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Predicting in-hospital death during acute presentation with pulmonary embolism to facilitate early discharge and outpatient management.

ABSTRACT: Pulmonary embolism continues to be a significant cause of death. The aim was to derive and validate a risk prediction model for in-hospital death after acute pulmonary embolism to identify low risk patients suitable for outpatient management.A confirmed acute pulmonary embolism database of 1,426 consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary-center (2000-2012) was analyzed, with odd and even years as derivation and validation cohorts respectively. Risk stratification for in-hospital death was performed using multivariable logistic-regression modelling. Models were compared using receiver-operating characteristic-curve and decision curve analyses.In-hospital mortality was 3.6% in the derivation cohort (n = 693). Adding day-1 sodium and bicarbonate to simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) significantly increased the C-statistic for predicting in-hospital death (0.71 to 0.86, P = 0.001). The validation cohort yielded similar results (n = 733, C-statistic 0.85). The new model was associated with a net reclassification improvement of 0.613, and an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.067. The new model also increased the C-statistic for predicting 30-day mortality compared to sPESI alone (0.74 to 0.83, P = 0.002). Decision curve analysis demonstrated superior clinical benefit with the use of the new model to guide admission for pulmonary embolism, resulting in 43 fewer admissions per 100 presentations based on a risk threshold for admission of 2%.A risk model incorporating sodium, bicarbonate, and the sPESI provides accurate risk prediction of acute in-hospital mortality after pulmonary embolism. Our novel model identifies patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk and who may be suitable for outpatient management.

SUBMITTER: Lau JK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5509112 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting in-hospital death during acute presentation with pulmonary embolism to facilitate early discharge and outpatient management.

Lau Jerrett K JK Chow Vincent V Brown Alex A Kritharides Leonard L Ng Austin C C ACC

PloS one 20170713 7

<h4>Background</h4>Pulmonary embolism continues to be a significant cause of death. The aim was to derive and validate a risk prediction model for in-hospital death after acute pulmonary embolism to identify low risk patients suitable for outpatient management.<h4>Methods</h4>A confirmed acute pulmonary embolism database of 1,426 consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary-center (2000-2012) was analyzed, with odd and even years as derivation and validation cohorts respectively. Risk stratificat ...[more]

PMID: 28704383

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Project description:BackgroundMost patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) spend 5-7 days in hospital even though only 4.5% will develop serious complications during this time. In particular, the group of patients with incidentally diagnosed PE (i-PE) includes many patients with low risk features potentially ideal for outpatient management; however the evidence for their optimal management is lacking hence relative practices may vary considerably. We describe the development process, components, links and function of a nurse-led service for the management of patients with i-PE, developed in accordance to the UK Medical Research Council complex intervention guidance.MethodsPhase 0 (Theoretical underpinning): The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) was selected for patient risk assessment and the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) guideline for the management of PE in cancer patients (2007) was selected as quality measure. Historical registry and audit data from our centre regarding i-PE incidence and management for the period between 2006 and 2009 illustrating the then current practices were reviewed. Phase 1 (Modelling): Modelling of the pathway included the following: a) Identification of training needs, planning and implementation of training schemes and development of transferable competencies and training materials. b) Mapping patient pathways and flow and c) Production of key documentation and Standard Operating Procedures for the delivery of the service.ResultsPhase 2 (Implementation and testing of the intervention): During the initial 12 months of implementation, remedial action was taken to address identified deficiencies regarding patient referral to the pathway, compliance with treatment protocol, patient follow up, selection challenges from the use of PESI in cancer patients and challenges regarding the "first-pass" identification of i-PE.ConclusionWe have developed and piloted a complex intervention to manage cancer patients with incidental PE in an outpatient setting. Adherence to evidence- based care, improvement of communication between professionals and patients, and improved quality of data is demonstrated.

Dataset Information

Predicting in-hospital death during acute presentation with pulmonary embolism to facilitate early discharge and outpatient management.

Publications

Predicting in-hospital death during acute presentation with pulmonary embolism to facilitate early discharge and outpatient management.

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