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Improving estimates of children living with HIV from the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Estimated numbers of children living with HIV determine programmatic and treatment needs. We explain the changes made to the UNAIDS estimates between 2015 and 2016, and describe the challenges around these estimates. METHODS:Estimates of children newly infected, living with HIV, and dying of AIDS are developed by country teams using Spectrum software. Spectrum files are available for 160 countries, which represent 98% of the global population. In 2016, the methods were updated to reflect the latest evidence on mother-to-child HIV transmission and improved assumptions on the age children initiate antiretroviral therapy. We report updated results using the 2016 model and validate these estimates against mother-to-child transmission rates and HIV prevalence from population-based surveys for the survey year. RESULTS:The revised 2016 model estimates 27% fewer children living with HIV in 2014 than the 2015 model, primarily due to changes in the probability of mother-to-child transmission among women with incident HIV during pregnancy. The revised estimates were consistent with population-based surveys of HIV transmission and HIV prevalence among children aged 5-9 years, but were lower than surveys among children aged 10-14 years. CONCLUSIONS:The revised 2016 model is an improvement on previous models. Paediatric HIV models will continue to evolve as further improvements are made to the assumptions. Commodities forecasting and programme planning rely on these estimates, and increasing accuracy will be critical to enable effective scale-up and optimal use of resources. Efforts are needed to improve empirical measures of HIV prevalence, incidence, and mortality among children.

SUBMITTER: Mahy M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5520992 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Improving estimates of children living with HIV from the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model.

Mahy Mary M Penazzato Martina M Ciaranello Andrea A Mofenson Lynne L Yianoutsos Constantin T CT Davies Mary-Ann MA Stover John J

AIDS (London, England) 20170401

<h4>Objective</h4>Estimated numbers of children living with HIV determine programmatic and treatment needs. We explain the changes made to the UNAIDS estimates between 2015 and 2016, and describe the challenges around these estimates.<h4>Methods</h4>Estimates of children newly infected, living with HIV, and dying of AIDS are developed by country teams using Spectrum software. Spectrum files are available for 160 countries, which represent 98% of the global population. In 2016, the methods were u ...[more]

PMID: 28301337

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Project description:IntroductionMozambique continues to face a severe HIV epidemic and high cost for its control, largely born by international donors. We assessed feasible targets, likely impact and costs for the 2015-2019 national strategic HIV/AIDS plan (NSP).MethodsThe HIV epidemic and response was modelled in the Spectrum/Goals/Resource Needs dynamical simulation model, separately for North/Center/South regions, fitted to antenatal clinic surveillance data, household and key risk group surveys, program statistics, and financial records. Intervention targets were defined in collaboration with the National AIDS Council, Ministry of Health, technical partners and implementing NGOs, considering existing commitments.ResultsImplementing the NSP to meet existing coverage targets would reduce annual new infections among all ages from 105,000 in 2014 to 78,000 in 2019, and reduce annual HIV/AIDS-related deaths from 80,000 to 56,000. Additional scale-up of prevention interventions targeting high-risk groups, with improved patient retention on ART, could further reduce burden to 65,000 new infections and 51,000 HIV-related deaths in 2019. Program cost would increase from US$ 273 million in 2014, to US$ 433 million in 2019 for 'Current targets', or US$ 495 million in 2019 for 'Accelerated scale-up'. The 'Accelerated scale-up' would lower cost per infection averted, due to an enhanced focus on behavioural prevention for high-risk groups. Cost and mortality impact are driven by ART, which accounts for 53% of resource needs in 2019. Infections averted are driven by scale-up of interventions targeting sex work (North, rising epidemic) and voluntary male circumcision (Center & South, generalized epidemics).ConclusionThe NSP could aim to reduce annual new HIV infections and deaths by 2019 by 30% and 40%, respectively, from 2014 levels. Achieving incidence and mortality reductions corresponding to UNAIDS' 'Fast track' targets will require increased ART coverage and additional behavioural prevention targeting key risk groups.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Since 1998 the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and the World Health Organization has provided estimates on the magnitude of the HIV epidemic for individual countries. Starting with the 2003 estimates, plausibility bounds about the estimates were also reported. The bounds are intended to serve as a guide as to what reasonable or plausible ranges are for the uncertainty in HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality. METHODS: Plausibility bounds were developed for three situations: for countries with generalised epidemics, for countries with low level or concentrated epidemics (LLC), and for regions. The techniques used build on those developed for the previous reporting round. However the current bounds are based on the available surveillance and survey data from each individual country rather than on data from a few prototypical countries. RESULTS: The uncertainty around the HIV estimates depends on the quality of the surveillance system in the country. Countries with population based HIV seroprevalence surveys have the tightest plausibility bounds (average relative range about the adult HIV prevalence (ARR) of -18% to +19%.) Generalised epidemic countries without a survey have the next tightest ranges (average ARR of -46% to +59%). Those LLC countries which have conducted multiple surveys over time for HIV among the populations most at risk have the bounds similar to those in generalised epidemic countries (ARR -40% to +67%). As the number and quality of the studies in LLC countries goes down, the plausibility bounds increase (ARR of -38% to +102% for countries with medium quality data and ARR of -53% to +183% for countries with poor quality data). The plausibility bounds for regions directly reflect the bounds for the countries in those regions. CONCLUSIONS: Although scientific, the plausibility bounds do not represent and should not be interpreted as formal statistical confidence intervals. However in order to make the bounds as meaningful as possible the authors have tried to apply reasonable statistical approaches and assumptions to their derivation. An understanding of the uncertainty in the HIV estimates may help policy makers take better informed decisions to address the epidemic in their respective countries.

Project description:Online social networks have been used to enhance human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) prevention, diagnosis, and treatment programs worldwide. This study aimed to develop a conceptual model of using online social networks in improving health literacy and medication adherence among people living with HIV/AIDS in Iran. This mixed-method sequential exploratory study was conducted in three phases. Firstly, a series of semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of 29 HIV-positive patients were conducted to investigate the perceptions and experiences of HIV-positive patients about using online social networks to support health literacy and medication adherence. Thematic analysis was used to analyse qualitative interviews, extract potential components, and design a conceptual model. Then, a Delphi study with 27 HIV-positive patients was subsequently conducted to examine the consensus of patients on the proposed model. Finally, the trustworthiness and credibility of the proposed model were reviewed and evaluated by expert panel members from epidemiology and public health. Seven themes and 24 sub-themes emerged from the qualitative interviews. Five themes encompassed components of online social networks that supported communication and information-seeking behaviour of people living with HIV/AIDS. The two other themes encompassed social support and health-related outcomes including medication adherence. The credibility of the proposed conceptual model was confirmed methodologically using the expert panel and Delphi technique. Our findings highlighted that using online social networks has empowered Iranian people living with HIV/AIDS, making them more connected, safe, and able to access HIV/AIDS-related information and services. The role of online social networks in improving health literacy and medication adherence was also demonstrated in a conceptual model to understand the supportive components of online social networks in the HIV care continuum as well as customized interventions to improve the success of antiretroviral therapies.

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Improving estimates of children living with HIV from the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model.

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Improving estimates of children living with HIV from the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model.

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