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A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

ABSTRACT: Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.

SUBMITTER: Nicol S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5501652 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

Nicol Sam S Nicol Sam S Chadès Iadine I

PloS one 20170707 7

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparati ...[more]

PMID: 28686651

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Infrastructure spending, especially in the transport sector, is expected to increase rapidly in Vietnam. This boost in transportation investment impacts health. Environmental impact assessments (EIAs) are essential tools for decision-making to reduce and mitigate anticipated impacts of development projects, and integration of health assessment as an essential part of the EIA process has been regulated in many high-income countries. There is, however, limited knowledge about how health is evaluated in these environmental assessments in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as Vietnam. METHODS:We did an analysis of EIAs of four major transport projects in Vietnam, applying a six-step coding framework previously used to investigate EIAs in the Australian context. RESULTS:We found that health was inadequately considered in all four EIAs. There was no direct health assessment within the four EIAs due to the lack of formal requirements from either Government or the financing agency, the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Health issues were often identified as risks posed by the projects within the assessment of impacts on environmental conditions. A broader consideration of health was limited. When social outcomes of the projects were present in EIAs, they were often mentioned once without any detailed assessment or linking to health. There was no evidence linking health benefits and shifts towards active travel with the construction of two metro rail projects. Mitigation measures offered in all four EIAs were found to be generic and insubstantial. CONCLUSION:The health assessments in the EIAs of four transport projects in Vietnam were significantly less detailed than those in Australia, mainly due to the lack of legislative requirements. The lack of health content indicates the need for involvement of health experts in the environmental assessment process, as well as requirements for the health assessment to be integrated in EIA. Our findings suggest there is the need to build capacity both within and outside of government to fully consider the health impacts of infrastructure in EIA practice.

Project description:When successful, the operation of local and international networks of crop seed distribution or "seed systems" ensures farmer access to seed and impacts rural livelihoods and food security. Farmers are both consumers and producers in seed systems and benefit from access to global markets. However, phytosanitary measures and seed purity tests are also needed to maintain seed quality and prevent the spread of costly weeds, pests and diseases, in some countries regulatory controls have been in place since the 1800s. Nevertheless, seed contaminants are internationally implicated in between 7% and 37% of the invasive plant species and many of the agricultural pests and diseases. We assess biosecurity risk across international seed trade networks of forage crops using models of contaminant spread that integrate network connectivity and trade volume. To stochastically model hypothetical contaminants through global seed trade networks, realistic dispersal probabilities were estimated from quarantine weed seed detections and incursions from border security interception data in New Zealand. For our test case we use contaminants linked to the global trade of ryegrass and clover seed. Between 2014 and 2018 only four quarantine weed species (222 species and several genera are on the quarantine schedule) warranting risk mitigation were detected at the border. Quarantine weeds were rare considering that average import volumes were over 190 tonnes for ryegrass and clover, but 105 unregulated contaminant species were allowed in. Ryegrass and clover seed imports each led to one post-border weed incursion response over 20 years. Trade reports revealed complex global seed trade networks spanning >134 (ryegrass) and >110 (clover) countries. Simulations showed contaminants could disperse to as many as 50 (clover) or 80 (ryegrass) countries within 10 time-steps. Risk assessed via network models differed 18% (ryegrass) or 48% (clover) of the time compared to risk assessed on trade volumes. We conclude that biosecurity risk is driven by network position, the number of trading connections and trade volume. Risk mitigation measures could involve the use of more comprehensive lists of regulated species, comprehensive inspection protocols, or the addition of field surveillance at farms where seed is planted.

Project description:ImportanceLarge population-based studies investigating the risks of overall and specific cancers among patients with hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) are limited.ObjectiveTo assess the overall and specific cancer risks in patients with HS compared with the risks in patients without HS in the Republic of Korea.Design, setting, and participantsA nationwide population-based cohort study, using the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service database was conducted over a 2-year period from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2008. Individuals in the control group who were never diagnosed with HS or cancer during the washout period were randomly extracted and matched by age, sex, index year, and insurance type at a case-control ratio of 1:8, and patients with newly diagnosed HS between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2017, were included. Follow-up data on incident cancer from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2018, were included.Main outcomes and measuresThe overall and specific cancer incidence rates were calculated per 100 000 person-years in patients with HS and in the matched control cohort. The risk for cancers was assessed by multivariable Cox regression models in patients with HS compared with the matched control cohort.ResultsIn total, 22 468 patients with HS and 179 734 matched controls were included in the study. The mean (SD) age was 33.63 (17.61) years and 63.7% of the participants in both groups were male. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of overall cancer in patients with HS was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.15-1.42). Patients with HS had significantly higher risk for Hodgkin lymphoma (aHR, 5.08; 95% CI, 1.21-21.36), oral cavity and pharyngeal cancer (aHR, 3.10; 95% CI, 1.60-6.02), central nervous system cancer (aHR, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.22-4.70), nonmelanoma skin cancer (HR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.12-3.79), prostate cancer (aHR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.30-3.24), and colorectal cancer (aHR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.09-1.93).Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, HS appeared to be associated with a significantly increased risk of overall cancer as well as several specific cancers.

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A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

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A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

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