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Weight History and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Three Prospective Cohort Studies.

ABSTRACT: The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and mortality is controversial.To investigate the relationship between maximum BMI over 16 years and subsequent mortality.3 prospective cohort studies.Nurses' Health Study I and II and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study.225 072 men and women with 32 571 deaths observed over a mean of 12.3 years of follow-up.Maximum BMI over 16 years of weight history and all-cause and cause-specific mortality.Maximum BMIs in the overweight (25.0 to 29.9 kg/m2) (multivariate hazard ratio [HR], 1.06 [95% CI, 1.03 to 1.08]), obese I (30.0 to 34.9 kg/m2) (HR, 1.24 [CI, 1.20 to 1.29]), and obese II (?35.0 kg/m2) (HR, 1.73 [CI, 1.66 to 1.80]) categories were associated with increases in risk for all-cause death. The pattern of excess risk with a maximum BMI above normal weight was maintained across strata defined by smoking status, sex, and age, but the excess was greatest among those younger than 70 years and never-smokers. In contrast, a significant inverse association between overweight and mortality (HR, 0.96 [CI, 0.94 to 0.99]) was observed when BMI was defined using a single baseline measurement. Maximum overweight was also associated with increased cause-specific mortality, including death from cardiovascular disease and coronary heart disease.Residual confounding and misclassification.The paradoxical association between overweight and mortality is reversed in analyses incorporating weight history. Maximum BMI may be a useful metric to minimize reverse causation bias associated with a single baseline BMI assessment.National Institutes of Health.

SUBMITTER: Yu E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5518318 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Weight History and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Three Prospective Cohort Studies.

Yu Edward E Ley Sylvia H SH Manson JoAnn E JE Willett Walter W Satija Ambika A Hu Frank B FB Stokes Andrew A

Annals of internal medicine 20170404 9

<h4>Background</h4>The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and mortality is controversial.<h4>Objective</h4>To investigate the relationship between maximum BMI over 16 years and subsequent mortality.<h4>Design</h4>3 prospective cohort studies.<h4>Setting</h4>Nurses' Health Study I and II and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study.<h4>Participants</h4>225 072 men and women with 32 571 deaths observed over a mean of 12.3 years of follow-up.<h4>Measurements</h4>Maximum BMI over 16 years of wei ...[more]

PMID: 28384755

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Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate the association between weight changes across adulthood and mortality.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingUS National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1988-94 and 1999-2014.Participants36 051 people aged 40 years or over with measured body weight and height at baseline and recalled weight at young adulthood (25 years old) and middle adulthood (10 years before baseline).Main outcome measuresAll cause and cause specific mortality from baseline until 31 December 2015.ResultsDuring a mean follow-up of 12.3 years, 10 500 deaths occurred. Compared with participants who remained at normal weight, those moving from the non-obese to obese category between young and middle adulthood had a 22% (hazard ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 1.33) and 49% (1.49, 1.21 to 1.83) higher risk of all cause mortality and heart disease mortality, respectively. Changing from obese to non-obese body mass index over this period was not significantly associated with mortality risk. An obese to non-obese weight change pattern from middle to late adulthood was associated with increased risk of all cause mortality (1.30, 1.16 to 1.45) and heart disease mortality (1.48, 1.14 to 1.92), whereas moving from the non-obese to obese category over this period was not significantly associated with mortality risk. Maintaining obesity across adulthood was consistently associated with increased risk of all cause mortality; the hazard ratio was 1.72 (1.52 to 1.95) from young to middle adulthood, 1.61 (1.41 to 1.84) from young to late adulthood, and 1.20 (1.09 to 1.32) from middle to late adulthood. Maximum overweight had a very modest or null association with mortality across adulthood. No significant associations were found between various weight change patterns and cancer mortality.ConclusionsStable obesity across adulthood, weight gain from young to middle adulthood, and weight loss from middle to late adulthood were associated with increased risks of mortality. The findings imply that maintaining normal weight across adulthood, especially preventing weight gain in early adulthood, is important for preventing premature deaths in later life.

Project description:Data on the long-term association between low-carbohydrate diets and mortality are sparse.To examine the association of low-carbohydrate diets with mortality during 26 years of follow-up in women and 20 years in men.Prospective cohort study of women and men who were followed from 1980 (women) or 1986 (men) until 2006. Low-carbohydrate diets, either animal-based (emphasizing animal sources of fat and protein) or vegetable-based (emphasizing vegetable sources of fat and protein), were computed from several validated food-frequency questionnaires assessed during follow-up.Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals' Follow-up Study.85 168 women (aged 34 to 59 years at baseline) and 44 548 men (aged 40 to 75 years at baseline) without heart disease, cancer, or diabetes.Investigators documented 12 555 deaths (2458 cardiovascular-related and 5780 cancer-related) in women and 8678 deaths (2746 cardiovascular-related and 2960 cancer-related) in men.The overall low-carbohydrate score was associated with a modest increase in overall mortality in a pooled analysis (hazard ratio [HR] comparing extreme deciles, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.01 to 1.24]; P for trend = 0.136). The animal low-carbohydrate score was associated with higher all-cause mortality (pooled HR comparing extreme deciles, 1.23 [CI, 1.11 to 1.37]; P for trend = 0.051), cardiovascular mortality (corresponding HR, 1.14 [CI, 1.01 to 1.29]; P for trend = 0.029), and cancer mortality (corresponding HR, 1.28 [CI, 1.02 to 1.60]; P for trend = 0.089). In contrast, a higher vegetable low-carbohydrate score was associated with lower all-cause mortality (HR, 0.80 [CI, 0.75 to 0.85]; P for trend </= 0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 0.77 [CI, 0.68 to 0.87]; P for trend < 0.001).Diet and lifestyle characteristics were assessed with some degree of error. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were probably not substantively affected by residual confounding or an unmeasured confounder. Participants were not a representative sample of the U.S. population.A low-carbohydrate diet based on animal sources was associated with higher all-cause mortality in both men and women, whereas a vegetable-based low-carbohydrate diet was associated with lower all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality rates.National Institutes of Health.

Project description:Objective To evaluate the combined associations of diet, physical activity, moderate alcohol consumption, and smoking with body weight on risk of all cause and cause specific mortality.Design Longitudinal study with up to 32 years of follow-up.Setting Nurses' Health Study (1980-2012) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2012).Participants 74 582 women from the Nurses' Health Study and 39 284 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study who were free from cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline.Main outcome measures Exposures included body mass index (BMI), score on the alternate healthy eating index, level of physical activity, smoking habits, and alcohol drinking while outcome was mortality (all cause, cardiovascular, cancer). Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate the adjusted hazard ratios of all cause, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality with their 95% confidence intervals across categories of BMI, with 22.5-24.9 as the reference.Results During up to 32 years of follow-up, there were 30 013 deaths (including 10 808 from cancer and 7189 from cardiovascular disease). In each of the four categories of BMI studied (18.5-22.4, 22.5-24.9, 25-29.9, ≥30), people with one or more healthy lifestyle factors had a significantly lower risk of total, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality than individuals with no low risk lifestyle factors. A combination of at least three low risk lifestyle factors and BMI between 18.5-22.4 was associated with the lowest risk of all cause (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.35 to 0.43), cancer (0.40, 0.34 to 0.47), and cardiovascular (0.37, 0.29 to 0.46) mortality, compared with those with BMI between 22.5-24.9 and none of the four low risk lifestyle factors.Conclusion Although people with a higher BMI can have lower risk of premature mortality if they also have at least one low risk lifestyle factor, the lowest risk of premature mortality is in people in the 18.5-22.4 BMI range with high score on the alternate healthy eating index, high level of physical activity, moderate alcohol drinking, and who do not smoke. It is important to consider diet and lifestyle factors in the evaluation of the association between BMI and mortality.

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Weight History and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Three Prospective Cohort Studies.

Publications

Weight History and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Three Prospective Cohort Studies.

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