Dataset Information

Rheumatic Heart Disease Severity, Progression and Outcomes: A Multi-State Model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a disease of international importance, yet little has been published about disease progression in a contemporary patient cohort. Multi-state models provide a well-established method of estimating rates of transition between disease states, and can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of potential interventions. We aimed to create a multi-state model for RHD progression using serial clinical data from a cohort of Australian patients.

Methods and results

The Northern Territory RHD register was used to identify all Indigenous residents diagnosed with RHD between the ages of 5 and 24 years in the time period 1999-2012. Disease severity over time, surgeries, and deaths were evaluated for 591 patients. Of 96 (16.2%) patients with severe RHD at diagnosis, 50% had proceeded to valve surgery by 2 years, and 10% were dead within 6 years. Of those diagnosed with moderate RHD, there was a similar chance of disease regression or progression over time. Patients with mild RHD at diagnosis were the most stable, with 64% remaining mild after 10 years; however, 11.4% progressed to severe RHD and half of these required surgery.

Conclusions

The prognosis of young Indigenous Australians diagnosed with severe RHD is bleak; interventions must focus on earlier detection and treatment if the observed natural history is to be improved. This multi-state model can be used to predict the effect of different interventions on disease progression and the associated costs.

SUBMITTER: Cannon J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5523987 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The purpose of this retrospective propensity score-matched study was to evaluate the superiority of different application approaches [continuous diuretics use (CDU) vs. intermittent diuretics use (IDU)] and types [loop diuretics (LDs) vs. thiazide diuretics (TDs)] of diuretics on long-term outcomes for rheumatic heart disease (RHD) patients with compensated chronic heart failure (CHF). A total of 494 RHD patients with compensated CHF were analysed after propensity score matching. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to investigate the associations of different diuretic application approaches and types with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death (CVD), and cerebrovascular death. Binary logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations of different diuretic application approaches and types with 1-, 3-, and 5-year heart failure (HF) re-hospitalization as well as new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). In the comparison between IDU and CDU strategies for RHD patients with compensated CHF, CDU was associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 2.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.54-3.97, P < 0.001] and CVD (adjusted HR = 3.67, 95% CI: 1.95-6.89, P < 0.001) except cerebrovascular death (adjusted HR = 1.07, 95% CI: 0.34-3.41, P = 0.905). CDU was also associated with increased risks of 3-year [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.09-2.96, P = 0.022] and 5-year (adjusted OR = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.18-3.45, P = 0.010) HF re-hospitalization risk and new-onset AF (adjusted OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.31-4.20, P = 0.004) except 1-year HF re-hospitalization risk (adjusted OR = 1.54, 95% CI: 0.88-2.70, P = 0.130). In the comparison between TDs and LDs among study participants receiving IDU strategy, LDs were only associated with decreased 1-year HF re-hospitalization risk (adjusted OR = 0.30, 95% CI: 0.12-0.77, P = 0.012) rather than all-cause mortality, CVD, cerebrovascular death, 3- and 5-year HF re-hospitalization, and new-onset AF (all adjusted P > 0.05). In the comparison between TDs and LDs among study participants receiving CDU strategy, LDs were not associated with cerebrovascular death and 1-year HF re-hospitalization (both adjusted P > 0.05) but with increased risks of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.09-2.99, P = 0.023), CVD (adjusted HR = 1.89, 95% CI: 1.04-3.44, P = 0.037), 3-year (adjusted OR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.06-3.43, P = 0.031) and 5-year (adjusted OR = 2.16, 95% CI: 1.12-4.19, P = 0.022) HF re-hospitalization, and new-onset AF (adjusted OR = 2.66, 95% CI: 1.25-5.68, P = 0.012). Continuous diuretics use (especially LDs) was associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality, CVD, medium-term/long-term HF re-hospitalization, and new-onset AF in RHD patients with compensated CHF.