Dataset Information

What drives cold-related excess mortality in a south Asian tropical monsoon climate-season vs. temperatures and diurnal temperature changes.

ABSTRACT: Despite the tropical climate which is characterized by generally high temperatures and persistent mild temperatures during the winter season, Bangladesh, along with many other tropical countries, experiences strong winter and cold-related excess mortality. The objective of this paper was to analyse the nature of these cold effects and understand the role of season vs. temperature and diurnal changes in temperature. For approaching these questions, we applied different Poisson regression models. Temperature as well as diurnal temperature range (DTR) were considered as predictor variables. Different approaches to seasonality adjustment were evaluated and special consideration was given to seasonal differences in atmospheric effects. Our findings show that while seasonality adjustment affected the magnitude of cold effects, cold-related mortality persisted regardless the adjustment approach. Strongest effects of low temperatures were observed at the same day (lag 1) with an increase of 1.7% (95% CI = 0.86-2.54%) per 1 °C decrease in temperature during the winter season. Diurnal temperature affected mortality with increasing levels at higher ranges. Mortality increased with 0.97% (95% CI = 0.17-1.75%) when looking at the entire season, but effects of DTR were not significant during winter when running a seasonal model. Different from effects observed in the mid-latitudes, cold effects in Bangladesh occurred on a very short time scale highlighting the role of temperature versus season. Insufficient adaptation with regard to housing and clothing might lead to such cold-related increases in mortality despite rather moderate temperature values. Although the study did not demonstrate an effect of DTR during the cold season, the strong correlation with (minimum) temperature might cause a multicollinearity problem and effects are difficult to attribute to one driver.

SUBMITTER: Burkart K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5451306 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

What drives cold-related excess mortality in a south Asian tropical monsoon climate-season vs. temperatures and diurnal temperature changes.

Burkart Katrin K Kinney Patrick L PL

International journal of biometeorology 20161219 6

Despite the tropical climate which is characterized by generally high temperatures and persistent mild temperatures during the winter season, Bangladesh, along with many other tropical countries, experiences strong winter and cold-related excess mortality. The objective of this paper was to analyse the nature of these cold effects and understand the role of season vs. temperature and diurnal changes in temperature. For approaching these questions, we applied different Poisson regression models. ...[more]

PMID: 27995322

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundA significant increase in mortality was observed during cold winters in many temperate regions. However, there is a lack of evidence from tropical and subtropical regions, and the influence of ambient temperatures on seasonal variation of mortality was not well documented.MethodsThis study included 213,737 registered deaths from January 2003 to December 2011 in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in Southern China. Excess winter mortality was calculated by the excess percentage of monthly mortality in winters over that of non-winter months. A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to analyze the association between monthly mean temperature and mortality, after controlling for other meteorological measures and air pollution.ResultsThe mortality rate in the winter was 26% higher than the average rate in other seasons. On average, there were 1,848 excess winter deaths annually, with around half (52%) from cardiovascular diseases and a quarter (24%) from respiratory diseases. Excess winter mortality was higher in the elderly, females and those with low education level than the young, males and those with high education level, respectively. A much larger winter increase was observed in out-of-hospital mortality compared to in-hospital mortality (45% vs. 17%). We found a significant negative correlation of annual excess winter mortality with average winter temperature (rs=-0.738, P=0.037), but not with air pollution levels. A 1 °C decrease in monthly mean temperature was associated with an increase of 1.38% (95% CI:0.34%-2.40%) and 0.88% (95% CI:0.11%-1.64%) in monthly mortality at lags of 0-1 month, respectively.ConclusionSimilar to temperate regions, a subtropical city Guangzhou showed a clear seasonal pattern in mortality, with a sharper spike in winter. Our results highlight the role of cold temperature on the winter mortality even in warm climate. Precautionary measures should be strengthened to mitigate cold-related mortality for people living in warm climate.

Dataset Information

What drives cold-related excess mortality in a south Asian tropical monsoon climate-season vs. temperatures and diurnal temperature changes.

Publications

What drives cold-related excess mortality in a south Asian tropical monsoon climate-season vs. temperatures and diurnal temperature changes.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets