Dataset Information

External validation of SAPS 3 and MPM0-III scores in 48,816 patients from 72 Brazilian ICUs.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The performance of severity-of-illness scores varies in different scenarios and must be validated prior of being used in a specific settings and geographic regions. Moreover, models' calibration may deteriorate overtime and performance of such instruments should be reassessed regularly. Therefore, we aimed at to validate the SAPS 3 in a large contemporary cohort of patients admitted to Brazilian ICUs. In addition, we also compared the performance of the SAPS 3 with the MPM0-III. METHODS:This is a retrospective cohort study in which 48,816 (medical admissions = 67.9%) adult patients are admitted to 72 Brazilian ICUs during 2013. We evaluated models' discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). We applied the calibration belt to evaluate the agreement between observed and expected mortality rates (calibration). RESULTS:Mean SAPS 3 score was 44.3 ± 15.4 points. ICU and hospital mortality rates were 11.0 and 16.5%. We estimated predicted mortality using both standard (SE) and Central and South American (CSA) customized equations. Predicted mortality rates were 16.4 ± 19.3% (SAPS 3-SE), 21.7 ± 23.2% (SAPS 3-CSA) and 14.3 ± 14.0% (MPM0-III). Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) obtained for each model were: 1.00 (95% CI, 0.98-0.102) for the SAPS 3-SE, 0.75 (0.74-0.77) for the SAPS 3-CSA and 1.15 (1.13-1.18) for the MPM0-III. Discrimination was better for SAPS 3 models (AUROC = 0.85) than for MPM0-III (AUROC = 0.80) (p < 0.001). We applied the calibration belt to evaluate the agreement between observed and expected mortality rates (calibration): the SAPS 3-CSA overestimated mortality throughout all risk classes while the MPM0-III underestimated it uniformly. The SAPS 3-SE did not show relevant deviations from ideal calibration. CONCLUSIONS:In a large contemporary database, the SAPS 3-SE was accurate in predicting outcomes, supporting its use for performance evaluation and benchmarking in Brazilian ICUs.

SUBMITTER: Moralez GM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5436994 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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External validation of SAPS 3 and MPM<sub>0</sub>-III scores in 48,816 patients from 72 Brazilian ICUs.

Moralez Giulliana Martines GM Rabello Ligia Sarmet Cunha Farah LSCF Lisboa Thiago Costa TC Lima Mariza da Fonte Andrade MDFA Hatum Rodrigo Marques RM De Marco Fernando Vinicius Cesar FVC Alves Alessandra A Pinto Jorge Eduardo da Silva Soares JEDSS de Araújo Hélia Beatriz Nunes HBN Ramos Grazielle Viana GV Silva Aline Reis AR Fernandes Guilherme Côrtes GC Faria Guilherme Brenande Alves GBA Mendes Ciro Leite CL Ramos Filho Roberto Álvaro RÁ de Souza Valdênia Pereira VP do Brasil Pedro Emmanuel Alvarenga Americano PEAA Bozza Fernando Augusto FA Salluh Jorge Ibrain Figueira JIF Soares Marcio M

Annals of intensive care 20170518 1

<h4>Background</h4>The performance of severity-of-illness scores varies in different scenarios and must be validated prior of being used in a specific settings and geographic regions. Moreover, models' calibration may deteriorate overtime and performance of such instruments should be reassessed regularly. Therefore, we aimed at to validate the SAPS 3 in a large contemporary cohort of patients admitted to Brazilian ICUs. In addition, we also compared the performance of the SAPS 3 with the MPM<sub ...[more]

PMID: 28523584

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Project description:BackgroundEuroLung Risk scores were established to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing anatomic lung resections. We aimed to perform an external validation of the EuroLung scores, which were calculated from data of the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons database, in our video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery cohort.MethodsAll available EuroLung scores were calculated for 718 patients scheduled for anatomic video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery resections between 2009 and 2019. Morbidity and mortality according to the definitions of the EuroLung scores were analyzed in a prospectively maintained database.ResultsOverall observed complication rate was 10.45%. Scores showed weak individual correlation (η = 0.155-0.174). The EuroLung1 app score showed the biggest area under the receiver operative characteristic (ROC) curve with 0.660. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 s was associated with increased complications in both EuroLung1 and parsimonious EuroLung1 scores. Thirty-day mortality was 0.7% (predicted 1.10-1.40%) and was associated with predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 s for both EuroLung2 and parsimonious EuroLung2 scores. The EuroLung2 (2016) showed the biggest area under the ROC curve with 0.673. Only a very weak eta correlation between predicted and observed mortality was found for both aggregate EuroLung2, EuroLung2 (2016), EuroLung2 (2019), and parsimonious EuroLung2 (2016) (η = 0.025/0.015/0.011/0.009).ConclusionEuroLung scores help to estimate postoperative morbidity. However, even with the highest aggregate EuroLung scores possible only 50% suffer from postoperative morbidity. Although calibration of the scores was acceptable, discrimination between predicted and observed events was poor. Therefore, individual correlation between predicted and observed events is weak. Therefore, EuroLung scores may be best used to compare institutional quality of care to the European Society of Thoracic Surgeons database but should not be used to preclude patients from surgical treatment.

Project description:BackgroundEarly identification of bleeding at the scene of an injury is important for triage and timely treatment of injured patients and transport to an appropriate facility. The aim of the study is to compare the performance of different bleeding scores.MethodsWe examined data from the Swiss Trauma Registry for the years 2015-2019. The Swiss Trauma Registry includes patients with major trauma (injury severity score (ISS) ≥ 16 and/or abbreviated injury scale (AIS) head ≥ 3) admitted to any level-one trauma centre in Switzerland. We evaluated ABC, TASH and Shock index (SI) scores, used to predict massive transfusion (MT) and the BATT score and used to predict death from bleeding. We evaluated the scores when used prehospital and in-hospital in terms of discrimination (C-Statistic) and calibration (calibration slope). The outcomes were early death within 24 h and the receipt of massive transfusion (≥ 10 Red Blood cells (RBC) units in the first 24 h or ≥ 3 RBC units in the first hour).ResultsWe examined data from 13,222 major trauma patients. There were 1,533 (12%) deaths from any cause, 530 (4%) early deaths within 24 h, and 523 (4%) patients who received a MT (≥ 3 RBC within the first hour). In the prehospital setting, the BATT score had the highest discrimination for early death (C-statistic: 0.86, 95% CI 0.84-0.87) compared to the ABC score (0.63, 95% CI 0.60-0.65) and SI (0.53, 95% CI 0.50-0.56), P < 0.001. At hospital admission, the TASH score had the highest discrimination for MT (0.80, 95% CI 0.78-0.82). The positive likelihood ratio for early death were superior to 5 for BATT, ABC and TASH. The negative likelihood ratio for early death was below 0.1 only for the BATT score.ConclusionsThe BATT score accurately estimates the risk of early death with excellent performance, low undertriage, and can be used for prehospital treatment decision-making. Scores predicting MT presented a high undertriage rate. The outcome MT seems not appropriate to stratify the risk of life-threatening bleeding.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov, NCT04561050 . Registered 15 September 2020.

Dataset Information

External validation of SAPS 3 and MPM0-III scores in 48,816 patients from 72 Brazilian ICUs.

Publications

External validation of SAPS 3 and MPM<sub>0</sub>-III scores in 48,816 patients from 72 Brazilian ICUs.

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