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Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7.

ABSTRACT: Although mean efficacy of multivalent pneumococcus vaccines has been intensively studied, variance in vaccine efficacy (VE) has been overlooked. Different net individual protection across settings can be driven by environmental conditions, local serotype and clonal composition, as well as by socio-demographic and genetic host factors. Understanding efficacy variation has implications for population-level effectiveness and other eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Here I show that realized VE can vary across epidemiological settings, by applying a multi-site-one-model approach to data post-vaccination. I analyse serotype prevalence dynamics following PCV7, in asymptomatic carriage in children attending day care in Portugal, Norway, France, Greece, Hungary and Hong-Kong. Model fitting to each dataset provides site-specific estimates for vaccine efficacy against acquisition, and pneumococcal transmission parameters. According to this model, variable serotype replacement across sites can be explained through variable PCV7 efficacy, ranging from 40% in Norway to 10% in Hong-Kong. While the details of how this effect is achieved remain to be determined, here I report three factors negatively associated with the VE readout, including initial prevalence of serotype 19F, daily mean temperature, and the Gini index. The study warrants more attention on local modulators of vaccine performance and calls for predictive frameworks within and across populations.

SUBMITTER: Gjini E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5468270 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7.

Gjini Erida E

Scientific reports 20170612 1

Although mean efficacy of multivalent pneumococcus vaccines has been intensively studied, variance in vaccine efficacy (VE) has been overlooked. Different net individual protection across settings can be driven by environmental conditions, local serotype and clonal composition, as well as by socio-demographic and genetic host factors. Understanding efficacy variation has implications for population-level effectiveness and other eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Here I show that realized VE can vary ac ...[more]

PMID: 28607461

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Project description:BACKGROUND:China has experienced several severe outbreaks of influenza over the past century: 1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009. Influenza itself can be deadly; however, the increase in mortality during an influenza outbreak is also attributable to secondary bacterial infections, specifically pneumococcal disease. Given the history of pandemic outbreaks and the associated morbidity and mortality, we investigated the cost-effectiveness of a PCV7 vaccination program in China from the context of typical and pandemic influenza seasons. METHODS:A decision-analytic model was employed to evaluate the impact of a 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) infant vaccination program on the incidence, mortality, and cost associated with pneumococcal disease during a typical influenza season (15% flu incidence) and influenza pandemic (30% flu incidence) in China. The model incorporated Chinese data where available and included both direct and indirect (herd) effects on the unvaccinated population, assuming a point in time following the initial introduction of the vaccine where the impact of the indirect effects has reached a steady state, approximately seven years following the implementation of the vaccine program. Pneumococcal disease incidence, mortality, and costs were evaluated over a one year time horizon. Healthcare costs were calculated using a payer perspective and included vaccination program costs and direct medical expenditures from pneumococcal disease. RESULTS:The model predicted that routine PCV7 vaccination of infants in China would prevent 5,053,453 cases of pneumococcal disease and 76,714 deaths in a single year during a normal influenza season.The estimated incremental-cost-effectiveness ratios were ¥12,281 (US$1,900) per life-year saved and ¥13,737 (US$2,125) per quality-adjusted-life-year gained. During an influenza pandemic, the model estimated that routine vaccination with PCV7 would prevent 8,469,506 cases of pneumococcal disease and 707,526 deaths, and would be cost-saving. CONCLUSIONS:Routine vaccination with PCV7 in China would be a cost-effective strategy at limiting the negative impact of influenza during a typical influenza season. During an influenza pandemic, the benefit of PCV7 in preventing excess pneumococcal morbidity and mortality renders a PCV7 vaccination program cost-saving.

Project description:BackgroundPCV7 was introduced as universal childhood vaccination in Israel in July 2009 and PCV13 in November 2010. Here we report data on adult invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), two years post PCV7 implementation and before an expected effect of PCV13.MethodsAn ongoing nationwide active-surveillance (all 27 laboratories performing blood cultures in Israel), providing all blood & CSF S. pneumoniae isolates from persons >18 y was initiated in July 2009. Capture-recapture method assured reporting of >95% cases. All isolates were serotyped in one central laboratory. IPD outcome and medical history were recorded in 90%. Second year post PCV implementation is compared to the first year.ResultsDuring July 2009 to June 2011, 970 IPD cases were reported (annual incidence [/100,000] of 9.17 and 10.16 in the two consecutive years, respectively). Respective case fatality rates (CFRs) were 20% and 19.1%. Incidence of IPD and CFR increased with age and number of comorbidities. Incidence rate was significantly greater during the second winter, 7.79/100,000 vs. 6.14/100,000 in first winter, p = 0.004, with a non-significant decrease during summer months (3.02 to 2.48/100,000). The proportion of IPD cases due to PCV7-serotypes decreased from 27.5% to 13.1% (first to second year) (p<0.001). Yet, non-PCV13-strains increased from 32.7% to 40.2% (p = 0.017). The increase in non-PCV13-strains was highly significant in immunocompromised patients and to a lesser degree in non-immunocompromised at risk or in older patients (>64 y). Among younger/healthier patients serotype 5 was the major increasing serotype. Penicillin and ceftriaxone resistance decreased significantly in the second year.ConclusionsWhile overall annual incidence of IPD did not change, the indirect effect of PCV7 vaccination was evident by the significant decrease in PCV7 serotypes across all age groups. Increase in non-VT13 strains was significant in immunocompromised patients. A longer follow-up is required to appreciate the full effect of infant vaccination on annual IPD.

Project description:Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of severe bacterial infections globally. A full understanding of the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) on pneumococcal disease burden, following its introduction in 2009 in South Africa, can support national policy on PCV use and assist with policy decisions elsewhere.We developed a model to estimate the national burden of severe pneumococcal disease, i.e. disease requiring hospitalisation, pre- (2005-2008) and post-PCV introduction (2012-2013) in children aged 0-59 months in South Africa. We estimated case numbers for invasive pneumococcal disease using data from the national laboratory-based surveillance, adjusted for specimen-taking practices. We estimated non-bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia case numbers using vaccine probe study data. To estimate pneumococcal deaths, we applied observed case fatality ratios to estimated case numbers. Estimates were stratified by HIV status to account for the impact of PCV and HIV-related interventions. We assessed how different assumptions affected estimates using a sensitivity analysis. Bootstrapping created confidence intervals.In the pre-vaccine era, a total of approximately 107,600 (95% confidence interval [CI] 83,000-140,000) cases of severe hospitalised pneumococcal disease were estimated to have occurred annually. Following PCV introduction and the improvement in HIV interventions, 41,800 (95% CI 28,000-50,000) severe pneumococcal disease cases were estimated in 2012-2013, a rate reduction of 1,277 cases per 100,000 child-years. Approximately 5000 (95% CI 3000-6000) pneumococcal-related annual deaths were estimated in the pre-vaccine period and 1,900 (95% CI 1000-2500) in 2012-2013, a mortality rate difference of 61 per 100,000 child-years.While a large number of hospitalisations and deaths due to pneumococcal disease still occur among children 0-59 months in South Africa, we found a large reduction in this estimate that is temporally associated with PCV introduction. In HIV-infected individuals the scale-up of other interventions, such as improvements in HIV care, may have also contributed to the declines in pneumococcal burden.

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Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7.

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Geographic variation in pneumococcal vaccine efficacy estimated from dynamic modeling of epidemiological data post-PCV7.

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