Dataset Information

Multimodality Strategy for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: Performance in 2 Population-Based Cohorts.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Current strategies for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment among adults without known CVD are limited by suboptimal performance and a narrow focus on only atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD). We hypothesized that a strategy combining promising biomarkers across multiple different testing modalities would improve global and atherosclerotic CVD risk assessment among individuals without known CVD. METHODS:We included participants from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) (n=6621) and the Dallas Heart Study (n=2202) who were free from CVD and underwent measurement of left ventricular hypertrophy by ECG, coronary artery calcium, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Associations of test results with the global composite CVD outcome (CVD death, myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary or peripheral revascularization, incident heart failure, or atrial fibrillation) and ASCVD (fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke) were assessed over >10 years of follow-up. Multivariable analyses for the primary global CVD end point adjusted for traditional risk factors plus statin use and creatinine (base model). RESULTS:Each test result was independently associated with global composite CVD events in MESA after adjustment for the components of the base model and the other test results (P<0.05 for each). When the 5 tests were added to the base model, the c-statistic improved from 0.74 to 0.79 (P=0.001), significant integrated discrimination improvement (0.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.06-0.08, P<0.001) and category free net reclassification improvement (0.47; 95% CI, 0.38-0.56; P=0.003) were observed, and the model was well calibrated (?2=12.2, P=0.20). Using a simple integer score counting the number of abnormal tests, compared with those with a score of 0, global CVD risk was increased among participants with a score of 1 (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.4-2.6), 2 (hazard ratio, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.3-4.4), 3 (hazard ratio, 4.7; 95% CI, 3.4-6.5), and ?4 (hazard ratio, 7.5; 95% CI, 5.2-10.6). Findings replicated in the Dallas Health Study were similar for the ASCVD outcome. CONCLUSIONS:Among adults without known CVD, a novel multimodality testing strategy using left ventricular hypertrophy by ECG, coronary artery calcium, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein significantly improved global CVD and ASCVD risk assessment.

SUBMITTER: de Lemos JA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5486874 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Multimodality Strategy for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: Performance in 2 Population-Based Cohorts.

de Lemos James A JA Ayers Colby R CR Levine Benjamin D BD deFilippi Christopher R CR Wang Thomas J TJ Hundley W Gregory WG Berry Jarett D JD Seliger Stephen L SL McGuire Darren K DK Ouyang Pamela P Drazner Mark H MH Budoff Matthew M Greenland Philip P Ballantyne Christie M CM Khera Amit A

Circulation 20170330 22

<h4>Background</h4>Current strategies for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment among adults without known CVD are limited by suboptimal performance and a narrow focus on only atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD). We hypothesized that a strategy combining promising biomarkers across multiple different testing modalities would improve global and atherosclerotic CVD risk assessment among individuals without known CVD.<h4>Methods</h4>We included participants from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atheroscl ...[more]

PMID: 28360032

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Project description:BackgroundChronic kidney disease has emerged as a strong cardiovascular risk factor, and in many current guidelines, it is already considered as a coronary heart disease (CHD) equivalent. Routinely, creatinine has been used as the main marker of renal function, but recently, cystatin C emerged as a more promising marker. The aim of this study was to assess the comparative cardiovascular and mortality risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) using cystatin C-based and creatinine-based equations of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in participants of population-based and disease cohorts.MethodsThe present study has been conducted within the BiomarCaRE project, with harmonized data from 20 population-based cohorts (n = 76,954) from 6 European countries and 3 cardiovascular disease (CVD) cohorts (n = 4982) from Germany. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess hazard ratios (HRs) for the various CKD definitions with adverse outcomes and mortality after adjustment for the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) variables and study center. Main outcome measures were cardiovascular diseases, cardiovascular death, and all-cause mortality.ResultsThe overall prevalence of CKD stage 3-5 by creatinine- and cystatin C-based eGFR, respectively, was 3.3% and 7.4% in the population-based cohorts and 13.9% and 14.4% in the disease cohorts. CKD was an important independent risk factor for subsequent CVD events and mortality. For example, in the population-based cohorts, the HR for CVD mortality was 1.72 (95% CI 1.53 to 1.92) with creatinine-based CKD and it was 2.14 (95% CI 1.90 to 2.40) based on cystatin-based CKD compared to participants without CKD. In general, the HRs were higher for cystatin C-based CKD compared to creatinine-based CKD, for all three outcomes and risk increased clearly below the conventional threshold for CKD, also in older adults. Net reclassification indices were larger for a cystatin-C based CKD definition. Differences in HRs (between the two CKD measures) in the disease cohorts were less pronounced than in the population-based cohorts.ConclusionCKD is an important risk factor for subsequent CVD events and total mortality. However, point estimates of creatinine- and cystatin C-based CKD differed considerably between low- and high-risk populations. Especially in low-risk settings, the use of cystatin C-based CKD may result in more accurate risk estimates and have better prognostic value.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Many coronary heart disease (CHD) events occur in individuals classified as intermediate risk by commonly used assessment tools. Over half the individuals presenting with a severe cardiac event, such as myocardial infarction (MI), have at most one risk factor as included in the widely used Framingham risk assessment. Individuals classified as intermediate risk, who are actually at high risk, may not receive guideline recommended treatments. A clinically useful method for accurately predicting 5-year CHD risk among intermediate risk patients remains an unmet medical need. OBJECTIVE:This study sought to develop a CHD Risk Assessment (CHDRA) model that improves 5-year risk stratification among intermediate risk individuals. METHODS:Assay panels for biomarkers associated with atherosclerosis biology (inflammation, angiogenesis, apoptosis, chemotaxis, etc.) were optimized for measuring baseline serum samples from 1084 initially CHD-free Marshfield Clinic Personalized Medicine Research Project (PMRP) individuals. A multivariable Cox regression model was fit using the most powerful risk predictors within the clinical and protein variables identified by repeated cross-validation. The resulting CHDRA algorithm was validated in a Multiple-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) case-cohort sample. RESULTS:A CHDRA algorithm of age, sex, diabetes, and family history of MI, combined with serum levels of seven biomarkers (CTACK, Eotaxin, Fas Ligand, HGF, IL-16, MCP-3, and sFas) yielded a clinical net reclassification index of 42.7% (p?<?0.001) for MESA patients with a recalibrated Framingham 5-year intermediate risk level. Across all patients, the model predicted acute coronary events (hazard ratio?=?2.17, p?<?0.001), and remained an independent predictor after Framingham risk factor adjustments. LIMITATIONS:These include the slightly different event definition with the MESA samples and inability to include PMRP fatal CHD events. CONCLUSIONS:A novel risk score of serum protein levels plus clinical risk factors, developed and validated in independent cohorts, demonstrated clinical utility for assessing the true risk of CHD events in intermediate risk patients. Improved accuracy in cardiovascular risk classification could lead to improved preventive care and fewer deaths.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Hyperuricemia and gout are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Xanthine oxidase inhibitors, allopurinol and febuxostat, are the mainstay of urate-lowering treatment for gout and may have different effects on cardiovascular risk in patients with gout. METHODS:Using US Medicare claims data (2008-2013), we conducted a cohort study for comparative cardiovascular safety of initiating febuxostat versus allopurinol among patients with gout ?65 years of age. The primary outcome was a composite end point of hospitalization for myocardial infarction or stroke. Secondary outcomes were individual end points of hospitalization for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, new and recurrent heart failure, and all-cause mortality. We used propensity score matching with a ratio of 1:3 to control for confounding. We estimated incidence rates and hazard ratios for primary and secondary outcomes in the propensity score-matched cohorts of febuxostat and allopurinol initiators. RESULTS:We included 24?936 febuxostat initiators propensity score-matched to 74?808 allopurinol initiators. The median age was 76 years, 52% were male, and 12% had cardiovascular disease at baseline. The incidence rate per 100 person-years for the primary outcome was 3.43 in febuxostat and 3.36 in allopurinol initiators. The hazard ratio for the primary outcome was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.94-1.08) in the febuxostat group compared with the allopurinol group. Risk of secondary outcomes including all-cause mortality was similar in both groups, except for a modestly decreased risk of heart failure exacerbation (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.91-0.99) in febuxostat initiators. The hazard ratio for all-cause mortality associated with long-term use of febuxostat (>3 years) was 1.25 (95% CI, 0.56-2.80) versus allopurinol. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses consistently showed similar cardiovascular risk in both groups. CONCLUSIONS:Among a cohort of 99?744 older Medicare patients with gout, overall there was no difference in the risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, new-onset heart failure, coronary revascularization, or all-cause mortality between patients initiating febuxostat compared with allopurinol. However, there seemed to be a trend toward an increased, albeit not statistically significant, risk for all-cause mortality in patients who used febuxostat for >3 years versus allopurinol for >3 years. The risk of heart failure exacerbation was slightly lower in febuxostat initiators.

Project description:From a regulatory perspective, drug quality consistency evaluation must concern different processes used for the same drug. In this study, an assessment strategy based on quality by design (QbD) was developed for population pharmaceutical quality evaluation. A descriptive analysis method based on QbD concept was first established to characterize the process by critical evaluation attributes (CEAs). Then quantitative analysis method based on an improved statistical process control (SPC) method was established to investigate the process indicators (PIs) in the process population, such as mean distribution, batch-to-batch difference and abnormal quality probability. After that rules for risk assessment were established based on the SPC limitations and parameters. Both the SPC parameters of the CEAs and the risk of PIs were visualized according to the interaction test results to obtain a better understanding of the population pharmaceutical quality. Finally, an assessment strategy was built and applied to generic drug consistency assessment, process risk assessment and quality trend tracking. The strategy demonstrated in this study could help reveal quality consistency from the perspective of process control and process risk, and further show the recent development status of domestic pharmaceutical production processes. In addition, a process risk assessment and population quality trend tracking provide data-based information for approval. Not only can this information serve as a further basis for decision-making by the regulatory authority regarding early warnings, but it can also reduce some avoidable adverse reactions. With continuous addition of data, dynamic population pharmaceutical quality is meaningful for emergencies and decision-making regarding drug regulation. Graphical abstract Image 1 Highlights • Critical evaluation attributes (CEAs) is defined and to characterize the process indicators based on the QbD.• An improved SPC method was demonstrated to quantitative analyze the process indicators.• A risk assess rule based on population parameters was developed for evaluating different produce processes of the same drug.• An interaction test for CEAs was performed to find the representation of the population pharmaceutical quality.• The strategy can be applied to generic drugs consistency evaluation, process risk assessment and quality trend tracking.• The strategy can provide data-based information for approval.

Project description:BackgroundNational and international primary CVD risk screening guidelines focus on using total CVD risk scores. Recently, we developed a non-laboratory-based CVD risk score (inputs: age, sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, treatment of hypertension, body-mass index), which can assess risk faster and at lower costs compared to laboratory-based scores (inputs include cholesterol values). We aimed to assess the exchangeability of the non-laboratory-based risk score to four commonly used laboratory-based scores (Framingham CVD [2008, 1991 versions], and Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation [SCORE] for low and high risk settings) in an external validation population.Methods and findingsAnalyses were based on individual-level, score-specific rankings of risk for adults in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) aged 25-74 years, without history of CVD or cancer (n?=?5,999). Risk characterization agreement was based on overlap in dichotomous risk characterization (thresholds of 10-year risk >10-20%) and Spearman rank correlation. Risk discrimination was assessed using receiver operator characteristic curve analysis (10-year CVD death outcome). Risk characterization agreement ranged from 91.9-95.7% and 94.2-95.1% with Spearman correlation ranges of 0.957-0.980 and 0.946-0.970 for men and women, respectively. In men, c-statistics for the non-laboratory-based, Framingham (2008, 1991), and SCORE (high, low) functions were 0.782, 0.776, 0.781, 0.785, and 0.785, with p-values for differences relative to the non-laboratory-based score of 0.44, 0.89, 0.68 and 0.65, respectively. In women, the corresponding c-statistics were 0.809, 0.834, 0.821, 0.792, and 0.792, with corresponding p-values of 0.04, 0.34, 0.11 and 0.09, respectively.ConclusionsEvery score discriminated risk of CVD death well, and there was high agreement in risk characterization between non-laboratory-based and laboratory-based risk scores, which suggests that the non-laboratory-based score can be a useful proxy for Framingham or SCORE functions in resource-limited settings. Future external validation studies can assess whether the sex-specific risk discrimination results hold in other populations.

Dataset Information

Multimodality Strategy for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: Performance in 2 Population-Based Cohorts.

Publications

Multimodality Strategy for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: Performance in 2 Population-Based Cohorts.

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