Dataset Information

Development and external validation of a clinical prognostic score for death in visceral leishmaniasis patients in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In Ethiopia, case fatality rates among subgroups of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) patients are high. A clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients could contribute to optimal management and reduction of these case fatality rates. We aimed to identify predictors of death from VL, and to develop and externally validate a clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients, in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.

Methodology/principal findings

We conducted a retrospective cohort study in north west Ethiopia. Predictors with an adjusted likelihood ratio ?1.5 or ?0.67 were retained to calculate the predictor score. The derivation cohort consisted of 1686 VL patients treated at an upgraded health center and the external validation cohort consisted of 404 VL patients treated in hospital. There were 99 deaths in the derivation cohort and 53 deaths in the external validation cohort. The predictors of death were: age >40 years (score +1); HIV seropositive (score +1); HIV seronegative (score -1); hemoglobin ?6.5 g/dl (score +1); bleeding (score +1); jaundice (score +1); edema (score +1); ascites (score +2) and tuberculosis (score +1). The total predictor score per patient ranged from -1 to +5. A score of -1, indicated a low risk of death (1.0%), a score of 0 an intermediate risk of death (3.8%) and a score of +1 to +5, a high risk of death (10.4-85.7%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.79-0.87) in derivation, and 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.83) in external validation.

Conclusions/significance

The overall performance of the score was good. The score can enable the early detection of VL cases at high risk of death, which can inform operational, clinical management guidelines, and VL program management. Implementation of focused strategies could contribute to optimal management and reduction of the case fatality rates.

SUBMITTER: Abongomera C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5459471 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development and external validation of a clinical prognostic score for death in visceral leishmaniasis patients in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.

Abongomera Charles C Ritmeijer Koert K Vogt Florian F Buyze Jozefien J Mekonnen Zelalem Z Admassu Henok H Colebunders Robert R Mohammed Rezika R Lynen Lutgarde L Diro Ermias E van Griensven Johan J

PloS one 20170605 6

<h4>Background</h4>In Ethiopia, case fatality rates among subgroups of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) patients are high. A clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients could contribute to optimal management and reduction of these case fatality rates. We aimed to identify predictors of death from VL, and to develop and externally validate a clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients, in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We conducted ...[more]

PMID: 28582440

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Project description:ObjectivesTo perform a temporal validation of a predictive model for death in children with visceral leishmaniasis (VL).MethodsA temporal validation of a children-exclusive predictive model of death due to VL (Sampaio et al. 2010 model), using a retrospective cohort, hereby called validation cohort. The validation cohort convenience sample was made of 156 patients less than 15 years old hospitalized between 2008 and 2018 with VL. Patients included in the Sampaio et al. 2010 study are here denominated derivation cohort, which was composed of 546 patients hospitalized in the same hospital setting in the period from 1996 to 2006. The calibration and discriminative capacity of the model to predict death by VL in the validation cohort were then assessed through the procedure of logistic recalibration that readjusted its coefficients. The calibration of the updated model was tested using Hosmer-Lemeshow test and Spiegelhalter test. A ROC curve was built and the value of the area under this curve represented the model's discrimination.ResultsThe validation cohort found a lethality of 6.4%. The Sampaio et al. 2010 model demonstrated inadequate calibration in the validation cohort (Spiegelhalter test: p=0.007). It also presented unsatisfactory discriminative capacity, evaluated by the area under the ROC curve = 0.618. After the coefficient readjustment, the model showed adequate calibration (Spiegelhalter test, p=0.988) and better discrimination, becoming satisfactory (AUROC = 0.762). The score developed by Sampaio et al. 2010 attributed 1 point to the variables dyspnea, associated infections, and neutrophil count <500/mm3; 2 points to jaundice and mucosal bleeding; and 3 points to platelet count <50,000/mm3. In the recalibrated model, each one of the variables had a scoring of 1 point for each.ConclusionThe temporally validated model, after coefficient readjustment, presented adequate calibration and discrimination to predict death in children hospitalized with VL.

Project description:BACKGROUND:In Brazil, lethality from visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is high and few studies have addressed prognostic factors. This historical cohort study was designed to investigate the prognostic factors for death from VL in Belo Horizonte (Brazil). METHODOLOGY:The analysis was based on data of the Reportable Disease Information System-SINAN (Brazilian Ministry of Health) relating to the clinical manifestations of the disease. During the study period (2002-2009), the SINAN changed platform from a Windows to a Net-version that differed with respect to some of the parameters collected. Multivariate logistic regression models were performed to identify variables associated with death from VL, and these were included in prognostic score. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Model 1 (period 2002-2009; 111 deaths from VL and 777 cured patients) included the variables present in both SINAN versions, whereas Model 2 (period 2007-2009; 49 deaths from VL and 327 cured patients) included variables common to both SINAN versions plus the additional variables included in the Net version. In Model 1, the variables significantly associated with a greater risk of death from VL were weakness (OR 2.9; 95%CI 1.3-6.4), Leishmania-HIV co-infection (OR 2.4; 95%CI 1.2-4.8) and age ?60 years (OR 2.5; 95%CI 1.5-4.3). In Model 2, the variables were bleeding (OR 3.5; 95%CI 1.2-10.3), other associated infections (OR 3.2; 95%CI 1.3-7.8), jaundice (OR 10.1; 95%CI 3.7-27.2) and age ?60 years (OR 3.1; 95%CI 1.4-7.1). The prognosis score was developed using the variables associated with death from VL of the latest version of the SINAN (Model 2). The predictive performance of which was evaluated by sensitivity (71.4%), specificity (73.7%), positive and negative predictive values (28.9% and 94.5%) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (75.6%). CONCLUSIONS:Knowledge regarding the factors associated with death from VL may improve clinical management of patients and contribute to lower mortality.

Project description:BackgroundVisceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease endemic to several countries including Ethiopia. Outside of Africa, kidney involvement in VL is frequent and associated with increased mortality. There is however limited data on acute kidney injury (AKI) in VL patients in East-Africa, particularly in areas with high rates of HIV co-infection. This study aims to determine the prevalence, characteristics and associated factors of AKI in VL patients in Northwest Ethiopia.MethodsA hospital based retrospective patient record analysis was conducted including patients treated for VL from January 2019 to December 2019 at the Leishmaniasis Research and Treatment Center (LRTC), Gondar, Ethiopia. Patients that were enrolled in ongoing clinical trials at the study site and those with significant incomplete data were excluded. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 20. P values were considered significant if < 0.05.ResultsAmong 352 VL patients treated at LRTC during the study period, 298 were included in the study. All were male patients except two; the median age was 23 years (IQR: 20-27). The overall prevalence of AKI among VL patients was 17.4% (confidence interval (CI): 13.6%-22.2%). Pre-renal azotemia (57%) and drug-induced AKI (50%) were the main etiologies of AKI at admission and post-admission respectively. Proteinuria and hematuria occurred in 85% and 42% of AKI patients respectively. Multivariate logistic regression revealed HIV co-infection (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 6.01 95% CI: 1.99-18.27, p = 0.001) and other concomitant infections (AOR: 3.44 95% CI: 1.37-8.65, p = 0.009) to be independently associated with AKI.ConclusionAKI is a frequent complication in Ethiopian VL patients. Other renal manifestations included proteinuria, hematuria, and pyuria. HIV co-infection and other concomitant infections were significantly associated with AKI. Further studies are needed to quantify proteinuria and evaluate the influence of AKI on the treatment course, morbidity and mortality in VL patients.

Project description:Visceral Leishmaniasis is a very dangerous form of leishmaniasis and, shorn of appropriate diagnosis and handling, it leads to death and physical disability. Depicting the spatiotemporal pattern of disease is important for disease regulator and deterrence strategies. Spatiotemporal modeling has distended broad veneration in recent years. Spatial and spatiotemporal disease modeling is extensively used for the analysis of registry data and usually articulated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. In this study, we have developed the hierarchical spatiotemporal Bayesian modeling of the infected rate of Visceral leishmaniasis in Human (VLH). We applied the Stochastics Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approach for a spatiotemporal hierarchical model for Visceral leishmaniasis in human (VLH) that involves a GF and a state process is associated with an autoregressive order one temporal dynamics and the spatially correlated error term, along with the effect of land shield, metrological, demographic, socio-demographic and geographical covariates in an endemic area of Amhara regional state, Ethiopia. The model encompasses a Gaussian Field (GF), affected by an error term, and a state process described by a first-order autoregressive dynamic model and spatially correlated innovations. A hierarchical model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to the infected rate of Visceral leishmaniasis in human (VLH) weekly data from January 2015 to December 2017 using the R package R-INLA, which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. We found that the mean weekly temperature had a significant positive association with infected rate of VLH. Moreover, net migration rate, clean water coverage, average number of households, population density per square kilometer, average number of persons per household unit, education coverage, health facility coverage, mortality rate, and sex ratio had a significant association with the infected rate of visceral leishmaniasis (VLH) in the region. In this study, we investigated the dynamic spatiotemporal modeling of Visceral leishmaniasis in Human (VLH) through a stochastic partial differential equation approach (SPDE) using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). Our study had confirmed both metrological, demographic, sociodemographic and geographic covariates had a significant association with the infected rate of visceral leishmaniasis (VLH) in the region.

Project description:BackgroundVisceral leishmaniasis (VL), a vector-borne disease caused by species of the L.donovani complex, has (re)-emerged in Ethiopia during the last two decades and is currently of increasing public health concern. However, very little is known about VL epidemiology in the Somali Region of Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to provide detailed epidemiological information on seroprevalence, associated factors and incriminated vectors of VL in Shebelle Zone and Ethiopian Somali Region in general.MethodsA cross-sectional epidemiological study was conducted between March and May 2016 in Gode and Adadle districts of Shebelle Zone, Ethiopian Somali Region. Two-stage semi-random sampling was applied for selecting study participants for the field survey. The study included structured questionnaire interviews, serological assays (rK39-immunochromatographic test), ELISA and entomological surveys.ResultsFrom a total of 361 participants, 57 (15.8%) were seropositive for VL including 46 (12.7%) rK39 positive and 11 (3.0%) positive by both rK39 and ELISA. VL seroprevalence was higher (P < 0.001) in Adadle (31.1%) compared to Gode (12.7%) district. The VL seroprevalence rate was higher in females than in males [rK39 (17.2 vs 14.0%) and ELISA (3.4 vs 2.5%)]. Children under the 15 years of age were the most highly affected group [rK39 (20.4%) and ELISA (4.4%)]. Increased VL risk was associated with presence of termite hills, study district, outdoor sleeping, Acacia trees and domestic animals [odds ratio (95% confidence interval): 12.58 (5.911-26.763), 5.40 (2.90-10.07), 5.31 (2.283-12.364), 2.37 (1.1190-4.728) and 0.199 (0.097-0.410), respectively]. The entomological survey identified 74 Phlebotomus [P. (Larroussius) orientalis (52/74), P. (Anaphlebotomus) rodhaini (14/74), P. (Paraphlebotomus) sergenti (8/74)] and 11 Sergentomyia sand flies. The average frequency of P. orientalis (3.06 ± 0.66) collected by all traps per night was higher than that of other species. The average frequency of total and specific (P. orientalis) female sand flies was higher in Adadle (1.89 ± 0.423 vs 1.11 ± 0.309) than in Gode (0.62 ± 0.324 vs 0.38 ± 0.183) district. The highest mean numbers of total (8 ± 1.5) and P. orientalis (6 ± 0.913) sand flies were collected in termite hills.ConclusionsThe present findings revealed potential new VL-transmission foci in the study districts. Therefore, the need for parasitological and molecular characterization of the parasite in humans and vector sand flies is of paramount importance to confirm transmission.

Dataset Information

Development and external validation of a clinical prognostic score for death in visceral leishmaniasis patients in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.

Background

Methodology/principal findings

Conclusions/significance

Publications

Development and external validation of a clinical prognostic score for death in visceral leishmaniasis patients in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.

Similar Datasets

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