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Analysis of an ordinal endpoint for use in evaluating treatments for severe influenza requiring hospitalization.

ABSTRACT: Background/Aims A single best endpoint for evaluating treatments of severe influenza requiring hospitalization has not been identified. A novel six-category ordinal endpoint of patient status is being used in a randomized controlled trial (FLU-Intravenous Immunoglobulin - FLU-IVIG) of intravenous immunoglobulin. We systematically examine four factors regarding the use of this ordinal endpoint that may affect power from fitting a proportional odds model: (1) deviations from the proportional odds assumption which result in the same overall treatment effect as specified in the FLU-IVIG protocol and which result in a diminished overall treatment effect, (2) deviations from the distribution of the placebo group assumed in the FLU-IVIG design, (3) the effect of patient misclassification among the six categories, and (4) the number of categories of the ordinal endpoint. We also consider interactions between the treatment effect (i.e. factor 1) and each other factor. Methods We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study to assess the effect of each factor. To study factor 1, we developed an algorithm for deriving distributions of the ordinal endpoint in the two treatment groups that deviated from proportional odds while maintaining the same overall treatment effect. For factor 2, we considered placebo group distributions which were more or less skewed than the one specified in the FLU-IVIG protocol by adding or subtracting a constant from the cumulative log odds. To assess factor 3, we added misclassification between adjacent pairs of categories that depend on subjective patient/clinician assessments. For factor 4, we collapsed some categories into single categories. Results Deviations from proportional odds reduced power at most from 80% to 77% given the same overall treatment effect as specified in the FLU-IVIG protocol. Misclassification and collapsing categories can reduce power by over 40 and 10?percentage points, respectively, when they affect categories with many patients and a discernible treatment effect. But collapsing categories that contain no treatment effect can raise power by over 20?percentage points. Differences in the distribution of the placebo group can raise power by over 20?percentage points or reduce power by over 40?percentage points depending on how patients are shifted to portions of the ordinal endpoint with a large treatment effect. Conclusion Provided that the overall treatment effect is maintained, deviations from proportional odds marginally reduce power. However, deviations from proportional odds can modify the effect of misclassification, the number of categories, and the distribution of the placebo group on power. In general, adjacent pairs of categories with many patients should be kept separate to help ensure that power is maintained at the pre-specified level.

SUBMITTER: Peterson RL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5528156 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Analysis of an ordinal endpoint for use in evaluating treatments for severe influenza requiring hospitalization.

Peterson Ross L RL Vock David M DM Powers John H JH Emery Sean S Cruz Eduardo Fernandez EF Hunsberger Sally S Jain Mamta K MK Pett Sarah S Neaton James D JD

Clinical trials (London, England) 20170306 3

Background/Aims A single best endpoint for evaluating treatments of severe influenza requiring hospitalization has not been identified. A novel six-category ordinal endpoint of patient status is being used in a randomized controlled trial (FLU-Intravenous Immunoglobulin - FLU-IVIG) of intravenous immunoglobulin. We systematically examine four factors regarding the use of this ordinal endpoint that may affect power from fitting a proportional odds model: (1) deviations from the proportional odds ...[more]

PMID: 28397569

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Project description:Background/aimsThe Food and Drug Administration recommends research into developing well-defined and reliable endpoints to evaluate treatments for severe influenza requiring hospitalization. A novel 6-category ordinal endpoint of patient health status after 7 days that ranges from death to hospital discharge with resumption of normal activities is being used in a randomized placebo-controlled trial of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) for severe influenza (FLU-IVIG). We compare the power of the ordinal endpoint under a proportional odds model to other types of endpoints as a function of various trial parameters.MethodsWe used closed-form analysis and empirical simulation to compare the power of the ordinal endpoint to time-to-event, longitudinal, and binary endpoints. In the simulation setting, we varied the treatment effect and the distribution of the placebo group across the follow-up period with consideration of adjustment for baseline health status.ResultsIn the analytic setting, ordinal endpoints of high granularity provided greater power than time-to-event endpoints when most patients in the placebo group had either naturally progressed to the category of hospital discharge by day 7 or were far from hospital discharge on day 7. In the simulation setting, adjustment for baseline health status universally raised power for the proportional odds model. Across different placebo group distributions of the ordinal endpoint regardless of adjustment for baseline health status, only time-to-event endpoints yielded higher power than the ordinal endpoint for certain treatment effects.ConclusionsIn this case study, the FLU-IVIG ordinal endpoint provided greater power than time-to-event, binary, and longitudinal endpoints for most scenarios of the treatment effect and placebo group distribution, including the target population studied for FLU-IVIG. The ordinal endpoint was only surpassed by the time-to-event endpoint when many patients in the placebo group were on the cusp of hospital discharge on day 7 and the follow-up period for the time-to-event endpoint was extended to allow for additional events. Our general approach for evaluating the power of several potential endpoints for an influenza trial can be used for designing other influenza trials with different target populations and for other trials in other disease areas.

Project description:IntroductionSevere hyperkalemia, with potassium (K+) levels ? 6.5 mEq/L, is a potentially life-threatening electrolyte imbalance. For prompt and effective treatment, it is important to know its risk factors, clinical manifestations, and predictors of mortality.MethodsAn observational cohort study was performed at 2 medical centers. A total of 923 consecutive Korean patients were analyzed. All were 19 years of age or older and were hospitalized with severe hyperkalemia between August 2007 and July 2010; the diagnosis of severe hyperkalemia was made either at the time of admission to the hospital or during the period of hospitalization. Demographic and baseline clinical characteristics at the time of hyperkalemia diagnosis were assessed, and clinical outcomes such as in-hospital mortality were reviewed, using the institutions' electronic medical record systems.ResultsChronic kidney disease (CKD) was the most common underlying medical condition, and the most common precipitating factor of hyperkalemia was metabolic acidosis. Emergent admission was indicated in 68.6% of patients, 36.7% had electrocardiogram findings typical of hyperkalemia, 24.5% had multi-organ failure (MOF) at the time of hyperkalemia diagnosis, and 20.3% were diagnosed with severe hyperkalemia at the time of cardiac arrest. The in-hospital mortality rate was 30.7%; the rate was strongly correlated with the difference between serum K+ levels at admission and at their highest point, and with severe medical conditions such as malignancy, infection, and bleeding. Furthermore, a higher in-hospital mortality rate was significantly associated with the presence of cardiac arrest and/or MOF at the time of diagnosis, emergent admission, and intensive care unit treatment during hospitalization. More importantly, acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with normal baseline renal function was a strong predictor of mortality, compared with AKI superimposed on CKD.ConclusionsSevere hyperkalemia occurs in various medical conditions; the precipitating factors are similarly diverse. The mortality rate is especially high in patients with severe underlying disease, coexisting medical conditions, and those with normal baseline renal function.

Project description:Community-acquired pneumonia is a leading infectious cause of hospitalization and death among U.S. adults. Incidence estimates of pneumonia confirmed radiographically and with the use of current laboratory diagnostic tests are needed.We conducted active population-based surveillance for community-acquired pneumonia requiring hospitalization among adults 18 years of age or older in five hospitals in Chicago and Nashville. Patients with recent hospitalization or severe immunosuppression were excluded. Blood, urine, and respiratory specimens were systematically collected for culture, serologic testing, antigen detection, and molecular diagnostic testing. Study radiologists independently reviewed chest radiographs. We calculated population-based incidence rates of community-acquired pneumonia requiring hospitalization according to age and pathogen.From January 2010 through June 2012, we enrolled 2488 of 3634 eligible adults (68%). Among 2320 adults with radiographic evidence of pneumonia (93%), the median age of the patients was 57 years (interquartile range, 46 to 71); 498 patients (21%) required intensive care, and 52 (2%) died. Among 2259 patients who had radiographic evidence of pneumonia and specimens available for both bacterial and viral testing, a pathogen was detected in 853 (38%): one or more viruses in 530 (23%), bacteria in 247 (11%), bacterial and viral pathogens in 59 (3%), and a fungal or mycobacterial pathogen in 17 (1%). The most common pathogens were human rhinovirus (in 9% of patients), influenza virus (in 6%), and Streptococcus pneumoniae (in 5%). The annual incidence of pneumonia was 24.8 cases (95% confidence interval, 23.5 to 26.1) per 10,000 adults, with the highest rates among adults 65 to 79 years of age (63.0 cases per 10,000 adults) and those 80 years of age or older (164.3 cases per 10,000 adults). For each pathogen, the incidence increased with age.The incidence of community-acquired pneumonia requiring hospitalization was highest among the oldest adults. Despite current diagnostic tests, no pathogen was detected in the majority of patients. Respiratory viruses were detected more frequently than bacteria. (Funded by the Influenza Division of the National Center for Immunizations and Respiratory Diseases.).

Project description:Incidence estimates of hospitalizations for community-acquired pneumonia among children in the United States that are based on prospective data collection are limited. Updated estimates of pneumonia that has been confirmed radiographically and with the use of current laboratory diagnostic tests are needed.We conducted active population-based surveillance for community-acquired pneumonia requiring hospitalization among children younger than 18 years of age in three hospitals in Memphis, Nashville, and Salt Lake City. We excluded children with recent hospitalization or severe immunosuppression. Blood and respiratory specimens were systematically collected for pathogen detection with the use of multiple methods. Chest radiographs were reviewed independently by study radiologists.From January 2010 through June 2012, we enrolled 2638 of 3803 eligible children (69%), 2358 of whom (89%) had radiographic evidence of pneumonia. The median age of the children was 2 years (interquartile range, 1 to 6); 497 of 2358 children (21%) required intensive care, and 3 (<1%) died. Among 2222 children with radiographic evidence of pneumonia and with specimens available for bacterial and viral testing, a viral or bacterial pathogen was detected in 1802 (81%), one or more viruses in 1472 (66%), bacteria in 175 (8%), and both bacterial and viral pathogens in 155 (7%). The annual incidence of pneumonia was 15.7 cases per 10,000 children (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.9 to 16.5), with the highest rate among children younger than 2 years of age (62.2 cases per 10,000 children; 95% CI, 57.6 to 67.1). Respiratory syncytial virus was more common among children younger than 5 years of age than among older children (37% vs. 8%), as were adenovirus (15% vs. 3%) and human metapneumovirus (15% vs. 8%). Mycoplasma pneumoniae was more common among children 5 years of age or older than among younger children (19% vs. 3%).The burden of hospitalization for children with community-acquired pneumonia was highest among the very young, with respiratory viruses the most commonly detected causes of pneumonia. (Funded by the Influenza Division of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.).

Dataset Information

Analysis of an ordinal endpoint for use in evaluating treatments for severe influenza requiring hospitalization.

Publications

Analysis of an ordinal endpoint for use in evaluating treatments for severe influenza requiring hospitalization.

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