Dataset Information

Particulate Air Pollution from Wildfires in the Western US under Climate Change.

ABSTRACT: Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) directly attributable to wildfires in 561 western US counties during fire seasons for the present-day (2004-2009) and future (2046-2051), using a fire prediction model and GEOS-Chem, a 3-D global chemical transport model. Future estimates are obtained under a scenario of moderately increasing greenhouse gases by mid-century. We create a new term "Smoke Wave," defined as ?2 consecutive days with high wildfire-specific PM2.5, to describe episodes of high air pollution from wildfires. We develop an interactive map to demonstrate the counties likely to suffer from future high wildfire pollution events. For 2004-2009, on days exceeding regulatory PM2.5 standards, wildfires contributed an average of 71.3% of total PM2.5. Under future climate change, we estimate that more than 82 million individuals will experience a 57% and 31% increase in the frequency and intensity, respectively, of Smoke Waves. Northern California, Western Oregon and the Great Plains are likely to suffer the highest exposure to widlfire smoke in the future. Results point to the potential health impacts of increasing wildfire activity on large numbers of people in a warming climate and the need to establish or modify US wildfire management and evacuation programs in high-risk regions. The study also adds to the growing literature arguing that extreme events in a changing climate could have significant consequences for human health.

SUBMITTER: Liu JC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5476308 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Particulate Air Pollution from Wildfires in the Western US under Climate Change.

Liu Jia Coco JC Mickley Loretta J LJ Sulprizio Melissa P MP Dominici Francesca F Yue Xu X Ebisu Keita K Anderson Georgiana Brooke GB Khan Rafi F A RFA Bravo Mercedes A MA Bell Michelle L ML

Climatic change 20160730 3

Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) directly attributable to wildfires i ...[more]

PMID: 28642628

Similar Datasets

Project description:Alaskan wildfires are becoming more frequent and severe, but very little is known regarding exposure to wildfire smoke, a risk factor for respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses. We estimated long-term, present-day and future exposure to wildfire-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) across Alaska for the general population and subpopulations to assess vulnerability using observed data for the present day (1997-2010), modelled estimates for the present day (1997-2001), and modelled estimates for the future (2047-2051). First, we assessed wildfire-PM2.5 exposure by estimating monthly-average wildfire-specific PM2.5 levels across 1997-2010 for 158 Alaskan census tracts, using atmospheric transport modelling based on observed area-burned data. Second, we estimated changes in future (2047-2051) wildfire-PM2.5 exposure compared to the present-day (1997-2001) by estimating the monthly-average wildfire-specific PM2.5 levels for 29 boroughs/census areas (county-equivalent areas), under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario from an ensemble of 13 climate models. Subpopulation risks for present and future exposure levels were estimated by summing area-weighted exposure levels utilizing the 2000 Census and State of Alaska's population projections. We assessed vulnerability by several subpopulation characteristics (e.g. race/ethnicity, urbanicity). Wildfire-PM2.5 exposure levels during 1997-2010 were highest in interior Alaska during July. Among subpopulations, average summer (June-August) exposure levels for urban dwellers and African-American/Blacks were highest at 9.1 μg m-3 and 10 μg m-3, respectively. Estimated wildfire-PM2.5 varied by Native American tribe, ranging from average summer levels of 2.4 μg m-3 to 13 μg m-3 for Tlingit-Haida and Alaskan Athabascan tribes, respectively. Estimates indicate that by the mid-21st century, under climate change, almost all of Alaska could be exposed to increases of 100% or more in levels of wildfire-specific PM2.5 levels. Exposure to wildfire-PM2.5 likely presents a substantial public health burden in the present day for Alaska communities, with different impacts by subpopulation. Under climate change, wildfire smoke could pose an even greater public health risks for most Alaskans.

Project description:We review science-based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure and composition of forested landscapes. As part of the review, we address common questions associated with climate adaptation and realignment treatments that run counter to a broad consensus in the literature. These include the following: (1) Are the effects of fire exclusion overstated? If so, are treatments unwarranted and even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient to mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can forest thinning and prescribed burning solve the problem? (4) Should active forest management, including forest thinning, be concentrated in the wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) Can wildfires on their own do the work of fuel treatments? (6) Is the primary objective of fuel reduction treatments to assist in future firefighting response and containment? (7) Do fuel treatments work under extreme fire weather? (8) Is the scale of the problem too great? Can we ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees mitigate climate change in wNA forests? And (10) is post-fire management needed or even ecologically justified? Based on our review of the scientific evidence, a range of proactive management actions are justified and necessary to keep pace with changing climatic and wildfire regimes and declining forest heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science-based adaptation options include the use of managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and coupled mechanical thinning and prescribed burning as is consistent with land management allocations and forest conditions. Although some current models of fire management in wNA are averse to short-term risks and uncertainties, the long-term environmental, social, and cultural consequences of wildfire management primarily grounded in fire suppression are well documented, highlighting an urgency to invest in intentional forest management and restoration of active fire regimes.

Project description:BackgroundRising temperatures due to climate change are expected to impact human adaptive response, including changes to home cooling and ventilation patterns. These changes may affect air pollution exposures via alteration in residential air exchange rates, affecting indoor infiltration of outdoor particles. We conducted a field study examining associations between particle infiltration and temperature to inform future studies of air pollution health effects.MethodsWe measured indoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Atlanta in 60 homes (810 sampling-days). Indoor-outdoor sulfur ratios were used to estimate particle infiltration, using central site outdoor sulfur concentrations. Linear and mixed-effects models were used to examine particle infiltration ratio-temperature relationships, based on which we incorporated projected meteorological values (Representative Concentration Pathways intermediate scenario RCP 4.5) to estimate particle infiltration ratios in 20-year future (2046-2065) and past (1981-2000) scenarios.ResultsThe mean particle infiltration ratio in Atlanta was 0.70 ± 0.30, with a 0.21 lower ratio in summer compared to transition seasons (spring, fall). Particle infiltration ratios were 0.19 lower in houses using heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems compared to those not using HVAC. We observed significant associations between particle infiltration ratios and both linear and quadratic models of ambient temperature for homes using natural ventilation and those using HVAC. Future temperature was projected to increase by 2.1 °C in Atlanta, which corresponds to an increase of 0.023 (3.9%) in particle infiltration ratios during cooler months and a decrease of 0.037 (6.2%) during warmer months.DiscussionWe estimated notable changes in particle infiltration ratio in Atlanta for different 20-year periods, with differential seasonal patterns. Moreover, when stratified by HVAC usage, increases in future ambient temperature due to climate change were projected to enhance seasonal differences in PM2.5 infiltration in Atlanta. These analyses can help minimize exposure misclassification in epidemiologic studies of PM2.5, and provide a better understanding of the potential influence of climate change on PM2.5 health effects.

Project description:Autism is a heterogeneous disorder with genetic and environmental factors likely contributing to its origins. Examination of hazardous pollutants has suggested the importance of air toxics in the etiology of autism, yet little research has examined its association with local levels of air pollution using residence-specific exposure assignments.To examine the relationship between traffic-related air pollution, air quality, and autism.This population-based case-control study includes data obtained from children with autism and control children with typical development who were enrolled in the Childhood Autism Risks from Genetics and the Environment study in California. The mother's address from the birth certificate and addresses reported from a residential history questionnaire were used to estimate exposure for each trimester of pregnancy and first year of life. Traffic-related air pollution was assigned to each location using a line-source air-quality dispersion model. Regional air pollutant measures were based on the Environmental Protection Agency's Air Quality System data. Logistic regression models compared estimated and measured pollutant levels for children with autism and for control children with typical development.Case-control study from California.A total of 279 children with autism and a total of 245 control children with typical development.Crude and multivariable adjusted odds ratios (AORs) for autism.Children with autism were more likely to live at residences that had the highest quartile of exposure to traffic-related air pollution, during gestation (AOR, 1.98 [95% CI, 1.20-3.31]) and during the first year of life (AOR, 3.10 [95% CI, 1.76-5.57]), compared with control children. Regional exposure measures of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter less than 2.5 and 10 ?m in diameter (PM2.5 and PM10) were also associated with autism during gestation (exposure to nitrogen dioxide: AOR, 1.81 [95% CI, 1.37-3.09]; exposure to PM2.5: AOR, 2.08 [95% CI, 1.93-2.25]; exposure to PM10: AOR, 2.17 [95% CI, 1.49-3.16) and during the first year of life (exposure to nitrogen dioxide: AOR, 2.06 [95% CI, 1.37-3.09]; exposure to PM2.5: AOR, 2.12 [95% CI, 1.45-3.10]; exposure to PM10: AOR, 2.14 [95% CI, 1.46-3.12]). All regional pollutant estimates were scaled to twice the standard deviation of the distribution for all pregnancy estimates.Exposure to traffic-related air pollution, nitrogen dioxide, PM2.5, and PM10 during pregnancy and during the first year of life was associated with autism. Further epidemiological and toxicological examinations of likely biological pathways will help determine whether these associations are causal.

Dataset Information

Particulate Air Pollution from Wildfires in the Western US under Climate Change.

Publications

Particulate Air Pollution from Wildfires in the Western US under Climate Change.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets