Dataset Information

Big-data-driven modeling unveils country-wide drivers of endemic schistosomiasis.

ABSTRACT: Schistosomiasis is a parasitic infection that is widespread in sub-Saharan Africa, where it represents a major health problem. We study the drivers of its geographical distribution in Senegal via a spatially explicit network model accounting for epidemiological dynamics driven by local socioeconomic and environmental conditions, and human mobility. The model is parameterized by tapping several available geodatabases and a large dataset of mobile phone traces. It reliably reproduces the observed spatial patterns of regional schistosomiasis prevalence throughout the country, provided that spatial heterogeneity and human mobility are suitably accounted for. Specifically, a fine-grained description of the socioeconomic and environmental heterogeneities involved in local disease transmission is crucial to capturing the spatial variability of disease prevalence, while the inclusion of human mobility significantly improves the explanatory power of the model. Concerning human movement, we find that moderate mobility may reduce disease prevalence, whereas either high or low mobility may result in increased prevalence of infection. The effects of control strategies based on exposure and contamination reduction via improved access to safe water or educational campaigns are also analyzed. To our knowledge, this represents the first application of an integrative schistosomiasis transmission model at a whole-country scale.

SUBMITTER: Mari L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5428445 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Big-data-driven modeling unveils country-wide drivers of endemic schistosomiasis.

Mari Lorenzo L Gatto Marino M Ciddio Manuela M Dia Elhadji D ED Sokolow Susanne H SH De Leo Giulio A GA Casagrandi Renato R

Scientific reports 20170328 1

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic infection that is widespread in sub-Saharan Africa, where it represents a major health problem. We study the drivers of its geographical distribution in Senegal via a spatially explicit network model accounting for epidemiological dynamics driven by local socioeconomic and environmental conditions, and human mobility. The model is parameterized by tapping several available geodatabases and a large dataset of mobile phone traces. It reliably reproduces the observed ...[more]

PMID: 28352101

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Project description:BackgroundPigs were domesticated independently in Eastern and Western Eurasia early during the agricultural revolution, and have since been transported and traded across the globe. Here, we present a worldwide survey on 60K genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data for 2093 pigs, including 1839 domestic pigs representing 122 local and commercial breeds, 215 wild boars, and 39 out-group suids, from Asia, Europe, America, Oceania and Africa. The aim of this study was to infer global patterns in pig domestication and diversity related to demography, migration, and selection.ResultsA deep phylogeographic division reflects the dichotomy between early domestication centers. In the core Eastern and Western domestication regions, Chinese pigs show differentiation between breeds due to geographic isolation, whereas this is less pronounced in European pigs. The inferred European origin of pigs in the Americas, Africa, and Australia reflects European expansion during the sixteenth to nineteenth centuries. Human-mediated introgression, which is due, in particular, to importing Chinese pigs into the UK during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, played an important role in the formation of modern pig breeds. Inbreeding levels vary markedly between populations, from almost no runs of homozygosity (ROH) in a number of Asian wild boar populations, to up to 20% of the genome covered by ROH in a number of Southern European breeds. Commercial populations show moderate ROH statistics. For domesticated pigs and wild boars in Asia and Europe, we identified highly differentiated loci that include candidate genes related to muscle and body development, central nervous system, reproduction, and energy balance, which are putatively under artificial selection.ConclusionsKey events related to domestication, dispersal, and mixing of pigs from different regions are reflected in the 60K SNP data, including the globalization that has recently become full circle since Chinese pig breeders in the past decades started selecting Western breeds to improve local Chinese pigs. Furthermore, signatures of ongoing and past selection, acting at different times and on different genetic backgrounds, enhance our insight in the mechanism of domestication and selection. The global diversity statistics presented here highlight concerns for maintaining agrodiversity, but also provide a necessary framework for directing genetic conservation.

Project description:BackgroundSchistosomiasis control is striving forward to transmission interruption and even elimination, evidence-lead control is of vital importance to eliminate the hidden dangers of schistosomiasis. This study attempts to identify high risk areas of schistosomiasis in China by using information value and machine learning.MethodsThe local case distribution from schistosomiasis surveillance data in China between 2005 and 2019 was assessed based on 19 variables including climate, geography, and social economy. Seven models were built in three categories including information value (IV), three machine learning models [logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), generalized boosted model (GBM)], and three coupled models (IV + LR, IV + RF, IV + GBM). Accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), and F1-score were used to evaluate the prediction performance of the models. The optimal model was selected to predict the risk distribution for schistosomiasis.ResultsThere is a more prone to schistosomiasis epidemic provided that paddy fields, grasslands, less than 2.5 km from the waterway, annual average temperature of 11.5-19.0 °C, annual average rainfall of 1000-1550 mm. IV + GBM had the highest prediction effect (accuracy = 0.878, AUC = 0.902, F1 = 0.920) compared with the other six models. The results of IV + GBM showed that the risk areas are mainly distributed in the coastal regions of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Poyang Lake region, and the Dongting Lake region. High-risk areas are primarily distributed in eastern Changde, western Yueyang, northeastern Yiyang, middle Changsha of Hunan province; southern Jiujiang, northern Nanchang, northeastern Shangrao, eastern Yichun in Jiangxi province; southern Jingzhou, southern Xiantao, middle Wuhan in Hubei province; southern Anqing, northwestern Guichi, eastern Wuhu in Anhui province; middle Meishan, northern Leshan, and the middle of Liangshan in Sichuan province.ConclusionsThe risk of schistosomiasis transmission in China still exists, with high-risk areas relatively concentrated in the coastal regions of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Coupled models of IV and machine learning provide for effective analysis and prediction, forming a scientific basis for evidence-lead surveillance and control.

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Big-data-driven modeling unveils country-wide drivers of endemic schistosomiasis.

Publications

Big-data-driven modeling unveils country-wide drivers of endemic schistosomiasis.

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