Dataset Information

Planning for Uncertainty and Fallbacks Can Increase the Number of Transplants in a Kidney-Paired Donation Program.

ABSTRACT: A kidney-paired donation (KPD) pool consists of transplant candidates and their incompatible donors, along with nondirected donors (NDDs). In a match run, exchanges are arranged among pairs in the pool via cycles, as well as chains created from NDDs. A problem of importance is how to arrange cycles and chains to optimize the number of transplants. We outline and examine, through example and by simulation, four schemes for selecting potential matches in a realistic model of a KPD system; proposed schemes take account of probabilities that chosen transplants may not be completed as well as allowing for contingency plans when the optimal solution fails. Using data on candidate/donor pairs and NDDs from the Alliance for Paired Donation, the simulations extend over 8 match runs, with 30 pairs and 1 NDD added between each run. Schemes that incorporate uncertainties and fallbacks into the selection process yield substantially more transplants on average, increasing the number of transplants by as much as 40% compared to a standard selection scheme. The gain depends on the degree of uncertainty in the system. The proposed approaches can be easily implemented and provide substantial advantages over current KPD matching algorithms.

SUBMITTER: Bray M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5559873 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Planning for Uncertainty and Fallbacks Can Increase the Number of Transplants in a Kidney-Paired Donation Program.

Bray M M Wang W W Song P X-K PX Leichtman A B AB Rees M A MA Ashby V B VB Eikstadt R R Goulding A A Kalbfleisch J D JD

American journal of transplantation : official journal of the American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons 20150804 10

A kidney-paired donation (KPD) pool consists of transplant candidates and their incompatible donors, along with nondirected donors (NDDs). In a match run, exchanges are arranged among pairs in the pool via cycles, as well as chains created from NDDs. A problem of importance is how to arrange cycles and chains to optimize the number of transplants. We outline and examine, through example and by simulation, four schemes for selecting potential matches in a realistic model of a KPD system; proposed ...[more]

PMID: 26372837

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Project description:Background and objectivesIn the United States, kidney paired donation networks have facilitated an increasing proportion of kidney transplants annually, but transplant outcome differences beyond 5 years between paired donation and other living donor kidney transplant recipients have not been well described.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsUsing registry-linked data, we compared National Kidney Registry (n=2363) recipients to control kidney transplant recipients (n=54,497) (February 2008 to December 2017). We estimated the risk of death-censored graft failure and mortality using inverse probability of treatment weighted Cox regression. The parsimonious model adjusted for recipient factors (age, sex, black, race, body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, diabetes, previous transplant, preemptive transplant, public insurance, hepatitis C, eGFR, antibody depleting induction therapy, year of transplant), donor factors (age, sex, Hispanic ethnicity, body mass index ≥30 kg/m2), and transplant factors (zero HLA mismatch).ResultsNational Kidney Registry recipients were more likely to be women, black, older, on public insurance, have panel reactive antibodies >80%, spend longer on dialysis, and be previous transplant recipients. National Kidney Registry recipients were followed for a median 3.7 years (interquartile range, 2.1-5.6; maximum 10.9 years). National Kidney Registry recipients had similar graft failure (5% versus 6%; log-rank P=0.2) and mortality (9% versus 10%; log-rank P=0.4) incidence compared with controls during follow-up. After adjustment for donor, recipient, and transplant factors, there no detectable difference in graft failure (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.77 to 1.18; P=0.6) or mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.70 to 1.07; P=0.2) between National Kidney Registry and control recipients.ConclusionsEven after transplanting patients with greater risk factors for worse post-transplant outcomes, nationalized paired donation results in equivalent outcomes when compared with control living donor kidney transplant recipients.

Project description:BackgroundCompatible pair participation in kidney paired donation (KPD) may increase the likelihood of finding suitable matches for all registered pairs. Retrospective studies have shown variable enthusiasm for participating in KPD in compatible pairs.ObjectiveThe study objective was to gather potential living donor (PLD) and transplant candidate (TC) perspectives on compatible pair participation in KPD.DesignSurveys and qualitative interviews.SettingThree transplant programs in Canada: Centre hospitalier de l'Université de Montréal in Montreal (Québec), Vancouver General Hospital, and St. Paul's Hospital in Vancouver (British Columbia).PatientsBoth PLDs and TCs undergoing evaluation for donation/transplantation between 2016 and 2018 at 3 transplant programs in Canada.MethodsDescriptive statistical analysis was performed for the results of the survey and thematic and content analysis method was used for the content of the qualitative interviews.ResultsA total of 116 PLDs and 111 TCs completed surveys and an additional 18 PLDs and 17 TCs underwent semi-directed interviews. Of those surveyed, 61.2% of PLDs and 76.6% of TCs reported a willingness to participate in KPD as a compatible pair. The possibility of a more optimally matched kidney for the TC and policies ensuring prioritization of the TC for repeat transplantation in the event of early graft failure increased willingness to participate in KPD. Major concerns expressed during the interviews included the desire to retain the emotional bond of directed donation, the fear of chain breaks or donor reneging, delays in transplantation, and additional travel associated with participation in KPD.LimitationThe limitations of this study are that it was conducted in only 3 Canadian transplant programs and that the interviews and surveys were in French and in English. As a consequence, the results may not be reflective of the views of individuals not living in these 2 provinces and from ethnic minority populations.ConclusionMost of the compatible PLDs and TCs surveyed were willing to participate in KPD. Ensuring timely transplantation and a more optimal match for TCs and offering a policy of reciprocity to ensure timely repeat transplantation for compatible recipients if their allograft fails post KPD transplant may further increase compatible pair participation in KPD.

Dataset Information

Planning for Uncertainty and Fallbacks Can Increase the Number of Transplants in a Kidney-Paired Donation Program.

Publications

Planning for Uncertainty and Fallbacks Can Increase the Number of Transplants in a Kidney-Paired Donation Program.

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