Dataset Information

Early life predictors of adolescent suicidal thoughts and adverse outcomes in two population-based cohort studies.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Understanding suicidality has proven challenging given the complex aetiology in early childhood. Being able to accurately predict groups at increased risk of developing suicidal thoughts may aid in the development of targeted prevention programs that mitigate increased vulnerability. Further, the predictors of suicidal thoughts may be shared with other outcomes in adolescence. Previous research has linked many factors to suicidality, so the objective of this study was to consider how these factors may act together to increase risk of suicidal thoughts and other non-mental health outcomes.

Methods

Two longitudinal datasets were used in this analysis: the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY) and the Avon Longitudinal Survey of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). A Classification and Regression Tree model comprised of 75 factors describing early childhood was constructed to identify subgroups of adolescents at high risk of suicidal thoughts in the NLSCY and was validated in ALSPAC. These subgroups were investigated to see if they also had elevated rates of antisocial behaviour, substance misuse, poor physical health, poor mental health, risky health behaviours, and/or poor academic performance.

Results

The sensitivity was calculated to be 22·7%, specificity was 89·2%, positive predictive value 17·8%, and negative predictive value 91·8% and had similar accuracy in the validation dataset. The models were better at predicting other adverse outcomes compared to suicidal thoughts.

Conclusion

There are groups of risk factors present in early life that can predict higher risk of suicidality in adolescence. Notably, these factors were also predictive of a range of adverse outcomes in adolescence.

SUBMITTER: Dykxhoorn J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5552309 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Early life predictors of adolescent suicidal thoughts and adverse outcomes in two population-based cohort studies.

Dykxhoorn Jennifer J Hatcher Simon S Roy-Gagnon Marie-Hélène MH Colman Ian I

PloS one 20170810 8

<h4>Background</h4>Understanding suicidality has proven challenging given the complex aetiology in early childhood. Being able to accurately predict groups at increased risk of developing suicidal thoughts may aid in the development of targeted prevention programs that mitigate increased vulnerability. Further, the predictors of suicidal thoughts may be shared with other outcomes in adolescence. Previous research has linked many factors to suicidality, so the objective of this study was to consi ...[more]

PMID: 28797081

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Project description:Substantial numbers of adolescents self-harm, but the majority of cases do not reach the attention of medical services, making community studies essential. The prevalence of suicidal thoughts and plans at this age, and the inter-relationships between suicidal thoughts, plans and self-harm remain largely unexplored.Cross-sectional analysis of self-reported questionnaire data collected from members of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort, England. Respondents (n?=?4810) were aged 16-17?years old and have been followed up since birth.Altogether 905 (18.8%) respondents had ever self-harmed. The prevalence of lifetime self-harm was higher in females (25.6%) than males (9.1%). The most commonly used method was self-cutting: this was used alone or in combination in 73.5% of episodes, compared to 10.0% who took overdoses alone or in combination with other methods. Of those who reported self-harm, 25.3% wanted to die during the most recent episode. Concurrent depression was associated with a greatly increased risk of self-harm (OR 5.43). Only 12.4% of participants sought medical help following their most recent episode of self-harm, although this figure was higher (30.1%) where self-harm was carried out with desire to die. Of the whole sample, 15.8% had ever thought of killing themselves, and 4.3% had ever made plans to kill themselves. Compared to those who had never self-harmed, those who had self-harmed but not wanted to die during the most recent episode were at increased risk of ever having had suicidal thoughts (37.6% compared to 7.8% ?2 =102.3, p?<?0.001) and ever making suicidal plans (8.7% compared to 0.7%, ?2 =166.9, p?<?0.001). As the frequency of self-harm increased, so did the risk of suicidal thoughts and plans.Self-harm and suicidal thoughts are common among 16/17?year olds. Although the majority of self-harm behaviour is not accompanied by a desire to die, all self-harm regardless of motivation is associated with increased risk of suicidal thoughts and plans, particularly when it is carried out repeatedly.

Project description:BackgroundSuicidal thoughts and non-suicidal self-harm are common in adolescents and are strongly associated with suicide attempts. We aimed to identify predictors of future suicide attempts in these high-risk groups.MethodsParticipants were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a population-based birth cohort study in the UK. The sample included 456 adolescents who reported suicidal thoughts and 569 who reported non-suicidal self-harm at 16 years of age. Logistic regression analyses were used to explore associations between a wide range of prospectively recorded risk factors and future suicide attempts, assessed at the age of 21 years.Findings38 (12%) of 310 participants with suicidal thoughts and 46 (12%) of 380 participants who had engaged in non-suicidal self-harm reported having attempted suicide for the first time by the follow-up at 21 years of age. Among participants with suicidal thoughts, the strongest predictors of transition to attempts were non-suicidal self-harm (odds ratio [OR] 2·78, 95% CI 1·35-5·74; p=0·0059), cannabis use (2·61, 1·11-6·14; p=0·029), other illicit drug use (2·47, 1·02-5·96; p=0·045), exposure to self-harm (family 2·03, 0·93-4·44, p=0·076; friend 1·85, 0·93-3·69, p=0·081), and higher levels of the personality type intellect/openness (1·62, 1·06-2·46; p=0·025). Among participants with non-suicidal self-harm at baseline, the strongest predictors were cannabis use (OR 2·14, 95% CI 1·04-4·41; p=0·038), other illicit drug use (2·17, 1·10-4·27; p=0·025), sleep problems (waking in the night 1·91, 0·95-3·84, p=0·069; insufficient sleep 1·97, 1·02-3·81, p=0·043), and lower levels of the personality type extraversion (0·71, 0·49-1·03; p=0·068).InterpretationMost adolescents who think about suicide or engage in non-suicidal self-harm will not make an attempt on their life. Many commonly cited risk factors were not associated with transition to suicide attempt among these high-risk groups. Our findings suggest that asking about substance use, non-suicidal self-harm, sleep, personality traits, and exposure to self-harm could inform risk assessments, and might help clinicians to identify which adolescents are at greatest risk of attempting suicide in the future.FundingAmerican Foundation for Suicide Prevention, National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the University Hospitals Bristol National Health Service Foundation Trust, and the University of Bristol.

Dataset Information

Early life predictors of adolescent suicidal thoughts and adverse outcomes in two population-based cohort studies.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Early life predictors of adolescent suicidal thoughts and adverse outcomes in two population-based cohort studies.

Similar Datasets

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