Dataset Information

Novel inference models for estimation of abundance, survivorship and recruitment in mosquito populations using mark-release-recapture data.

ABSTRACT: Experiments involving mosquito mark-release-recapture (MRR) design are helpful to determine abundance, survival and even recruitment of mosquito populations in the field. Obstacles in mosquito MRR protocols include marking limitations due to small individual size, short lifespan, low efficiency in capturing devices such as traps, and individual removal upon capture. These limitations usually make MRR analysis restricted to only abundance estimation or a combination of abundance and survivorship, and often generate a great degree of uncertainty about the estimations.We present a set of Bayesian biodemographic models designed to fit data from most common mosquito recapture experiments. Using both field data and simulations, we consider model features such as capture efficiency, survival rates, removal of individuals due to capturing, and collection of pupae. These models permit estimation of abundance, survivorship of both marked and unmarked mosquitoes, if different, and recruitment rate. We analyze the accuracy of estimates by varying the number of released individuals, abundance, survivorship, and capture efficiency in multiple simulations. These methods can stand capture efficiencies as low as usually reported but their accuracy depends on the number of released mosquitoes, abundance and survivorship. We also show that gathering pupal counts allows estimating differences in survivorship between released mosquitoes and the unmarked population.These models are important both to reduce uncertainty in evaluating MMR experiments and also to help planning future MRR studies.

SUBMITTER: Villela DAM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5501687 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Novel inference models for estimation of abundance, survivorship and recruitment in mosquito populations using mark-release-recapture data.

Villela Daniel Antunes Maciel DAM Garcia Gabriela de Azambuja GA Maciel-de-Freitas Rafael R

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20170626 6

<h4>Background</h4>Experiments involving mosquito mark-release-recapture (MRR) design are helpful to determine abundance, survival and even recruitment of mosquito populations in the field. Obstacles in mosquito MRR protocols include marking limitations due to small individual size, short lifespan, low efficiency in capturing devices such as traps, and individual removal upon capture. These limitations usually make MRR analysis restricted to only abundance estimation or a combination of abundanc ...[more]

PMID: 28650962

Similar Datasets

Project description:Accurate estimates of population abundance are a critical component of species conservation efforts in order to monitor the potential recovery of populations. Capture-mark-recapture (CMR) is a widely used approach to estimate population abundance, yet social species moving in groups violate the assumption of CMR approaches that all individuals in the population are detected independently. We developed a closed CMR model that addresses an important characteristic of group-living species-that individual-detection probability typically is conditional on group detection. Henceforth termed the Two-Step model, this approach first estimates group-detection probability and then-conditional on group detection-estimates individual-detection probability for individuals within detected groups. Overall abundance is estimated assuming that undetected groups have the same average group size as detected groups. We compared the performance of this Two-Step CMR model to a conventional (One-Step) closed CMR model that ignored group structure. We assessed model sensitivity to variation in both group- and individual-detection probability. Both models returned overall unbiased estimates of abundance, but the One-Step model returned deceptively narrow Bayesian confidence intervals (BCI) that failed to encompass the correct population abundance an average 52% of the time. Contrary, under the Two-Step model, CI coverage was on average 96%. Both models had similar root mean squared errors (RMSE), except for scenarios with low group detection probability, where the Two-Step model had much lower RMSE. For illustration with a real data set, we applied the Two-Step and regular model to non-invasive genetic capture-recapture data of mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei). As with simulations, abundance estimates under both models were similar, but the Two-Step model estimate had a wider confidence interval. Results support using the Two-Step model for species living in constant groups, particularly when group detection probability is low, to reduce risk of bias and adequately portray uncertainty in abundance estimates. Important sources of variation in detection need to be incorporated into the Two-Step model when applying it to field data.

Project description:BackgroundPathogen transmission by mosquitos is known to be highly sensitive to mosquito bionomic parameters. Mosquito mark-release-recapture (MMRR) experiments are a standard method for estimating such parameters including dispersal, population size and density, survival, blood feeding frequency and blood meal host preferences.MethodsWe assembled a comprehensive database describing adult female MMRR experiments. Bibliographic searches were used to build a digital library of MMRR studies and selected data describing the reported outcomes were extracted.ResultsThe resulting database contained 774 unique adult female MMRR experiments involving 58 vector mosquito species from the three main genera of importance to human health: Aedes, Anopheles and Culex. Crude examination of these data revealed patterns associated with geography as well as mosquito genus, consistent with bionomics varying by species-specific life history and ecological context. Recapture success varied considerably and was significantly different amongst genera, with 8, 4 and 1% of adult females recaptured for Aedes, Anopheles and Culex species, respectively. A large proportion of experiments (59%) investigated dispersal and survival and many allowed disaggregation of the release and recapture data. Geographic coverage was limited to just 143 localities around the world.ConclusionsThis MMRR database is a substantial contribution to the compilation of global data that can be used to better inform basic research and public health interventions, to identify and fill knowledge gaps and to enrich theory and evidence-based ecological and epidemiological studies of mosquito vectors, pathogen transmission and disease prevention. The database revealed limited geographic coverage and a relative scarcity of information for vector species of substantial public health relevance. It represents, however, a wealth of entomological information not previously compiled and of particular interest for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission models.

Project description:Abundance estimation of carnivore populations is difficult and has prompted the use of non-invasive detection methods, such as remotely-triggered cameras, to collect data. To analyze photo data, studies focusing on carnivores with unique pelage patterns have utilized a mark-recapture framework and studies of carnivores without unique pelage patterns have used a mark-resight framework. We compared mark-resight and mark-recapture estimation methods to estimate bobcat (Lynx rufus) population sizes, which motivated the development of a new "hybrid" mark-resight model as an alternative to traditional methods. We deployed a sampling grid of 30 cameras throughout the urban southern California study area. Additionally, we physically captured and marked a subset of the bobcat population with GPS telemetry collars. Since we could identify individual bobcats with photos of unique pelage patterns and a subset of the population was physically marked, we were able to use traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight methods, as well as the new "hybrid" mark-resight model we developed to estimate bobcat abundance. We recorded 109 bobcat photos during 4,669 camera nights and physically marked 27 bobcats with GPS telemetry collars. Abundance estimates produced by the traditional mark-recapture, traditional mark-resight, and "hybrid" mark-resight methods were similar, however precision differed depending on the models used. Traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight estimates were relatively imprecise with percent confidence interval lengths exceeding 100% of point estimates. Hybrid mark-resight models produced better precision with percent confidence intervals not exceeding 57%. The increased precision of the hybrid mark-resight method stems from utilizing the complete encounter histories of physically marked individuals (including those never detected by a camera trap) and the encounter histories of naturally marked individuals detected at camera traps. This new estimator may be particularly useful for estimating abundance of uniquely identifiable species that are difficult to sample using camera traps alone.

Project description:BackgroundThe sterile insect technique (SIT), which involves area-wide inundative releases of sterile insects to suppress the reproduction of a target species, has proven to be an effective pest control method. The technique demands the continuous release of sterilized insects in quantities that ensure a high sterile male:wild male ratio for the suppression of the wild population over succeeding generations.MethodsFor these releases, it is important to determine several ecological and biological population parameters, including the longevity of the released males in the field, the dispersal of the released males and the wild pest population size. The Lee County Mosquito Control District initiated a study in a 47-ha portion of Captiva Island (Florida, USA), an island with a total area of 230 ha, to define biological SIT parameters for Aedes aegypti (L.), an invasive disease-vectoring mosquito known to be difficult to control due to a combination of daytime biting activity, use of cryptic breeding habitats that are difficult to target with conventional night-time ultra-low volume methods, and emerging resistance to commonly used insecticides. Another goal was to assess patterns of dispersal and survival for laboratory-reared sterile Ae. aegypti males released over time in the pilot site. These parameters will be used to evaluate the efficacy of a SIT suppression program for Ae. aegypti on Captiva Island.ResultsOver the course of seven mark-release-recapture studies using single- and multiple-point releases, 190,504 sterile marked males were released, for which the recapture rate was 1.5% over a mean period of 12 days. The mean distance traveled by sterile males of the local strain of Ae. aegypti that has colonized Captiva Island was 201.7 m from the release point, with an observed maximum traveled distance of 404.5 m. The released sterile mosquitoes had a probability of daily survival of 0.67 and an average life expectancy of ~ 2.46 days.ConclusionsThese data together with the population size estimate and sterile:wild ratio provide a solid basis for planning the SIT operational phase which is aimed at mosquito population suppression.

Dataset Information

Novel inference models for estimation of abundance, survivorship and recruitment in mosquito populations using mark-release-recapture data.

Publications

Novel inference models for estimation of abundance, survivorship and recruitment in mosquito populations using mark-release-recapture data.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets