Dataset Information

Assessing public forecasts to encourage accountability: The case of MIT's Technology Review.

ABSTRACT: Although high degrees of reliability have been found for many types of forecasts purportedly due to the existence of accountability, public forecasts of technology are rarely assessed and continue to have a poor reputation. This paper's analysis of forecasts made by MIT's Technology Review provides a rare assessment and thus a means to encourage accountability. It first shows that few of the predicted "breakthrough technologies" currently have large markets. Only four have sales greater than $10 billion while eight technologies not predicted by Technology Review have sales greater than $10 billion including three with greater than $100 billion and one other with greater than $50 billion. Second, possible reasons for these poor forecasts are then discussed including an over emphasis on the science-based process of technology change, sometimes called the linear model of innovation. Third, this paper describes a different model of technology change, one that is widely used by private companies and that explains the emergence of those technologies that have greater than $10 billion in sales. Fourth, technology change and forecasts are discussed in terms of cognitive biases and mental models.

SUBMITTER: Funk J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5552300 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Assessing public forecasts to encourage accountability: The case of MIT's Technology Review.

Funk Jeffrey J

PloS one 20170810 8

Although high degrees of reliability have been found for many types of forecasts purportedly due to the existence of accountability, public forecasts of technology are rarely assessed and continue to have a poor reputation. This paper's analysis of forecasts made by MIT's Technology Review provides a rare assessment and thus a means to encourage accountability. It first shows that few of the predicted "breakthrough technologies" currently have large markets. Only four have sales greater than $10 ...[more]

PMID: 28797114

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundTechnology-related research on people with dementia and their carers often aims to enable people to remain living at home for longer and prevent unnecessary hospital admissions. To develop person-centered, effective, and ethical research, patient and public involvement (PPI) is necessary, although it may be perceived as more difficult with this cohort. With recent and rapid expansions in health and care-related technology, this review explored how and with what impact collaborations between researchers and stakeholders such as people with dementia and their carers have taken place.ObjectiveThis review aims to describe approaches to PPI used to date in technology-related dementia research, along with the barriers and facilitators and impact of PPI in this area.MethodsA scoping review of literature related to dementia, technology, and PPI was conducted using MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Embase, and CINAHL. Papers were screened for inclusion by 2 authors. Data were then extracted using a predesigned data extraction table by the same 2 authors. A third author supported the resolution of any conflicts at each stage. Barriers to and facilitators of undertaking PPI were then examined and themed.ResultsThe search yielded 1694 papers, with 31 (1.83%) being analyzed after screening. Most (21/31, 68%) did not make clear distinctions between activities undertaken as PPI and those undertaken by research participants, and as such, their involvement did not fit easily into the National Institute for Health and Care Research definition of PPI. Most of this mixed involvement focused on reviewing or evaluating technology prototypes. A range of approaches were described, most typically using focus groups or co-design workshops. In total, 29% (9/31) described involvement at multiple stages throughout the research cycle, sometimes with evidence of sharing decision-making power. Some (23/31, 74%) commented on barriers to or facilitators of effective PPI. The challenges identified often regarded issues of working with people with significant cognitive impairments and pressures on time and resources. Where reported, the impact of PPI was largely reported as positive, including the experiences for patient and public partners, the impact on research quality, and the learning experience it provided for researchers. Only 4 (13%) papers used formal methods for evaluating impact.ConclusionsResearchers often involve people with dementia and other stakeholders in technology research. At present, involvement is often limited in scope despite aspirations for high levels of involvement and partnership working. Involving people with dementia, their carers, and other stakeholders can have a positive impact on research, patient and public partners, and researchers. Wider reporting of methods and facilitative strategies along with more formalized methods for recording and reporting on meaningful impact would be helpful so that all those involved-researchers, patients, and other stakeholders-can learn how we can best conduct research together.

Dataset Information

Assessing public forecasts to encourage accountability: The case of MIT's Technology Review.

Publications

Assessing public forecasts to encourage accountability: The case of MIT's Technology Review.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets