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Performance of objective functions and optimisation procedures for parameter estimation in system biology models.

ABSTRACT: Mathematical modelling of signalling pathways aids experimental investigation in system and synthetic biology. Ever increasing data availability prompts the development of large dynamic models with numerous parameters. In this paper, we investigate how the number of unknown parameters affects the convergence of three frequently used optimisation algorithms and four objective functions. We compare objective functions that use data-driven normalisation of the simulations with those that use scaling factors. The data-driven normalisation of the simulation approach implies that simulations are normalised in the same way as the data, making both directly comparable. The scaling factor approach, which is commonly used for parameter estimation in dynamic systems, introduces scaling factors that multiply the simulations to convert them to the scale of the data. Here we show that the scaling factor approach increases, compared to data-driven normalisation of the simulations, the degree of practical non-identifiability, defined as the number of directions in the parameter space, along which parameters are not identifiable. Further, the results indicate that data-driven normalisation of the simulations greatly improve the speed of convergence of all tested algorithms when the overall number of unknown parameters is relatively large (74 parameters in our test problems). Data-driven normalisation of the simulations also markedly improve the performance of the non-gradient-based algorithm tested even when the number of unknown parameters is relatively small (10 parameters in our test problems). As the models and the unknown parameters increase in size, the data-driven normalisation of the simulation approach can be the preferred option, because it does not aggravate non-identifiability and allows for obtaining parameter estimates in a reasonable amount of time.

SUBMITTER: Degasperi A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5548920 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundMathematical models play a key role in systems biology: they summarize the currently available knowledge in a way that allows to make experimentally verifiable predictions. Model calibration consists of finding the parameters that give the best fit to a set of experimental data, which entails minimizing a cost function that measures the goodness of this fit. Most mathematical models in systems biology present three characteristics which make this problem very difficult to solve: they are highly non-linear, they have a large number of parameters to be estimated, and the information content of the available experimental data is frequently scarce. Hence, there is a need for global optimization methods capable of solving this problem efficiently.ResultsA new approach for parameter estimation of large scale models, called Cooperative Enhanced Scatter Search (CeSS), is presented. Its key feature is the cooperation between different programs ("threads") that run in parallel in different processors. Each thread implements a state of the art metaheuristic, the enhanced Scatter Search algorithm (eSS). Cooperation, meaning information sharing between threads, modifies the systemic properties of the algorithm and allows to speed up performance. Two parameter estimation problems involving models related with the central carbon metabolism of E. coli which include different regulatory levels (metabolic and transcriptional) are used as case studies. The performance and capabilities of the method are also evaluated using benchmark problems of large-scale global optimization, with excellent results.ConclusionsThe cooperative CeSS strategy is a general purpose technique that can be applied to any model calibration problem. Its capability has been demonstrated by calibrating two large-scale models of different characteristics, improving the performance of previously existing methods in both cases. The cooperative metaheuristic presented here can be easily extended to incorporate other global and local search solvers and specific structural information for particular classes of problems.

Project description:BackgroundMany mathematical models have now been employed across every area of systems biology. These models increasingly involve large numbers of unknown parameters, have complex structure which can result in substantial evaluation time relative to the needs of the analysis, and need to be compared to observed data of various forms. The correct analysis of such models usually requires a global parameter search, over a high dimensional parameter space, that incorporates and respects the most important sources of uncertainty. This can be an extremely difficult task, but it is essential for any meaningful inference or prediction to be made about any biological system. It hence represents a fundamental challenge for the whole of systems biology.MethodsBayesian statistical methodology for the uncertainty analysis of complex models is introduced, which is designed to address the high dimensional global parameter search problem. Bayesian emulators that mimic the systems biology model but which are extremely fast to evaluate are embeded within an iterative history match: an efficient method to search high dimensional spaces within a more formal statistical setting, while incorporating major sources of uncertainty.ResultsThe approach is demonstrated via application to a model of hormonal crosstalk in Arabidopsis root development, which has 32 rate parameters, for which we identify the sets of rate parameter values that lead to acceptable matches between model output and observed trend data. The multiple insights into the model's structure that this analysis provides are discussed. The methodology is applied to a second related model, and the biological consequences of the resulting comparison, including the evaluation of gene functions, are described.ConclusionsBayesian uncertainty analysis for complex models using both emulators and history matching is shown to be a powerful technique that can greatly aid the study of a large class of systems biology models. It both provides insight into model behaviour and identifies the sets of rate parameters of interest.

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Performance of objective functions and optimisation procedures for parameter estimation in system biology models.

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