Dataset Information

Risk score model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in treatment-naive patients receiving oral antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B.

ABSTRACT:

Background/aims

This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in treatment-naïve patients receiving oral antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

Methods

We investigated 2,061 Korean treatment-naïve patients with CHB treated with entecavir as an initial therapy. A risk score model for HCC development was developed based on multivariable Cox regression model in a single center (n=990) and was validated using the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) in three other centers (n=1,071). The difference of HCC development among risk groups (low, intermediate, and high) categorized by risk score was also investigated.

Results

The cumulative incidence rates of HCC at 5 years were 11.2% and 8.9% in the testing and validation cohorts, respectively. HCC-Risk Estimating Score in CHB patients Under Entecavir (HCC-RESCUE) is formulated as (age+15×gender [female=0 / male=1]+23×cirrhosis [absence=0 / presence=1]). The AUROCs at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years were 0.82, 0.81, and 0.81, respectively, in the validation cohort. A significant difference of HCC development in each risk group was determined by the 5-year HCC risk score in the validation cohort (low risk group, 2.1%; intermediate risk group, 9.3%; high risk group, 41.2%, p<0.001).

Conclusions

The study presents a new risk score model with a good ability to predict HCC development and determine high risk patients for HCC development consisting of readily available clinical factors in treatment-naïve CHB patients receiving entecavir.

SUBMITTER: Sohn W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5497662 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Risk score model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in treatment-naïve patients receiving oral antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B.

Sohn Won W Cho Ju-Yeon JY Kim Ji Hoon JH Lee Jung Il JI Kim Hyung Joon HJ Woo Min-Ah MA Jung Sin-Ho SH Paik Yong-Han YH

Clinical and molecular hepatology 20170516 2

<h4>Background/aims</h4>This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in treatment-naïve patients receiving oral antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B (CHB).<h4>Methods</h4>We investigated 2,061 Korean treatment-naïve patients with CHB treated with entecavir as an initial therapy. A risk score model for HCC development was developed based on multivariable Cox regression model in a single center (n=990) and was validat ...[more]

PMID: 28506056

Similar Datasets

Project description:BACKGROUND:Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection poses a significant burden to public health worldwide. Most cases are clinically silent until late in the disease course. The main goal of current therapy is to improve survival and quality of life by preventing disease progression to cirrhosis and liver failure, and consequently hepatocellular carcinoma development. The objective of this review is to provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of the effectiveness of treatment options. METHODS:We performed a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature for randomized controlled trials involving treatment-naïve CHB adult population who received antiviral therapy. The endpoints were virologic response (VR), normalization of alanine aminotransferase (ALT norm), HBeAg loss, HBeAg seroconversion, and HBsAg loss for the HBeAg-positive population; and VR and ALT norm for the HBeAg-negative population. Network meta-analysis (NMA) was performed to synthesize evidence on the efficacy of treatment. RESULTS:Forty-two publications were selected. Twenty-three evaluated HBeAg-positive population, 13 evaluated HBeAg-negative population, and six evaluated both. We applied NMA to the efficacy outcomes of the two populations separately. Treatment strategies were ranked by the probability of achieving outcomes, and pairwise comparisons calculated from NMA were reported in odds ratios (OR). For HBeAg-positive population, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) were the best for VR; OR vs adefovir = 14.29, 95% CI 7.69-25 and 12.5, 95% CI 4.35-33.33 respectively. TAF was the best for achieving ALT norm (OR vs placebo = 12.5, 95% CI 4.55-33.33), HBeAg loss, and seroconversion (OR vs entecavir/TDF combination = 3.03, 95% CI 1.04-8.84 and 3.33, 95% CI 1.16-10 respectively). In the HBeAg-negative population, TDF and TAF were the best for VR (OR vs adefovir = 9.79, 95% CI 2.38-42.7 and 11.71, 95% CI 1.03-150.48 respectively). Telbivudine and TAF were the best for ALT norm. Certain nucleos(t)ide combinations also had high probability of achieving positive outcomes. CONCLUSIONS:Our results are consonant with current clinical guidelines and other evidence reviews. For both HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative populations, TDF and TAF are the most effective agents for virologic suppression, and TAF is effective across all outcomes.