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Potential risk of re-emergence of urban transmission of Yellow Fever virus in Brazil facilitated by competent Aedes populations.

ABSTRACT: Yellow fever virus (YFV) causing a deadly viral disease is transmitted by the bite of infected mosquitoes. In Brazil, YFV is restricted to a forest cycle maintained between non-human primates and forest-canopy mosquitoes, where humans can be tangentially infected. Since late 2016, a growing number of human cases have been reported in Southeastern Brazil at the gates of the most populated areas of South America, the Atlantic coast, with Rio de Janeiro state hosting nearly 16 million people. We showed that the anthropophilic mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus as well as the YFV-enzootic mosquitoes Haemagogus leucocelaenus and Sabethes albiprivus from the YFV-free region of the Atlantic coast were highly susceptible to American and African YFV strains. Therefore, the risk of reemergence of urban YFV epidemics in South America is major with a virus introduced either from a forest cycle or by a traveler returning from the YFV-endemic region of Africa.

SUBMITTER: Couto-Lima D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5501812 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Potential risk of re-emergence of urban transmission of Yellow Fever virus in Brazil facilitated by competent Aedes populations.

Couto-Lima Dinair D Madec Yoann Y Bersot Maria Ignez MI Campos Stephanie Silva SS Motta Monique de Albuquerque MA Santos Flávia Barreto Dos FBD Vazeille Marie M Vasconcelos Pedro Fernando da Costa PFDC Lourenço-de-Oliveira Ricardo R Failloux Anna-Bella AB

Scientific reports 20170707 1

Yellow fever virus (YFV) causing a deadly viral disease is transmitted by the bite of infected mosquitoes. In Brazil, YFV is restricted to a forest cycle maintained between non-human primates and forest-canopy mosquitoes, where humans can be tangentially infected. Since late 2016, a growing number of human cases have been reported in Southeastern Brazil at the gates of the most populated areas of South America, the Atlantic coast, with Rio de Janeiro state hosting nearly 16 million people. We sh ...[more]

PMID: 28687779

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Project description:BackgroundYellow fever virus is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that persists in an enzoonotic cycle in non-human primates (NHPs) in Brazil, causing disease in humans through spillover events. Yellow fever (YF) re-emerged in the early 2000s, spreading from the Amazon River basin towards the previously considered low-risk, southeastern region of the country. Previous methods mapping YF spillover risk do not incorporate the temporal dynamics and ecological context of the disease, and are therefore unable to predict seasonality in spatial risk across Brazil. We present the results of a bagged logistic regression predicting the propensity for YF spillover per municipality (administrative sub-district) in Brazil from environmental and demographic covariates aggregated by month. Ecological context was incorporated by creating National and Regional models of spillover dynamics, where the Regional model consisted of two separate models determined by the regions' NHP reservoir species richness (high vs low).ResultsOf the 5560 municipalities, 82 reported YF cases from 2001 to 2013. Model accuracy was high for the National and low reservoir richness (LRR) models (AUC = 0.80), while the high reservoir richness (HRR) model accuracy was lower (AUC = 0.63). The National model predicted consistently high spillover risk in the Amazon, while the Regional model predicted strong seasonality in spillover risk. Within the Regional model, seasonality of spillover risk in the HRR region was asynchronous to the LRR region. However, the observed seasonality of spillover risk in the LRR Regional model mirrored the national model predictions.ConclusionsThe predicted risk of YF spillover varies with space and time. Seasonal trends differ between regions indicating, at times, spillover risk can be higher in the urban coastal regions than the Amazon River basin which is counterintuitive based on current YF risk maps. Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of YF spillover risk could better inform allocation of public health services.

Dataset Information

Potential risk of re-emergence of urban transmission of Yellow Fever virus in Brazil facilitated by competent Aedes populations.

Publications

Potential risk of re-emergence of urban transmission of Yellow Fever virus in Brazil facilitated by competent Aedes populations.

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