Dataset Information

Synchronous population dynamics in California butterflies explained by climatic forcing.

ABSTRACT: A long-standing challenge for population biology has been to understand why some species are characterized by populations that fluctuate in size independently, while populations of other species fluctuate synchronously across space. The effects of climatic variation and dispersal have been invoked to explain synchronous population dynamics, however an understanding of the relative influence of these drivers in natural populations is lacking. Here we compare support for dispersal- versus climate-driven models of interspecific variation in synchrony using 27 years of observations of 65 butterfly species at 10 sites spanning 2750?m of elevation in Northern California. The degree of spatial synchrony exhibited by each butterfly species was used as a response in a unique approach that allowed us to investigate whether interspecific variation in response to climate or dispersal propensity was most predictive of interspecific variation in synchrony. We report that variation in sensitivity to climate explained 50% of interspecific variation in synchrony, whereas variation in dispersal propensity explained 23%. Sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a primary driver of regional climate, was the best predictor of synchrony. Combining sensitivity to climate and dispersal propensity into a single model did not greatly increase model performance, confirming the primacy of climatic sensitivity for driving spatial synchrony in butterflies. Finally, we uncovered a relationship between spatial synchrony and population decline that is consistent with theory, but small in magnitude, which suggests that the degree to which populations fluctuate in synchrony is of limited use for understanding the ongoing decline of the Northern California butterfly fauna.

SUBMITTER: Pardikes NA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5541541 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Synchronous population dynamics in California butterflies explained by climatic forcing.

Pardikes Nicholas A NA Harrison Joshua G JG Shapiro Arthur M AM Forister Matthew L ML

Royal Society open science 20170719 7

A long-standing challenge for population biology has been to understand why some species are characterized by populations that fluctuate in size independently, while populations of other species fluctuate synchronously across space. The effects of climatic variation and dispersal have been invoked to explain synchronous population dynamics, however an understanding of the relative influence of these drivers in natural populations is lacking. Here we compare support for dispersal- versus climate- ...[more]

PMID: 28791146

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Project description:Detailed information on species' ecological niche characteristics that can be related to declines and extinctions is indispensable for a better understanding of the relationship between the occurrence and performance of wild species and their environment and, moreover, for an improved assessment of the impacts of global change. Knowledge on species characteristics such as habitat requirements is already available in the ecological literature for butterflies, but information about their climatic requirements is still lacking. Here we present a unique dataset on the climatic niche characteristics of 397 European butterflies representing 91% of the European species (see Appendix). These characteristics were obtained by combining detailed information on butterfly distributions in Europe (which also led to the 'Distribution Atlas of Butterflies in Europe') and the corresponding climatic conditions. The presented dataset comprises information for the position and breadth of the following climatic niche characteristics: mean annual temperature, range in annual temperature, growing degree days, annual precipitation sum, range in annual precipitation and soil water content. The climatic niche position is indicated by the median and mean value for each climate variable across a species' range, accompanied by the 95% confidence interval for the mean and the number of grid cells used for calculations. Climatic niche breadth is indicated by the standard deviation and the minimum and maximum values for each climatic variable across a species' range. Database compilation was based on high quality standards and the data are ready to use for a broad range of applications. It is already evident that the information provided in this dataset is of great relevance for basic and applied ecology. Based on the species temperature index (STI, i.e. the mean temperature value per species), the community temperature index (CTI, i.e. the average STI value across the species in a community) was recently adopted as an indicator of climate change impact on biodiversity by the pan-European framework supporting the Convention on Biological Diversity (Streamlining European Biodiversity Indicators 2010) and has already been used in several scientific publications. The application potential of this database ranges from theoretical aspects such as assessments of past niche evolution or analyses of trait interdependencies to the very applied aspects of measuring, monitoring and projecting historical, ongoing and potential future responses to climate change using butterflies as an indicator.

Dataset Information

Synchronous population dynamics in California butterflies explained by climatic forcing.

Publications

Synchronous population dynamics in California butterflies explained by climatic forcing.

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