Spatio-temporal variations of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers in Zhejiang Province, China from 2005 to 2015.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Gu H
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5515934 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:Typhoid and paratyphoid fevers are common enteric diseases causing disability and death in China. Incidence data of typhoid and paratyphoid between 2004 and 2016 in China were analyzed descriptively to explore the epidemiological features such as age-specific and geographical distribution. Cumulative incidence of both fevers displayed significant decrease nationally, displaying a drop of 73.9% for typhoid and 86.6% for paratyphoid in 2016 compared to 2004. Cumulative incidence fell in all age subgroups and the 0-4 years-old children were the most susceptible ones in recent years. A cluster of three southwestern provinces (Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi) were the top high-incidence regions. Grey model GM (1,1) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model were employed to extract the long-term trends of the diseases. Annual cumulative incidence for typhoid and paratyphoid were formulated by GM (1,1) as [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] respectively. SARIMA (0,1,7) × (1,0,1)12 was selected among a collection of constructed models for high R2 and low errors. The predictive models for both fevers forecasted cumulative incidence to continue the slightly downward trend and maintain the cyclical seasonality in near future years. Such data-driven insights are informative and actionable for the prevention and control of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers as serious infectious diseases.
| S-EPMC7592733 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEfforts to quantify the global burden of enteric fever are valuable for understanding the health lost and the large-scale spatial distribution of the disease. We present the estimates of typhoid and paratyphoid fever burden from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, and the approach taken to produce them.MethodsFor this systematic analysis we broke down the relative contributions of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers by country, year, and age, and analysed trends in incidence and mortality. We modelled the combined incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers and split these total cases proportionally between typhoid and paratyphoid fevers using aetiological proportion models. We estimated deaths using vital registration data for countries with sufficiently high data completeness and using a natural history approach for other locations. We also estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for typhoid and paratyphoid fevers.FindingsGlobally, 14·3 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 12·5-16·3) cases of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers occurred in 2017, a 44·6% (42·2-47·0) decline from 25·9 million (22·0-29·9) in 1990. Age-standardised incidence rates declined by 54·9% (53·4-56·5), from 439·2 (376·7-507·7) per 100 000 person-years in 1990, to 197·8 (172·0-226·2) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. In 2017, Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi caused 76·3% (71·8-80·5) of cases of enteric fever. We estimated a global case fatality of 0·95% (0·54-1·53) in 2017, with higher case fatality estimates among children and older adults, and among those living in lower-income countries. We therefore estimated 135·9 thousand (76·9-218·9) deaths from typhoid and paratyphoid fever globally in 2017, a 41·0% (33·6-48·3) decline from 230·5 thousand (131·2-372·6) in 1990. Overall, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers were responsible for 9·8 million (5·6-15·8) DALYs in 2017, down 43·0% (35·5-50·6) from 17·2 million (9·9-27·8) DALYs in 1990.InterpretationDespite notable progress, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers remain major causes of disability and death, with billions of people likely to be exposed to the pathogens. Although improvements in water and sanitation remain essential, increased vaccine use (including with typhoid conjugate vaccines that are effective in infants and young children and protective for longer periods) and improved data and surveillance to inform vaccine rollout are likely to drive the greatest improvements in the global burden of the disease.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC6437314 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTyphoid and paratyphoid fever are endemic in Hongta District and their prevalence, at 113 per 100,000 individuals, remains the highest in China. However, the exact sources of the disease and its main epidemiological characteristics have not yet been clearly identified.Methods and findingsNumbers of typhoid and paratyphoid cases per day during the period 2006 to 2010 were obtained from the Chinese Center of Disease Control (CDC). A number of suspected disease determinants (or their proxies), were considered for use in spatiotemporal analysis: these included locations of discharge canals and food markets, as well as socio-economic and environmental factors. Results showed that disease prevalence was spatially clustered with clusters decreasing with increasing distance from markets and discharge canals. More than half of the spatial variance could be explained by a combination of economic conditions and availability of health facilities. Temporal prevalence fluctuations were positively associated with the monthly precipitation series. Polluted hospital and residential wastewater was being discharged into rainwater canals. Salmonella bacteria were found in canal water, on farmland and on vegetables sold in markets.ConclusionDISEASE TRANSMISSION IN HONGTA DISTRICT IS DRIVEN PRINCIPALLY BY TWO SPATIOTEMPORALLY COUPLED CYCLES: one involving seasonal variations and the other the distribution of polluted farmland (where vegetables are grown and sold in markets). Disease transmission was exacerbated by the fact that rainwater canals were being used for disposal of polluted waste from hospitals and residential areas. Social factors and their interactions also played a significant role in disease transmission.
| S-EPMC3597484 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We investigated 16 Japanese spotted fever cases that occurred in southeastern China during September-October 2015. Patients had fever, rash, eschar, and lymphadenopathy. We confirmed 9 diagnoses and obtained 2 isolates with high identity to Rickettsia japonica strain YH. R. japonica infection should be considered for febrile patients in China.
| S-EPMC6200003 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Analyses of the global spatial and temporal distribution of enteric fever outbreaks worldwide are important factors to consider in estimating the disease burden of enteric fever disease burden. METHODS:We conducted a global literature review of enteric fever outbreak data by systematically using multiple databases from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2018 and classified them by time, place, diagnostic methods, and drug susceptibility, to illustrate outbreak characteristics including spatial and temporal patterns. RESULTS:There were 180 940 cases in 303 identified outbreaks caused by infection with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) and Salmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi A or B (S. Paratyphi). The size of outbreak ranged from 1 to 42 564. Fifty-one percent of outbreaks occurred in Asia, 15% in Africa, 14% in Oceania, and the rest in other regions. Forty-six percent of outbreaks specified confirmation by blood culture, and 82 outbreaks reported drug susceptibility, of which 54% had multidrug-resistant pathogens. Paratyphoid outbreaks were less common compared to typhoid (22 vs 281) and more prevalent in Asia than Africa. Risk factors were multifactorial, with contaminated water being the main factor. CONCLUSIONS:Enteric fever outbreak burden remains high in endemic low- and middle-income countries and, despite its limitations, outbreak data provide valuable contemporary evidence in prioritizing resources, public health policies, and actions. This review highlights geographical locations where urgent attention is needed for enteric fever control and calls for global action to prevent and contain outbreaks.
| S-EPMC6821269 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Typhoid and paratyphoid fever may follow a seasonal pattern, but this pattern is not well characterized. Moreover, the environmental drivers that influence seasonal dynamics are not fully understood, although increasing evidence suggests that rainfall and temperature may play an important role. We compiled a database of typhoid, paratyphoid, or enteric fever and their potential environmental drivers. We assessed the seasonal dynamics by region and latitude, quantifying the mean timing of peak prevalence and seasonal variability. Moreover, we investigated the potential drivers of the seasonal dynamics and compared the seasonal dynamics for typhoid and paratyphoid fever. We observed a distinct seasonal pattern for enteric and typhoid fever by latitude, with seasonal variability more pronounced further from the equator. We also found evidence of a positive association between preceding rainfall and enteric fever among settings 35°-11°N and a more consistent positive association between temperature and enteric fever incidence across most regions of the world. In conclusion, we identified varying seasonal dynamics for enteric or typhoid fever in association with environmental factors. The underlying mechanisms that drive the seasonality of enteric fever are likely dependent on the local context and should be taken into account in future control efforts.
| S-EPMC5932015 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background Despite significant progress in sanitation status and public health awareness, intestinal infectious diseases (IID) have caused a serious disease burden in China. Little was known about the spatio-temporal pattern of IID at the county level in Zhejiang. Therefore, a spatio-temporal modelling study to identify high-risk regions of IID incidence and potential risk factors was conducted. Methods Reported cases of notifiable IID from 2008 to 2021 were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Moran’s I index and the local indicators of spatial association (LISA) were calculated using Geoda software to identify the spatial autocorrelation and high-risk areas of IID incidence. Bayesian hierarchical model was used to explore socioeconomic and climate factors affecting IID incidence inequities from spatial and temporal perspectives. Results From 2008 to 2021, a total of 101 cholera, 55,298 bacterial dysentery, 131 amoebic dysentery, 5297 typhoid, 2102 paratyphoid, 27,947 HEV, 1,695,925 hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), and 1,505,797 other infectious diarrhea (OID) cases were reported in Zhejiang Province. The hot spots for bacterial dysentery, OID, and HEV incidence were found mainly in Hangzhou, while high-high cluster regions for incidence of enteric fever and HFMD were mainly located in Ningbo. The Bayesian model showed that Areas with a high proportion of males had a lower risk of BD and enteric fever. People under the age of 18 may have a higher risk of IID. High urbanization rate was a protective factor against HFMD (RR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.94), but was a risk factor for HEV (RR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01–1.10). BD risk (RR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.10–1.18) and enteric fever risk (RR = 1.18, 95% CI:1.10–1.27) seemed higher in areas with high GDP per capita. The greater the population density, the higher the risk of BD (RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.23–1.36), enteric fever (RR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.00–1.25), and HEV (RR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.09–1.21). Among climate variables, higher temperature was associated with a higher risk of BD (RR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.23–1.41), enteric fever (RR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.33–1.50), and HFMD (RR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.08–1.38), and with lower risk of HEV (RR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78–0.89). Precipitation was positively correlated with enteric fever (RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00–1.08), HFMD (RR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00–1.06), and HEV (RR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.03–1.08). Higher HFMD risk was also associated with increasing relative humidity (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.16–1.24) and lower wind velocity (RR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.84–0.92). Conclusions There was significant spatial clustering of IID incidence in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2021. Spatio-temporal patterns of IID risk could be largely explained by socioeconomic and meteorological factors. Preventive measures and enhanced monitoring should be taken in some high-risk counties in Hangzhou city and Ningbo city. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-023-16552-4.
| S-EPMC10464402 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe disease burden caused by pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Sichuan province still persisted at a high level, and large spatial variances were presented across regional distribution disparities. The socio-economic factors were suspected to affect the population of TB notification, we aimed to describe TB case notification rate (CNR) and identify which factors influence TB epidemic are necessary for the prevention and control of the disease in Sichuan province.MethodsA retrospective cross-sectional study and an ecological spatial analysis was conducted to quantify the presence and location of spatial clusters of TB by the Moran's I index and examined these patterns with socio-economic risk factors by hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model.ResultsA total of 630,009 pulmonary TB cases were notified from 2006 to 2015 in 181 counties of Sichuan province. The CNR decreased year by year since 2007, from 88.70 to 61.37 per 100,000 persons. The spatial heterogeneities of CNR were observed during the study periods. Global Moran's I index varied from 0.23 to 0.44 with all P-value < 0.001. The Bayesian spatio-temporal model with parametric spatio-temporal interactions was chosen as the best model according to the minimum of Deviance Information Criterion (DIC)(19,379.01), and in which the quadratic form of time was taken. The proportion of age group and education year were all associated with CNR after adjusting the spatial effect, temporal effect and spatio-temporal interactions. TB CNR increased by 10.2% [95% credible interval (CI): 6.7-13.7%] for every 1-standard-deviation increase in proportion of age group and decreased by 23% (95% CI: 13.7-32.7%) for every 1-standard-deviation increase in education year.ConclusionsThere were spatial clusters of TB notification rate in Sichuan province from 2006 to 2015, and heavy TB burden was mainly attributed to aging and low socioeconomic status including poor education. Thus, it is more important to pay more attention to the elderly population and improve socioeconomic status including promoting education level in Sichuan province to reduce the TB burden.
| S-EPMC7310234 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PURPOSE OF REVIEW:Enteric fever remains a major global-health concern, estimated to be responsible for between 11.9 and 26.9 million cases annually. Long-term prevention of enteric fever will require improved access to safe drinking water combined with investment in sanitation and hygiene interventions. In the short-to-medium term, new control strategies for typhoid fever have arrived in the form of typhoid Vi-conjugate vaccines (TCVs), offering hope that disease control can be achieved in the near future. RECENT FINDINGS:The diagnosis of enteric fever is complicated by its nonspecific clinical presentation, coupled with the low sensitivity of commonly used diagnostics. Investment in diagnostics has the potential to improve management, to refine estimates of disease burden and to facilitate vaccine impact studies. A new generation of reliable, diagnostic tests is needed that are simultaneously accessible, cost-effective, sensitive, and specific. The emergence and global dissemination of multidrug-resistant, fluoroquinolone-resistant, and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) strains of Salmonella Typhi emphasizes the importance of continued surveillance and appropriate antibiotic stewardship, integrated into a global strategy to address antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Current empirical treatment guidelines are out of date and should be updated to respond to local trends in AMR, so as to guide treatment choices in the absence of robust diagnostics and laboratory facilities. In September 2017, the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) immunization recommended the programmatic use of TCVs in high burden countries. Ongoing and future studies should aim to study the impact of these vaccines in a diverse range of setting and to support the deployment of TCVs in high-burden countries. SUMMARY:The advent of new generation TCVs offers us a practical and affordable public-health tool that - for the first time - can be integrated into routine childhood immunization programmes. In this review, we advocate for the deployment of TCVs in line with WHO recommendations, to improve child health and limit the spread of antibiotic-resistant S. Typhi.
| S-EPMC6319573 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn 2017, more than half the cases of typhoid fever worldwide were projected to have occurred in India. In the absence of contemporary population-based data, it is unclear whether declining trends of hospitalization for typhoid in India reflect increased antibiotic treatment or a true reduction in infection.MethodsFrom 2017 through 2020, we conducted weekly surveillance for acute febrile illness and measured the incidence of typhoid fever (as confirmed on blood culture) in a prospective cohort of children between the ages of 6 months and 14 years at three urban sites and one rural site in India. At an additional urban site and five rural sites, we combined blood-culture testing of hospitalized patients who had a fever with survey data regarding health care use to estimate incidence in the community.ResultsA total of 24,062 children who were enrolled in four cohorts contributed 46,959 child-years of observation. Among these children, 299 culture-confirmed typhoid cases were recorded, with an incidence per 100,000 child-years of 576 to 1173 cases in urban sites and 35 in rural Pune. The estimated incidence of typhoid fever from hospital surveillance ranged from 12 to 1622 cases per 100,000 child-years among children between the ages of 6 months and 14 years and from 108 to 970 cases per 100,000 person-years among those who were 15 years of age or older. Salmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi was isolated from 33 children, for an overall incidence of 68 cases per 100,000 child-years after adjustment for age.ConclusionsThe incidence of typhoid fever in urban India remains high, with generally lower estimates of incidence in most rural areas. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; NSSEFI Clinical Trials Registry of India number, CTRI/2017/09/009719; ISRCTN registry number, ISRCTN72938224.).
| S-EPMC10116367 | biostudies-literature