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Discrete Barker Frailty and Warped Mortality Dynamics at Older Ages.

ABSTRACT: We develop a discrete variant of a general model for adult mortality influenced by the delayed impact of early conditions on adult health and mortality. The discrete variant of the model builds on an intuitively appealing interpretation of conditions that induce delayed effects and is an extension of the discrete form of the standard frailty model with distinct implications. We show that introducing delayed effects is equivalent to perturbing adult mortality patterns with a particular class of time-/age-varying frailty. We emphasize two main results. First, populations with delayed effects could experience unchanging or increasing adult mortality even when background mortality has been declining for long periods of time. Although this phenomenon also occurs in a regime with standard frailty, the distortions can be more severe under a regime with Barker frailty. As a consequence, conventional interpretations of the observed rates of adult mortality decline in societies that experience Barker frailty may be inappropriate. Second, the observed rate of senescence (slope of adult mortality rates) in populations with delayed effects could increase, decrease, or remain steady over time and across adult ages even though the rate of senescence of the background age pattern of mortality is time- and age-invariant. This second result implies that standard interpretations of empirical estimates of the slope of adult mortality rates in populations with delayed effects may be misleading because they can reflect mechanisms other than those inducing senescence as conventionally understood in the literature.

SUBMITTER: Palloni A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5490246 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Discrete Barker Frailty and Warped Mortality Dynamics at Older Ages.

Palloni Alberto A Beltrán-Sánchez Hiram H

Demography 20170401 2

We develop a discrete variant of a general model for adult mortality influenced by the delayed impact of early conditions on adult health and mortality. The discrete variant of the model builds on an intuitively appealing interpretation of conditions that induce delayed effects and is an extension of the discrete form of the standard frailty model with distinct implications. We show that introducing delayed effects is equivalent to perturbing adult mortality patterns with a particular class of t ...[more]

PMID: 28188448

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:To test the hypothesis that non-frail older men with poorer sleep at baseline are at increased risk of frailty and death at follow-up. METHODS:In this prospective cohort study, subjective (questionnaires) and objective sleep parameters (actigraphy, in-home overnight polysomnography) were measured at baseline in 2505 non-frail men aged ?67years. Repeat frailty status assessment performed an average of 3.4 years later; vital status assessed every four months. Sleep parameters expressed as dichotomized predictors using clinical cut-points. Status at follow-up exam classified as robust, intermediate (pre-frail) stage, frail, or died in interim. RESULTS:None of the sleep disturbances were associated with the odds of being intermediate/frail/dead (vs. robust) at follow-up. Poor subjective sleep quality (multivariable odds ratio [MOR] 1.26, 95% CI 1.01-1.58), greater nighttime wakefulness (MOR 1.31, 95% CI 1.04-1.66), and greater nocturnal hypoxemia (MOR 1.47, 95% CI 1.02-2.10) were associated with a higher odds of frailty/death at follow-up (vs. robust/intermediate). Excessive daytime sleepiness (MOR 1.60, 95% CI 1.03-2.47), greater nighttime wakefulness (MOR 1.57, 95% CI 1.12-2.20), severe sleep apnea (MOR 1.74, 95% CI 1.04-2.89), and nocturnal hypoxemia (MOR 2.28, 95% CI 1.45-3.58) were associated with higher odds of death (vs. robust/intermediate/frail at follow-up). The association between poor sleep efficiency and mortality nearly reached significance (MOR 1.48, 95% CI 0.99-2.22). Short sleep duration and prolonged sleep latency were not associated with frailty/death or death at follow-up. CONCLUSIONS:Among non-frail older men, poor subjective sleep quality, greater nighttime wakefulness, and greater nocturnal hypoxemia were independently associated with higher odds of frailty or death at follow-up, while excessive daytime sleepiness, greater nighttime wakefulness, severe sleep apnea and greater nocturnal hypoxemia were independently associated with an increased risk of mortality.

Project description:Background and objectivesIt is widely recognized that survey satisficing, inattentive, or careless responding in questionnaires reduce the quality of self-report data. In this study, we propose that such low-quality responding (LQR) can carry substantive meaning at older ages. Completing questionnaires is a cognitively demanding task and LQR among older adults may reflect early signals of cognitive deficits and pathological aging. We hypothesized that older people displaying greater LQR would show faster cognitive decline and greater mortality risk.Research design and methodsWe analyzed data from 9, 288 adults 65 years or older in the Health and Retirement Study. Indicators of LQR were derived from participants' response patterns in 102 psychosocial questionnaire items administered in 2006-2008. Latent growth models examined whether LQR predicted initial status and change in cognitive functioning, assessed with the modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status, over the subsequent 10 years. Discrete-time survival models examined whether LQR was associated with mortality risk over the 10 years. We also examined evidence for indirect (mediated) effects in which LQR predicts mortality via cognitive trajectories.ResultsAfter adjusting for age, gender, race, marital status, education, health conditions, smoking status, physical activity, and depressive symptoms, greater LQR was cross-sectionally associated with poorer cognitive functioning, and prospectively associated with faster cognitive decline over the follow-up period. Furthermore, greater LQR was associated with increased mortality risk during follow-up, and this effect was partially accounted for by the associations between LQR and cognitive functioning.Discussion and implicationsSelf-report questionnaires are not formally designed as cognitive tasks, but this study shows that LQR indicators derived from self-report measures provide objective, performance-based information about individuals' cognitive functioning and survival. Self-report surveys are ubiquitous in social science, and indicators of LQR may be of broad relevance as predictors of cognitive and health trajectories in older people.

Dataset Information

Discrete Barker Frailty and Warped Mortality Dynamics at Older Ages.

Publications

Discrete Barker Frailty and Warped Mortality Dynamics at Older Ages.

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