Dataset Information

Modelling the burden of hepatitis C infection among people who inject drugs in Norway, 1973-2030.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Lack of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence data in (Norwegian) high-risk groups impedes the ability to make informed decisions on prevention measures. Thus we rely on modelling to estimate the incidence and burden of HCV infections.

Methods

We constructed a compartmental model for HCV infections in Norway among active and former people who inject drugs (PWIDs). We based yearly transition rates on literature. The model was fitted to absolute numbers of hepatitis C associated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death from national data sources (2000-2013). We estimated the number (95%CI) of HCV infections, cirrhosis, HCC and death and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) due to HCV infections in Norway, 1973-2030. We assumed treatment rates in the projected period were similar to those in 2013.

Results

The estimated proportion of chronic HCV (including those with cirrhosis and HCC) among PWIDs was stable from 2000 (49%; 4441/9108) to 2013 (43%; 3667/8587). We estimated that the incidence of HCV among PWIDs was 381 new infections in 2015. The estimated number of people with cirrhosis, HCC, and liver transplant was predicted to increase until 2022 (1537 people). DALYs among active PWIDs estimated to peak in 2006 (3480 DALYs) and decrease to 1870 DALYs in 2030. Chronic HCV infection contributes most to the total burden of HCV infection, and peaks at 1917 DALYs (52%) in 2007. The burden of HCV related to PWID increased until 2006 with 81/100,000 DALYs inhabitants and decreased to 68/100,000 DALYs in 2015.

Conclusion

The burden of HCV associated with injecting drug use is considerable, with chronic HCV infection contributing most to the total burden. This model can be used to estimate the impact of different interventions on the HCV burden in Norway and to perform cost-benefit analyses of various public health measures.

SUBMITTER: Meijerink H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5543437 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Modelling the burden of hepatitis C infection among people who inject drugs in Norway, 1973-2030.

Meijerink Hinta H White Richard A RA Løvlie Astrid A de Blasio Birgitte Freiesleben BF Dalgard Olav O Amundsen Ellen J EJ Melum Espen E Kløvstad Hilde H

BMC infectious diseases 20170803 1

<h4>Background</h4>Lack of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence data in (Norwegian) high-risk groups impedes the ability to make informed decisions on prevention measures. Thus we rely on modelling to estimate the incidence and burden of HCV infections.<h4>Methods</h4>We constructed a compartmental model for HCV infections in Norway among active and former people who inject drugs (PWIDs). We based yearly transition rates on literature. The model was fitted to absolute numbers of hepatitis C associa ...[more]

PMID: 28774261

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Project description:BackgroundApproximately 1% of adults in Thailand are infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). New direct-acting antiviral agents achieve sustained virologic responses in >95% of HCV-infected patients and are becoming available in countries around the world. To prepare for new HCV treatment options in Thailand, this study characterized HCV infections among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Bangkok.MethodsThe Bangkok Tenofovir Study (BTS) was a pre-exposure prophylaxis trial conducted among PWID, 2005-2013. Blood specimens were randomly selected from PWID screened for the BTS, to test for anti-HCV antibody and HCV RNA. The HVR1 region was amplified by polymerase chain reaction, using multiplex primer sets with unique identifier sequences; amplification products were pooled in sets of 25; and consensus sequencing was performed to characterize individual HCV genotypes.ResultsThe median age of 3679 participants tested for anti-HCV antibody was 31 years, 3016 (82.0%) were male and 447 (12.2%) were HIV infected. The prevalence of anti-HCV antibody was 44.3%. The adjusted odds of testing positive for anti-HCV antibody were higher in men (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4-4.3), those aged 40 years or older (aOR 2.7, 95% CI 2.1-3.5), those who had more than a primary school education (aOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.4-2.1), and those who tested HIV positive (aOR 5.2, 95% CI 3.7-7.4). HCV RNA was detected in 644 (81.3%) of the 792 anti-HCV antibody-positive specimens, yielding an HCV RNA-positive prevalence of 36.0% (95% CI 33.8-38.2). Among a random sample of 249 of the 644 specimens, 218 could be characterized, and the most common HCV subtypes were 1a (30.3%), 1b (12.8%), 3a (35.8%), 3b (6.9%) and 6n (8.7%).ConclusionThe prevalence of anti-HCV antibody among PWID was 44.3% and more than one third (36.0%) were HCV RNA positive. Genotypes 1, 3 and 6 accounted for all typable infections. As the government of Thailand considers introduction of direct-acting antiviral medications for people with hepatitis C, it will be important to ensure that the medications target these subtypes.

Project description:ImportanceThe success of direct-acting antiviral therapies for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection led the World Health Organization to set elimination targets by 2030. For the United States to achieve these benchmarks, public health responses must target high-risk populations, such as people who inject drugs (PWID), a group with high rates of HCV incidence and low rates of treatment uptake.ObjectiveTo evaluate potential improvements in the HCV care cascade among PWID, focusing on improved testing, treatment uptake, and access to harm reduction.Design, setting, and participantsThis decision analytic model used a differential equation-based dynamic transmission model based on data from New Hampshire, an illustrative state with a large number of PWID and limited HCV treatment infrastructure. Surveillance data through 2020 was used for model parameterization, and the final analysis was conducted in May 2021.Main outcomes and measuresModel forecasts of chronic HCV cases and advanced-stage HCV outcomes from 2022 to 2045.ResultsA total of 6 scenarios were tested: (1) the base case, (2) improved harm reduction, (3) improved testing, (4) improved treatment, (5) improved testing and treatment, and (6) improved testing, treatment, and harm reduction. All scenarios with improved testing, treatment uptake, and/or access to harm reduction were associated with decreases in forecasted HCV prevalence and HCV-associated mortality compared with the base case. Improving harm reduction, testing, and treatment individually were forecast to reduce prevalence of HCV in 2045 from 69.7% in the base case to 62.8%, 45.7%, and 35.5%, respectively. Combining treatment and testing improvements was associated with a 2045 prevalence of 0.3%; adding harm reduction improvements was associated with further reductions in prevalence forecasts (to 0.2%), with fewer total treatments (10 960 vs 13 219 from 2022-2045).Conclusions and relevanceIn this modeling study, no single intervention was projected to achieve World Health Organization HCV elimination targets. Scenarios with improvements in both testing and treatment were associated with a prevalence of less than 3% by 2030 and achieved elimination targets. Adding improvements in harm reduction was associated with faster reductions in prevalence and fewer treatments.

Dataset Information

Modelling the burden of hepatitis C infection among people who inject drugs in Norway, 1973-2030.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Modelling the burden of hepatitis C infection among people who inject drugs in Norway, 1973-2030.

Similar Datasets

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