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Risk prediction of developing venous thrombosis in combined oral contraceptive users.

ABSTRACT: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a complex multifactorial disease influenced by genetic and environmental risk factors. An example for the latter is the regular use of combined oral contraceptives (CC), which increases the risk to develop VTE by 3 to 7 fold, depending on estrogen dosage and the type of progestin present in the pill. One out of 1'000 women using CC develops thrombosis, often with life-long consequences; a risk assessment is therefore necessary prior to such treatment. Currently known clinical risk factors associated with VTE development in general are routinely checked by medical doctors, however they are far from being sufficient for risk prediction, even when combined with genetic tests for Factor V Leiden and Factor II G20210A variants. Thus, clinical and notably genetic risk factors specific to the development of thrombosis associated with the use of CC in particular should be identified.Step-wise (logistic) model selection was applied to a population of 1622 women using CC, half of whom (794) had developed a thromboembolic event while using contraceptives. 46 polymorphisms and clinical parameters were tested in the model selection and a specific combination of 4 clinical risk factors and 9 polymorphisms were identified. Among the 9 polymorphisms, there are two novel genetic polymorphisms (rs1799853 and rs4379368) that had not been previously associated with the development of thromboembolic event. This new prediction model outperforms (AUC 0.71, 95% CI 0.69-0.74) previously published models for general thromboembolic events in a cross-validation setting. Further validation in independent populations should be envisaged.We identified two new genetic variants associated to VTE development, as well as a robust prediction model to assess the risk of thrombosis for women using combined oral contraceptives. This model outperforms current medical practice as well as previously published models and is the first model specific to CC use.

SUBMITTER: McDaid A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5531518 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk prediction of developing venous thrombosis in combined oral contraceptive users.

McDaid Aaron A Logette Emmanuelle E Buchillier Valérie V Muriset Maude M Suchon Pierre P Pache Thierry Daniel TD Tanackovic Goranka G Kutalik Zoltán Z Michaud Joëlle J

PloS one 20170727 7

<h4>Background</h4>Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a complex multifactorial disease influenced by genetic and environmental risk factors. An example for the latter is the regular use of combined oral contraceptives (CC), which increases the risk to develop VTE by 3 to 7 fold, depending on estrogen dosage and the type of progestin present in the pill. One out of 1'000 women using CC develops thrombosis, often with life-long consequences; a risk assessment is therefore necessary prior to such trea ...[more]

PMID: 28750087

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Project description:ObjectiveTo provide a comprehensive overview of the risk of venous thrombosis in women using different combined oral contraceptives.DesignSystematic review and network meta-analysis.Data sourcesPubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Academic Search Premier, and ScienceDirect up to 22 April 2013.Review methodsObservational studies that assessed the effect of combined oral contraceptives on venous thrombosis in healthy women. The primary outcome of interest was a fatal or non-fatal first event of venous thrombosis with the main focus on deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. Publications with at least 10 events in total were eligible. The network meta-analysis was performed using an extension of frequentist random effects models for mixed multiple treatment comparisons. Unadjusted relative risks with 95% confidence intervals were reported. The requirement for crude numbers did not allow adjustment for potential confounding variables.Results3110 publications were retrieved through a search strategy; 25 publications reporting on 26 studies were included. Incidence of venous thrombosis in non-users from two included cohorts was 1.9 and 3.7 per 10,000 woman years, in line with previously reported incidences of 1-6 per 10,000 woman years. Use of combined oral contraceptives increased the risk of venous thrombosis compared with non-use (relative risk 3.5, 95% confidence interval 2.9 to 4.3). The relative risk of venous thrombosis for combined oral contraceptives with 30-35 µg ethinylestradiol and gestodene, desogestrel, cyproterone acetate, or drospirenone were similar and about 50-80% higher than for combined oral contraceptives with levonorgestrel. A dose related effect of ethinylestradiol was observed for gestodene, desogestrel, and levonorgestrel, with higher doses being associated with higher thrombosis risk.ConclusionAll combined oral contraceptives investigated in this analysis were associated with an increased risk of venous thrombosis. The effect size depended both on the progestogen used and the dose of ethinylestradiol.

Project description:ObjectiveTo assess the risk of venous thrombosis in current users of non-oral hormonal contraception.DesignHistorical national registry based cohort study.SettingFour national registries in Denmark.ParticipantsAll Danish non-pregnant women aged 15-49 (n=1,626,158), free of previous thrombotic disease or cancer, were followed from 2001 to 2010.Main outcome measuresIncidence rate of venous thrombosis in users of transdermal, vaginal, intrauterine, or subcutaneous hormonal contraception, relative risk of venous thrombosis compared with non-users, and rate ratios of venous thrombosis in current users of non-oral products compared with the standard reference oral contraceptive with levonorgestrel and 30-40 µg oestrogen. Diagnoses were confirmed by at least four weeks of anticoagulation therapy after the diagnosis.ResultsWithin 9,429,128 woman years of observation, 5287 first ever venous thrombosis events were recorded, of which 3434 were confirmed. In non-users of hormonal contraception the incidence rate of confirmed events was 2.1 per 10,000 woman years. Compared with non-users of hormonal contraception, and after adjustment for age, calendar year, and education, the relative risk of confirmed venous thrombosis in users of transdermal combined contraceptive patches was 7.9 (95% confidence interval 3.5 to 17.7) and of the vaginal ring was 6.5 (4.7 to 8.9). The corresponding incidences per 10,000 exposure years were 9.7 and 7.8 events. The relative risk was increased in women who used subcutaneous implants (1.4, 0.6 to 3.4) but not in those who used the levonorgestrel intrauterine system (0.6, 0.4 to 0.8). Compared with users of combined oral contraceptives containing levonorgestrel, the adjusted relative risk of venous thrombosis in users of transdermal patches was 2.3 (1.0 to 5.2) and of the vaginal ring was 1.9 (1.3 to 2.7).ConclusionWomen who use transdermal patches or vaginal rings for contraception have a 7.9 and 6.5 times increased risk of confirmed venous thrombosis compared with non-users of hormonal contraception of the same age, corresponding to 9.7 and 7.8 events per 10,000 exposure years. The risk was slightly increased in women using subcutaneous implants but not in those using the levonorgestrel intrauterine system.

Project description:BackgroundRecurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) is common. Current guidelines suggest that patients with unprovoked VTE should continue anticoagulants unless they have a high bleeding risk, whereas all others can stop. Prediction models may refine this dichotomous distinction, but existing models apply only to patients with unprovoked first thrombosis. We aimed to develop a prediction model for all patients with first VTE, either provoked or unprovoked.Methods and findingsData were used from two population-based cohorts of patients with first VTE from the Netherlands (Multiple Environment and Genetic Assessment of Risk Factors for Venous Thrombosis [MEGA] follow-up study, performed from 1994 to 2009; model derivation; n = 3,750) and from Norway (Tromsø study, performed from 1999 to 2016; model validation; n = 663). Four versions of a VTE prediction model were developed: model A (clinical, laboratory, and genetic variables), model B (clinical variables and fewer laboratory markers), model C (clinical and genetic factors), and model D (clinical variables only). The outcome measure was recurrent VTE. To determine the discriminatory power, Harrell's C-statistic was calculated. A prognostic score was assessed for each patient. Kaplan-Meier plots for the observed recurrence risks were created in quintiles of the prognostic scores. For each patient, the 2-year predicted recurrence risk was calculated. Models C and D were validated in the Tromsø study. During 19,201 person-years of follow-up (median duration 5.7 years) in the MEGA study, 507 recurrences occurred. Model A had the highest predictive capability, with a C-statistic of 0.73 (95% CI 0.71-0.76). The discriminative performance was somewhat lower in the other models, with C-statistics of 0.72 for model B, 0.70 for model C, and 0.69 for model D. Internal validation showed a minimal degree of optimism bias. Models C and D were externally validated, with C-statistics of 0.64 (95% CI 0.62-0.66) and 0.65 (95% CI 0.63-0.66), respectively. According to model C, in 2,592 patients with provoked first events, 367 (15%) patients had a predicted 2-year risk of >10%, whereas in 1,082 patients whose first event was unprovoked, 484 (45%) had a predicted 2-year risk of <10%. A limitation of both cohorts is that laboratory measurements were missing in a substantial proportion of patients, which therefore were imputed.ConclusionsThe prediction model we propose applies to patients with provoked or unprovoked first VTE-except for patients with (a history of) cancer-allows refined risk stratification, and is easily usable. For optimal individualized treatment, a management study in which bleeding risks are also taken into account is necessary.

Project description:ObjectiveWhile D-dimer can successfully diagnose venous thrombosis due to its excellent negative predictive value (NPV), it cannot be used to detect venous thromboembolism (VTE) because of its low positive predictive value (PPV). This study aims to investigate if a combination of using D-dimer and fibrinogen can improve PPV in the VTE diagnosis.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed various data including D-dimer, fibrinogen, C-reactive protein, ultrasound, and others collected from 10775 traumatic fracture patients and categorized them into two groups of VTE and non-VTE. By comparing the difference between the two groups, we employ multiple logistic regression to find risk factors that are useful to detect VTE. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the diagnostic yield of using fibrinogen, D-dimer, and their combination, respectively. Also, these data were classified into quartiles by patient age. We perform the same analysis on the quartiles and find if the patient's age has an impact on diagnosing VTE.ResultsThe univariate analysis demonstrated that five factors of age, D-dimer, fibrinogen, C-reactive protein, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were significant to predict VTE. ROC showed that D-dimer was more useful than fibrinogen for the diagnosis of VTE, while the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.7296 for D-dimer and 0.5209 for fibrinogen. The cutoff point of D-dimer and fibrinogen was 424.89 ng/ml and 3.543 g/L, respectively. The specificity of fibrinogen was 0.777 which was better than D-dimer, while the sensitivity of fibrinogen was lower than that of D-dimer. Both PPV and NPV were similar in D-dimer and fibrinogen. The PPV of combining D-dimer and fibrinogen in ages Q3 (60 < age ≤ 70) and Q4 (age > 70) was better than using either D-dimer or fibrinogen.ConclusionsFibrinogen is a promising strategy for the diagnosis of subclinical VTE and postoperative VTE. In particular, a combination of D-dimer and fibrinogen can improve the PPV to successfully diagnose VTE in traumatic fracture patients who are more than 60 years old. Levels of Evidence. This assay is a diagnostic test at level II.

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Risk prediction of developing venous thrombosis in combined oral contraceptive users.

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Risk prediction of developing venous thrombosis in combined oral contraceptive users.

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