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A concise revised Myeloma Comorbidity Index as a valid prognostic instrument in a large cohort of 801 multiple myeloma patients.

ABSTRACT: With growing numbers of elderly multiple myeloma patients, reliable tools to assess their vulnerability are required. The objective of the analysis herein was to develop and validate an easy to use myeloma risk score (revised Myeloma Comorbidity Index) that allows for risk prediction of overall survival and progression-free survival differences in a large patient cohort. We conducted a comprehensive comorbidity, frailty and disability evaluation in 801 consecutive myeloma patients, including comorbidity risks obtained at diagnosis. The cohort was examined within a training and validation set. Multivariate analysis determined renal, lung and Karnofsky Performance Status impairment, frailty and age as significant risks for overall survival. These were combined in a weighted revised Myeloma Comorbidity Index, allowing for the identification of fit (revised Myeloma Comorbidity Index ?3 [n=247, 30.8%]), intermediate-fit (revised Myeloma Comorbidity Index 4-6 [n=446, 55.7%]) and frail patients (revised Myeloma Comorbidity Index >6 [n=108, 13.5%]): these subgroups, confirmed via validation analysis, showed median overall survival rates of 10.1, 4.4 and 1.2 years, respectively. The revised Myeloma Comorbidity Index was compared to other commonly used comorbidity indices (Charlson Comorbidity Index, Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation-Specific Comorbidity Index, Kaplan-Feinstein Index): if each were divided in risk groups based on 25% and 75% quartiles, highest hazard ratios, best prediction and Brier scores were achieved with the revised Myeloma Comorbidity Index. The advantages of the revised Myeloma Comorbidity Index include its accurate assessment of patients' physical conditions and simple clinical applicability. We propose the revised Myeloma Comorbidity Index to be tested with the "reference" International Myeloma Working Group frailty score in multicenter analyses and future clinical trials. The study was registered at the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS-00003868).

SUBMITTER: Engelhardt M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5477610 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A concise revised Myeloma Comorbidity Index as a valid prognostic instrument in a large cohort of 801 multiple myeloma patients.

Engelhardt Monika M Domm Anne-Saskia AS Dold Sandra Maria SM Ihorst Gabriele G Reinhardt Heike H Zober Alexander A Hieke Stefanie S Baayen Corine C Müller Stefan Jürgen SJ Einsele Hermann H Sonneveld Pieter P Landgren Ola O Schumacher Martin M Wäsch Ralph R

Haematologica 20170202 5

With growing numbers of elderly multiple myeloma patients, reliable tools to assess their vulnerability are required. The objective of the analysis herein was to develop and validate an easy to use myeloma risk score (revised Myeloma Comorbidity Index) that allows for risk prediction of overall survival and progression-free survival differences in a large patient cohort. We conducted a comprehensive comorbidity, frailty and disability evaluation in 801 consecutive myeloma patients, including com ...[more]

PMID: 28154088

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Project description:BackgroundIt is essential to assess the need for palliative care and the life prognosis of elderly nursing home residents with an advanced chronic condition, and the NECPAL ICO-CCOMS©4.0 prognostic instrument may be adequate for both purposes. The objective of this study was to examine the predictive capacity of NECPAL, the Palliative Prognosis Index, and the PROFUND index in elderly residents with advanced chronic condition with and without dementia, comparing their results at different time points.MethodsThis prospective observational study was undertaken in eight nursing homes, following the survival of 146 residents with advanced chronic condition (46.6% with dementia) at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. The capacity of the three instruments to predict mortality was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), with 95% confidence interval, for the global population and separately for residents with and without dementia.ResultsThe mean age of residents was 84.63 years (± 8.989 yrs); 67.8% were female. The highest predictive capacity was found for PROFUND at 3 months (95%CI: 0.526-0.756; p = 0.016), for PROFUND and NECPAL at 12 months (non-significant; AUC > 0.5), and NECPAL at 24 months (close-to-significant (AUC = 0.624; 95% CI: 0.499-0.750; p = 0.053). The highest capacity at 12 months was obtained using PROFUND in residents with dementia (AUC = 0.698; 95%CI: 0.566-0.829; p = 0.003) and NECPAL in residents without dementia (non-significant; AUC = 0.649; 95%CI: 0.432-0.867; p = 0.178). Significant differences in AUC values were observed between PROFUND at 12 (p = 0.017) and 24 (p = 0.028) months.ConclusionsPROFUND offers the most accurate prediction of survival in elderly care home residents with advanced chronic condition overall and in those with dementia, especially over the short term, whereas NECPAL ICO-CCOMS©4.0 appears to be the most useful to predict the long-term survival of residents without dementia. These results support early evaluation of the need for palliative care in elderly care home residents with advanced chronic condition.

Project description:Autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHCT) improves survival in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) but is associated with morbidity and nonrelapse mortality (NRM). Hematopoietic cell transplant comorbidity index (HCT-CI) was shown to predict risk of NRM and survival after allogeneic transplantation. We tested the utility of HCT-CI as a predictor of NRM and survival in patients with MM undergoing AHCT. We analyzed outcomes of 1156 patients of AHCT after high-dose melphalan reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research. Individual comorbidities were prospectively collected at the time of AHCT. The impact of HCT-CI and other potential prognostic factors, including Karnofsky performance score (KPS), on NRM and survival were studied in multivariate Cox regression models. HCT-CI score was 0, 1, 2, 3, and >3 in 42%, 18%, 13%, 13%, and 14% of the study cohort, respectively. Subjects were stratified into 3 risk groups: HCT-CI score of 0 (42%) versus HCT-CI score of 1 to 2 (32%) versus HCT-CI score > 2 (26%). Higher HCT-CI was associated with lower KPS < 90 (33% of subjects score of 0 versus 50% in HCT-CI score > 2). HCT-CI score > 2 was associated with melphalan dose reduction (22% versus 10% in score 0 cohort). One-year NRM was low at 2% (95% confidence interval, 1% to 4%) and did not correlate with HCT-CI score (P = .9). On multivariate analysis, overall survival was inferior in groups with HCT-CI score of 1 to 2 (relative risk, 1.37, [95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.87], P = .04) and HCT-CI score > 2 (relative risk, 1.5 [95% confidence interval, 1.09 to 2.08], P = .01). Overall survival was also inferior with KPS < 90 (P < .001), IgA subtype (P ≤ .001), those receiving >1 pretransplant induction regimen (P = .007), and those with resistant disease at the time of AHCT (P < .001). AHCT for MM is associated with low NRM, and death is predominantly related to disease progression. Although a higher HCT-CI score did not predict NRM, it was associated with inferior survival.

Dataset Information

A concise revised Myeloma Comorbidity Index as a valid prognostic instrument in a large cohort of 801 multiple myeloma patients.

Publications

A concise revised Myeloma Comorbidity Index as a valid prognostic instrument in a large cohort of 801 multiple myeloma patients.

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