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Discriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2012 seismic sequence.

ABSTRACT: The potential for oilfield activities to trigger earthquakes in seismogenic areas has been hotly debated. Our model compares the stress changes from remote water injection and a natural earthquake, both of which occurred in northern Italy in recent years, and their potential effects on a nearby Mw 5.9 earthquake that occurred in 2012. First, we calculate the Coulomb stress from 20 years of fluid injection in a nearby oilfield by using a poroelastic model. Then, we compute the stress changes for a 2011 Mw 4.5 earthquake that occurred close to the area of the 2012 mainshock. We found that anthropogenic activities produced an effect that was less than 10% of that generated by the Mw 4.5 earthquake. Therefore, the 2012 earthquake was likely associated with a natural stress increase. The probability of triggering depends on the magnitude of recent earthquakes, the amount of injected water, the distance from an event, and the proximity to the failure of the activated fault. Determining changes that are associated with seismic hazards requires poroelastic area-specific models that include both tectonic and anthropogenic activities. This comprehensive approach is particularly important when assessing the risk of triggered seismicity near densely populated areas.

SUBMITTER: Albano M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5428219 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Discriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2012 seismic sequence.

Albano Matteo M Barba Salvatore S Tarabusi Gabriele G Saroli Michele M Stramondo Salvatore S

Scientific reports 20170321 1

The potential for oilfield activities to trigger earthquakes in seismogenic areas has been hotly debated. Our model compares the stress changes from remote water injection and a natural earthquake, both of which occurred in northern Italy in recent years, and their potential effects on a nearby Mw 5.9 earthquake that occurred in 2012. First, we calculate the Coulomb stress from 20 years of fluid injection in a nearby oilfield by using a poroelastic model. Then, we compute the stress changes for ...[more]

PMID: 28325937

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Project description:BackgroundThis research was performed in an area belonging to the province of the city of Bologna (Emilia-Romagna region, Northern Italy). The purpose of the present survey was to record the local knowledge concerning traditional uses of wild food plants and related practices, such as gathering, processing, cooking, therapeutic uses, with the aim of preserving an important part of the local cultural heritage.MethodsThirty-nine people still retaining Traditional Local Knowledge (TLK) were interviewed between March-April 2012 and September-October 2013 by means of open and semi-structured ethnobotanical interviews. For each plant species mentioned, we recorded the botanical family, the English common name, the Italian common and/or folk names, the parts of the plant used, the culinary preparation, and the medicinal usage. The relative frequency of citation index (RFC), a tool that measures the local cultural importance of a plant species, was also included.ResultsThe folk plants mentioned by the respondents belonged to 33 botanical families, of which the Rosaceae (14 plants) and the Asteraceae (9 plants) were the most representative. The species with the highest RFC index (0.77) were Crepis vesicaria subsp. taraxacifolia (Thuill) Thell and Taraxacum officinale Weber. Eleven folk plants were indicated as having therapeutic effects. T. officinale Weber, C. vesicaria subsp. taraxacifolia (Thuill) Thell and Sonchus spp., which are used as food, were reported to be depurative, blood cleaning, refreshing, diuretic and laxative. The most commonly used species was Urtica spp, which was also the most frequently cited for medicinal uses.ConclusionsThe present survey documented the wild food plant traditional knowledge of an area belonging to the province of the city of Bologna (Emilia-Romagna region, Northern Italy). The general perception obtained is that on one side the TLK related to wild food plants has strongly been eroded, mainly due to immigration and urbanization phenomena, whereas on the other side these plants are revaluated today because they are perceived as healthy and also because they represent the preservation of biodiversity and a way of getting back to nature.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:Develop predictive models for a paediatric population that provide information for paediatricians and health authorities to identify children at risk of hospitalisation for conditions that may be impacted through improved patient care. DESIGN:Retrospective healthcare utilisation analysis with multivariable logistic regression models. DATA:Demographic information linked with utilisation of health services in the years 2006-2014 was used to predict risk of hospitalisation or death in 2015 using a longitudinal administrative database of 527?458 children aged 1-13 years residing in the Regione Emilia-Romagna (RER), Italy, in 2014. OUTCOME MEASURES:Models designed to predict risk of hospitalisation or death in 2015 for problems that are potentially avoidable were developed and evaluated using the C-statistic, for calibration to assess performance across levels of predicted risk, and in terms of their sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value. RESULTS:Of the 527?458 children residing in RER in 2014, 6391 children (1.21%) were hospitalised for selected conditions or died in 2015. 49?486 children (9.4%) of the population were classified in the 'At Higher Risk' group using a threshold of predicted risk >2.5%. The observed risk of hospitalisation (5%) for the 'At Higher Risk' group was more than four times higher than the overall population. We observed a C-statistic of 0.78 indicating good model performance. The model was well calibrated across categories of predicted risk. CONCLUSIONS:It is feasible to develop a population-based model using a longitudinal administrative database that identifies the risk of hospitalisation for a paediatric population. The results of this model, along with profiles of children identified as high risk, are being provided to the paediatricians and other healthcare professionals providing care to this population to aid in planning for care management and interventions that may reduce their patients' likelihood of a preventable, high-cost hospitalisation.

Dataset Information

Discriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2012 seismic sequence.

Publications

Discriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2012 seismic sequence.

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