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Spirometric predictors of lung function decline and mortality in early chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

ABSTRACT: RATIONALE:The course of lung function decline for smokers with early airflow obstruction remains undefined. It is also unclear which early spirometric characteristics identify individuals at risk for rapid decline and increased mortality. OBJECTIVES:To determine the association between spirometric measures and 5-year decline in FEV(1) and 12-year mortality. METHODS:We analyzed longitudinal data from the Lung Health Study, a clinical trial of intensive smoking cessation intervention with or without bronchodilator therapy in 5,887 smokers with mild to moderate airflow obstruction. Participants were stratified into bins of baseline FEV(1) to FVC ratio, using bins of 5%, and separately into bins of Z-score (difference between actual and predicted FEV(1)/FVC, normalized to SD of predicted FEV(1)/FVC). Associations between spirometric measures and FEV(1) decline and mortality were determined after adjusting for baseline characteristics and time-varying smoking status. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:The cohort was approximately two-thirds male, predominantly of white race (96%), and with mean age of 49 ± 7 years. In general, individuals with lower lung function by any metric had more rapid adjusted FEV(1) decline. A threshold for differential decline was present at FEV(1)/FVC less than 0.65 (P < 0.001) and Z-score less than -2 (2.3 percentile) (P < 0.001). At year 12, 575 (7.2%) of the cohort had died. Lower thresholds of each spirometric metric were associated with increasing adjusted hazard of death. CONCLUSIONS:Smokers at risk or with mild to moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease have accelerated lung function decline. Individuals with lower baseline FEV(1)/FVC have more rapid decline and worse mortality.

SUBMITTER: Drummond MB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5448583 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Spirometric predictors of lung function decline and mortality in early chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Drummond M Bradley MB Hansel Nadia N NN Connett John E JE Scanlon Paul D PD Tashkin Donald P DP Wise Robert A RA

American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine 20120503 12

<h4>Rationale</h4>The course of lung function decline for smokers with early airflow obstruction remains undefined. It is also unclear which early spirometric characteristics identify individuals at risk for rapid decline and increased mortality.<h4>Objectives</h4>To determine the association between spirometric measures and 5-year decline in FEV(1) and 12-year mortality.<h4>Methods</h4>We analyzed longitudinal data from the Lung Health Study, a clinical trial of intensive smoking cessation inte ...[more]

PMID: 22561963

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Project description:RationaleThe rate of decline of lung function is greater than age-related change in a substantial proportion of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, even after smoking cessation. Regions of the lung adjacent to emphysematous areas are subject to abnormal stretch during respiration, and this biomechanical stress likely influences emphysema initiation and progression.ObjectivesTo assess whether quantifying this penumbra of lung at risk would predict FEV1 decline.MethodsWe analyzed paired inspiratory-expiratory computed tomography images at baseline of 680 subjects participating in a large multicenter study (COPDGene) over approximately 5 years. By matching inspiratory and expiratory images voxel by voxel using image registration, we calculated the Jacobian determinant, a measure of local lung expansion and contraction with respiration. We measured the distance between each normal voxel to the nearest emphysematous voxel, and quantified the percentage of normal voxels within each millimeter distance from emphysematous voxels as mechanically affected lung (MAL). Multivariable regression analyses were performed to assess the relationship between the Jacobian determinant, MAL, and FEV1 decline.Measurements and main resultsThe mean (SD) rate of decline in FEV1 was 39.0 (58.6) ml/yr. There was a progressive decrease in the mean Jacobian determinant of both emphysematous and normal voxels with increasing disease stage (P < 0.001). On multivariable analyses, the mean Jacobian determinant of normal voxels within 2 mm of emphysematous voxels (MAL2) was significantly associated with FEV1 decline. In mild-moderate disease, for participants at or above the median MAL2 (threshold, 36.9%), the mean decline in FEV1 was 56.4 (68.0) ml/yr versus 43.2 (59.9) ml/yr for those below the median (P = 0.044).ConclusionsAreas of normal-appearing lung are mechanically influenced by emphysematous areas and this lung at risk is associated with lung function decline. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00608764).

Dataset Information

Spirometric predictors of lung function decline and mortality in early chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Publications

Spirometric predictors of lung function decline and mortality in early chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Similar Datasets

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