Dataset Information

Ambiguity in the causes for decadal trends in atmospheric methane and hydroxyl.

ABSTRACT: Methane is the second strongest anthropogenic greenhouse gas and its atmospheric burden has more than doubled since 1850. Methane concentrations stabilized in the early 2000s and began increasing again in 2007. Neither the stabilization nor the recent growth are well understood, as evidenced by multiple competing hypotheses in recent literature. Here we use a multispecies two-box model inversion to jointly constrain 36 y of methane sources and sinks, using ground-based measurements of methane, methyl chloroform, and the C¹³/C¹² ratio in atmospheric methane (?¹³CH₄) from 1983 through 2015. We find that the problem, as currently formulated, is underdetermined and solutions obtained in previous work are strongly dependent on prior assumptions. Based on our analysis, the mathematically most likely explanation for the renewed growth in atmospheric methane, counterintuitively, involves a 25-Tg/y decrease in methane emissions from 2003 to 2016 that is offset by a 7% decrease in global mean hydroxyl (OH) concentrations, the primary sink for atmospheric methane, over the same period. However, we are still able to fit the observations if we assume that OH concentrations are time invariant (as much of the previous work has assumed) and we then find solutions that are largely consistent with other proposed hypotheses for the renewed growth of atmospheric methane since 2007. We conclude that the current surface observing system does not allow unambiguous attribution of the decadal trends in methane without robust constraints on OH variability, which currently rely purely on methyl chloroform data and its uncertain emissions estimates.

SUBMITTER: Turner AJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5448216 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Ambiguity in the causes for decadal trends in atmospheric methane and hydroxyl.

Turner Alexander J AJ Frankenberg Christian C Wennberg Paul O PO Jacob Daniel J DJ

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20170417 21

Methane is the second strongest anthropogenic greenhouse gas and its atmospheric burden has more than doubled since 1850. Methane concentrations stabilized in the early 2000s and began increasing again in 2007. Neither the stabilization nor the recent growth are well understood, as evidenced by multiple competing hypotheses in recent literature. Here we use a multispecies two-box model inversion to jointly constrain 36 y of methane sources and sinks, using ground-based measurements of methane, m ...[more]

PMID: 28416668

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Project description:Understanding the mechanism of hydrazine oxidation reaction by OH radical along with the rate constants of all possible pathways leads to explain the fate of hydrazine in the atmosphere. In this article, the comprehensive mechanisms and kinetics of the hydrazine plus hydroxyl radical reaction have been investigated theoretically at different temperatures and pressures. To achieve the main goals, a series of high levels of quantum chemical calculations have been widely implemented in reliable channels of the H-abstraction, SN2, and addition/elimination reactions. The energy profile of all pathways accompanied by the molecular properties of the involved stationary points has been characterized at the MP2, M06-2X, and CCSD(T)/CBS levels. To estimate accurate barrier energies of the H-abstraction channels, large numbers of the CCSD (T) calculations in conjunction with various augmented basis sets have been implemented. The direct dynamic calculations have been carried out using the validated M06-2X/maug-cc-pVTZ level, and also by the CCSD(T) (energies) + MP2 (partition functions) level. The pressure-dependent rate constants of the barrierless pathways have been investigated by the strong collision approach. Therefore, the main behaviors of the N2H4 + OH reaction have been explored according to the influences of temperature and pressure on the computed rate coefficients within the well-behaved theoretical frameworks of the TST, VTST, and RRKM theories. It has been found that the H-abstraction mechanism (to form N2H3) is dominant relative to the SN2 reaction and OH-addition to the N center of N2H4 moiety (to form H2NOH + NH2). The computed high pressure limit rate constant of the main reaction pathway, k(298.15) = 7.31 × 10-11 cm3 molecule-1 s-1, has an excellent agreement with the experimental value (k (298.15) = (6.50 ± 1.3) × 10-11 cm3 molecule-1 s-1) recommended by Vaghjiani. Also, the atmospheric lifetime of hydrazine degradation by OH radicals has been demonstrated to be 32.80 to 1161.11 h at the altitudes of 0-50 km. Finally, the disagreement in the calculated rate constants between the previous theoretical study and experimental results has been rectified.

Dataset Information

Ambiguity in the causes for decadal trends in atmospheric methane and hydroxyl.

Publications

Ambiguity in the causes for decadal trends in atmospheric methane and hydroxyl.

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