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Electrocardiographic Predictors of Incident Atrial Fibrillation.

ABSTRACT: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is likely secondary to multiple different pathophysiological mechanisms that are increasingly but incompletely understood. Motivated by the hypothesis that 3 previously described electrocardiographic predictors of AF identify distinct AF mechanisms, we sought to determine if these electrocardiographic findings independently predict incident disease. Among Cardiovascular Health Study participants without prevalent AF, we determined whether left anterior fascicular block (LAFB), a prolonged QTC, and atrial premature complexes (APCs) each predicted AF after adjusting for each other. We then calculated the attributable risk in the exposed for each electrocardiographic marker. LAFB and QTC intervals were assessed on baseline 12-lead electrocardiogram (n = 4,696). APC count was determined using 24-hour Holter recordings obtained in a random subsample (n = 1,234). After adjusting for potential confounders and each electrocardiographic marker, LAFB (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1 to 3.9, p = 0.023), a prolonged QTC (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4 to 4.3, p = 0.002), and every doubling of APC count (HR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.3, p <0.001) each remained independently predictive of incident AF. The attributable risk of AF in the exposed was 35% (95% CI 13% to 52%) for LAFB, 25% (95% CI 0.6% to 44%) for a prolonged QTC, and 34% (95% CI 26% to 42%) for APCs. In conclusion, in a community-based cohort, 3 previously established electrocardiogram-derived AF predictors were each independently associated with incident AF, suggesting that they may represent distinct mechanisms underlying the disease.

SUBMITTER: Nguyen KT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5503745 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Electrocardiographic Predictors of Incident Atrial Fibrillation.

Nguyen Kaylin T KT Vittinghoff Eric E Dewland Thomas A TA Mandyam Mala C MC Stein Phyllis K PK Soliman Elsayed Z EZ Heckbert Susan R SR Marcus Gregory M GM

The American journal of cardiology 20160614 5

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is likely secondary to multiple different pathophysiological mechanisms that are increasingly but incompletely understood. Motivated by the hypothesis that 3 previously described electrocardiographic predictors of AF identify distinct AF mechanisms, we sought to determine if these electrocardiographic findings independently predict incident disease. Among Cardiovascular Health Study participants without prevalent AF, we determined whether left anterior fascicular block ( ...[more]

PMID: 27448684

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Project description:Detection of atrial fibrillation after ischemic stroke is challenging due to its paroxysmal nature. We aimed to assess predictors of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation using non-invasive surface ECG and transthoracic echocardiography to select candidates for atrial fibrillation screening.Ischemic stroke patients without documented atrial fibrillation (n?=?110, 67?±?10 years, 40 female) and a control group of age- and gender-matched patients with history of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation prior to stroke (n?=?55, 67?±?10 years, 19 female) comprised the study sample. Using non-invasive ECG monitoring for three weeks, short episodes of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation were detected in 24 of 110 patients (22 %). The standard 12-lead ECG with sinus rhythm at stroke onset was digitally processed and analyzed. Transthoracic echocardiography data were reviewed for these patients.Atrial fibrillation history was independently associated with P terminal force in lead V 1?>?40 mm*ms (OR 4.04 95 % CI 1.34-12.14, p?=?0.013) and left atrial volume index (OR 1.08 95 % CI 1.03-1.13, p?=?0.002; for LAVI?>?40 mL/m2 OR 6.40 95 % CL 1.47-27.91, p?=?0.013). Among patients without atrial fibrillation history, no ECG characteristics were predictive of atrial fibrillation detected after stroke. Left atrial volume index remained an independent predictor of atrial fibrillation detected after stroke (OR 1.09 95 % CI 1.02-1.16, p?=?0.017). A cutoff of <40 mL/m2 had an 84 % negative predictive value for ruling out atrial fibrillation on ambulatory monitoring with a sensitivity of 50 % and a specificity of 86 %.In a post hoc analysis, left atrial dilatation assessed by left atrial volume index independently predicted atrial fibrillation after stroke in patients without prior atrial fibrillation history, while the other clinical or ECG markers were not predictive of atrial fibrillation detected early after ischemic stroke.This study is a post hoc analysis from the prospective case-control study registered in December 2011, ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01325545 .

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Electrocardiographic Predictors of Incident Atrial Fibrillation.

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Electrocardiographic Predictors of Incident Atrial Fibrillation.

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