Dataset Information

Spatial and temporal patterns of diarrhoea in Bhutan 2003-2013.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To describe spatiotemporal patterns of diarrhoea in Bhutan, and quantify the association between climatic factors and the distribution and dynamics of the disease.

Methods

Nationwide data on diarrhoea were obtained for 2003 to 2013 from the Health Information and Management System (HIMS), Ministry of Health, Bhutan. Climatic variables were obtained from the Department of Hydro Met Services, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Bhutan. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns of diarrhoea. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to quantify the relationship between monthly diarrhoea, maximum temperature, rainfall, age and gender.

Results

The monthly average diarrhoea incidence was highly seasonal. Diarrhoea incidence increased by 0.6% (95% CrI: 0.5-0.6%) for every degree increase in maximum temperature; and 5% (95 Cr I: 4.9-5.1%) for a 1 mm increase in rainfall. Children aged <5 years were found to be 74.2% (95% CrI: 74.1-74.4) more likely to experience diarrhoea than children and adults aged ?5 years and females were 4.9% (95% CrI: 4.4-5.3%) less likely to suffer from diarrhoea as compared to males. Significant residual spatial clustering was found after accounting for climate and demographic variables.

Conclusions

Diarrhoea incidence was highly seasonal, with positive associations with maximum temperature and rainfall and negative associations with age and being female. This calls for public health actions to reduce future risks of climate change with great consideration of local climatic conditions. In addition, protection of <5 years children should be prioritize through provision of rotavirus vaccination, safe and clean drinking water, and proper latrines.

SUBMITTER: Wangdi K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5521140 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Spatial and temporal patterns of diarrhoea in Bhutan 2003-2013.

Wangdi Kinley K Clements Archie Ca AC

BMC infectious diseases 20170721 1

<h4>Background</h4>To describe spatiotemporal patterns of diarrhoea in Bhutan, and quantify the association between climatic factors and the distribution and dynamics of the disease.<h4>Methods</h4>Nationwide data on diarrhoea were obtained for 2003 to 2013 from the Health Information and Management System (HIMS), Ministry of Health, Bhutan. Climatic variables were obtained from the Department of Hydro Met Services, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Bhutan. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to e ...[more]

PMID: 28732533

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundArtemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria has recently been identified on the Thailand-Cambodia border and more recently in parts of Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam. There is concern that if this resistance were to spread, it would severely hamper malaria control and elimination efforts worldwide. Efforts are currently underway to intensify malaria control activities and ultimately eliminate malaria from Cambodia. To support these efforts, it is crucial to have a detailed picture of disease burden and its major determinants over time.MethodsAn analysis of spatial and temporal data on clinical malaria in Cambodia collected by the National Centre for Parasitology, Entomology and Malaria Control (CNM) and the Department of Planning and Health Information, Ministry of Health Cambodia from 2004 to 2013 is presented.ResultsThere has been a marked decrease of 81% in annual cases due to P. falciparum since 2009 coinciding with a rapid scale-up in village malaria workers (VMWs) and insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs). Concurrently, the number of cases with Plasmodium vivax has greatly increased. It is estimated that there were around 112,000 total cases in 2012, 2.8 times greater than the WHO estimate for that year, and 68,000 in 2013 (an annual parasite incidence (API) of 4.6/1000). With the scale-up of VMWs, numbers of patients presenting to government facilities did not fall and it appears likely that those who saw VMWs had previously accessed healthcare in the private sector. Malaria mortality has decreased, particularly in areas with VMWs. There has been a marked decrease in cases in parts of western Cambodia, especially in Pailin and Battambang Provinces. In the northeast, the fall in malaria burden has been more modest, this area having the highest API in 2013.ConclusionThe clinical burden of falciparum malaria in most areas of Cambodia has greatly decreased from 2009 to 2013, associated with roll-out of ITNs and VMWs. Numbers of cases with P. vivax have increased. Possible reasons for these trends are discussed and areas requiring further study are highlighted. Although malaria surveillance data are prone to collection bias and tend to underestimate disease burden, the finding of similar trends in two independent datasets in this study greatly increased the robustness of the findings.

Project description:To investigate the temporal-spatial distribution and evolutions of global Total Electron Content (TEC), we estimate the global TEC data from 1999 to 2013 by processing the GPS data collected by the International Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Service (IGS) stations, and robustly constructed the TEC time series at each of the global 5°×2.5° grids. We found that the spatial distribution of the global TEC has a pattern where the number of TECs diminishes gradually from a low-latitude region to high-latitude region, and anomalies appear in the equatorial crest and Greenland. Temporal variations show that the peak TEC appears in equinoctial months, and this corresponds to the semiannual variation of TEC. Furthermore, the winter anomaly is also observed in the equatorial area of the northern hemisphere and high latitudes of the southern hemisphere. Morlet wavelet analysis is used to determine periods of TEC variations and results indicate that the 1-day, 26.5-day, semi-annual and annual cycles are the major significant periods. The fitting results of a quadratic polynomial show that the effect of solar activity on TEC is stronger in low latitudes than in mid-high latitudes, and stronger in the southern hemisphere than in the northern hemisphere. But the effect in low latitudes in the northern hemisphere is stronger than that in low latitudes in the southern hemisphere. The effect of solar activity on TECs was analyzed with the cross wavelet analysis and the wavelet coherence transformation, and we found that there appears to be a strong coherence in the period of about 27 days. So the sunspot as one index of solar activity seriously affects the TEC variations with the sun's rotation. We fit the TEC data with the least squares spectral analysis to study the periodic variations of TEC. The changing trend of TEC is generally -0.08 TECu per year from 1999 to 2013. So TECs decrease over most areas year by year, but TECs over the Arctic around Greenland maintained a rising trend during these 15 years.

Project description:BackgroundThe objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of malaria incidence as to determine the means by which climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall and humidity affect its distribution in Maputo province, Mozambique.MethodsThis study presents a model of malaria that evolves in space and time in Maputo province-Mozambique, over a ten years period (1999-2008). The model incorporates malaria cases and their relation to environmental variables. Due to incompleteness of climatic data, a multiple imputation technique is employed. Additionally, the whole province is interpolated through a Gaussian process. This method overcomes the misalignment problem of environmental variables (available at meteorological stations--points) and malaria cases (available as aggregates for every district--area). Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to obtain posterior inference and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) to perform model comparison.ResultsA Bayesian model with interaction terms was found to be the best fitted model. Malaria incidence was associated to humidity and maximum temperature. Malaria risk increased with maximum temperature over 28 °C (relative risk (RR) of 0.0060 and 95% Bayesian credible interval (CI) of 0.00033-0.0095) and humidity (relative risk (RR) of 0.00741 and 95% Bayesian CI 0.005141-0.0093). The results would suggest that additional non-climatic factors including socio-economic status, elevation, etc. also influence malaria transmission in Mozambique.ConclusionsThese results demonstrate the potential of climate predictors particularly, humidity and maximum temperature in explaining malaria incidence risk for the studied period in Maputo province. Smoothed maps obtained as monthly average of malaria incidence allowed to visualize months of initial and peak transmission. They also illustrate a variation on malaria incidence risk that might not be related to climatic factors. However, these factors are still determinant for malaria transmission and intensity in the region.

Dataset Information

Spatial and temporal patterns of diarrhoea in Bhutan 2003-2013.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Spatial and temporal patterns of diarrhoea in Bhutan 2003-2013.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets