ammonium groups (Q-paper), which may be directly introduced into the assay. To avoid the time and instrumentation requirements of PCR, the procedure uses loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP). Downstream detection is done in sealed tubes, with dTTP-dUTP mixtures in the LAMP with a thermolabile uracil DNA glycosylase (UDG); this offers a second mechanism to prevent forward contamination. Reverse transcription LAMP (RT-LAMP) reagents are distributed dry without requiring a continuous chain of refrigeration.ResultsThe tests detect viral RNA in unprocessed urine and other biological samples, distinguishing Zika, chikungunya, and dengue in urine and in mosquitoes infected with live Zika and chikungunya viruses. The limits of detection (LODs) are ~0.71 pfu equivalent viral RNAs for Zika, ~1.22 pfu equivalent viral RNAs for dengue, and ~38 copies of chikungunya viral RNA. A handheld, battery-powered device with an orange filter was constructed to visualize the output. Preliminary data showed that this architecture, working with pre-prepared tubes holding lyophilized reagent/enzyme mixtures and shipped without a chain of refrigeration, also worked with human plasma samples to detect chikungunya and dengue in Pune, India.ConclusionsA kit, complete with a visualization device, is now available for point-of-sampling detection of Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. The assay output is read in ca. 30 min by visualizing (human eye) three-color coded fluorescence signals. Assay in dried format allows it to be run in low-resource environments.

Project description:BackgroundEffective Aedes aegypti control is limited, in part, by the difficulty in achieving sufficient intervention coverage. To maximise the effect of vector control, areas with persistently high numbers of Aedes-borne disease cases could be identified and prioritised for preventive interventions. We aimed to identify persistent Aedes-borne disease hotspots in cities across southern Mexico.MethodsIn this spatial analysis, geocoded cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika from nine endemic Mexican cities were aggregated at the census-tract level. We included cities that were located in southern Mexico (the arbovirus endemic region of Mexico), with a high burden of dengue cases (ie, more than 5000 cases reported during a 10-year period), and listed as high priority for the Mexican dengue control and prevention programme. The Getis-Ord Gi*(d) statistic was applied to yearly slices of the dataset to identify spatial hotspots of each disease in each city. We used Kendall's W coefficient to quantify the agreement in the distribution of each virus.Findings128 507 dengue, 4752 chikungunya and 25 755 Zika clinical cases were reported between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2016. All cities showed evidence of transmission heterogeneity, with a mean of 17·6% (SD 4·7) of their total area identified as persistent disease hotspots. Hotspots accounted for 25·6% (SD 9·7; range 12·8-43·0) of the population and 32·1% (10·5; 19·6-50·5) of all Aedes-borne disease cases reported. We found an overlap between hotspots of 61·7% for dengue and Zika and 53·3% for dengue and chikungunya. Dengue hotspots in 2008-16 were significantly associated with dengue hotspots detected during 2017-20 in five of the nine cities. Heads of vector control confirmed hotspot areas as problem zones for arbovirus transmission.InterpretationThis study provides evidence of the overlap of Aedes-borne diseases within geographical hotspots and a methodological framework for the stratification of arbovirus transmission risk within urban areas, which can guide the implementation of surveillance and vector control.FundingUSAID, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, International Development Research Centre, Fondo Mixto CONACyT (Mexico)-Gobierno del Estado de Yucatan, and the US National Institutes of Health.TranslationFor the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Dataset Information

Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models.

Publications

Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets