Spatial patterns of dengue cases in Brazil.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Antonio FJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5513438 | biostudies-literature | 2017
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Spatial patterns of dengue cases in Brazil.
Antonio Fernando Jose FJ Itami Andreia Silva AS de Picoli Sergio S Teixeira Jorge Juarez Vieira JJV Mendes Renio Dos Santos RDS
PloS one 20170717 7
Dengue infection plays a central role in our society, since it is the most prevalent vector-borne viral disease affecting humans. We statistically investigated patterns concerning the spatial spreading of dengue epidemics in Brazil, as well as their temporal evolution in all Brazilian municipalities for a period of 12 years. We showed that the distributions of cases in municipalities follow power laws persistent in time and that the infection scales linearly with the population of the municipali ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundDengue, a viral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, is an important public health concern throughout Thailand. Climate variables are potential predictors of dengue transmission. Associations between climate variables and dengue have usually been performed on large-scale first-level national administrative divisions, i.e. provinces. Here we analyze data on a finer spatial resolution in one province, which is often more relevant for effective disease control design. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of seasonal variations, monthly climate variability, and to identify local clusters of symptomatic disease at the sub-district level based on reported dengue cases.MethodsData on dengue cases were retrieved from the national communicable disease surveillance system in Thailand. Between 2006 and 2016, 15,167 cases were recorded in 199 sub-districts of Khon Kaen Province, northeastern Thailand. Descriptive analyses included demographic characteristics and temporal patterns of disease and climate variables. The association between monthly disease incidence and climate variations was analyzed at the sub-district level using Bayesian Poisson spatial regression. A hotspot analysis was used to assess the spatial patterns (clustered/dispersed/random) of dengue incidence.ResultsDengue was predominant in the 5-14 year-old age group (51.1%). However, over time, dengue incidence in the older age groups (> 15 years) gradually increased and was the most affected group in 2013. Dengue outbreaks coincide with the rainy season. In the spatial regression model, maximum temperature was associated with higher incidence. The hotspot analysis showed clustering of cases around the urbanized area of Khon Kaen city and in rural areas in the southwestern portion of the province.ConclusionsThere was an increase in the number of reported dengue cases in older age groups over the study period. Dengue incidence was highly seasonal and positively associated with maximum ambient temperature. However, climatic variables did not explain all the spatial variation of dengue in the province. Further analyses are needed to clarify the detailed effects of urbanization and other potential environmental risk factors. These results provide useful information for ongoing prediction modeling and developing of dengue early warning systems to guide vector control operations.
| S-EPMC6708185 | biostudies-literature