Dataset Information

Methods for estimating disease transmission rates: Evaluating the precision of Poisson regression and two novel methods.

ABSTRACT: Precise estimates of disease transmission rates are critical for epidemiological simulation models. Most often these rates must be estimated from longitudinal field data, which are costly and time-consuming to conduct. Consequently, measures to reduce cost like increased sampling intervals or subsampling of the population are implemented. To assess the impact of such measures we implement two different SIS models to simulate disease transmission: A simple closed population model and a realistic dairy herd including population dynamics. We analyze the accuracy of different methods for estimating the transmission rate. We use data from the two simulation models and vary the sampling intervals and the size of the population sampled. We devise two new methods to determine transmission rate, and compare these to the frequently used Poisson regression method in both epidemic and endemic situations. For most tested scenarios these new methods perform similar or better than Poisson regression, especially in the case of long sampling intervals. We conclude that transmission rate estimates are easily biased, which is important to take into account when using these rates in simulation models.

SUBMITTER: Kirkeby C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5572698 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Methods for estimating disease transmission rates: Evaluating the precision of Poisson regression and two novel methods.

Kirkeby Carsten C Halasa Tariq T Gussmann Maya M Toft Nils N Græsbøll Kaare K

Scientific reports 20170825 1

Precise estimates of disease transmission rates are critical for epidemiological simulation models. Most often these rates must be estimated from longitudinal field data, which are costly and time-consuming to conduct. Consequently, measures to reduce cost like increased sampling intervals or subsampling of the population are implemented. To assess the impact of such measures we implement two different SIS models to simulate disease transmission: A simple closed population model and a realistic ...[more]

PMID: 28842576

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Project description:BackgroundTsetse flies are the major vectors of human trypanosomiasis of the form Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense and T.b.gambiense. They are widely spread across the sub-Saharan Africa and rendering a lot of challenges to both human and animal health. This stresses effective agricultural production and productivity in Africa. Delimiting the extent and magnitude of tsetse coverage has been a challenge over decades due to limited resources and unsatisfactory technology. In a bid to overcome these limitations, this study attempted to explore modelling skills that can be applied to spatially estimate tsetse abundance in the country using limited tsetse data and a set of remote-sensed environmental variables.MethodologyEntomological data for the period 2008-2018 as used in the model were obtained from various sources and systematically assembled using a structured protocol. Data harmonisation for the purposes of responsiveness and matching was carried out. The key tool for tsetse trapping was itemized as pyramidal trap in many instances and biconical trap in others. Based on the spatially explicit assembled data, we ran two regression models; standard Poisson and Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP), to explore the associations between tsetse abundance in Uganda and several environmental and climatic covariates. The covariate data were constituted largely by satellite sensor data in form of meteorological and vegetation surrogates in association with elevation and land cover data. We finally used the Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model to predict tsetse abundance due to its superiority over the standard Poisson after model fitting and testing using the Vuong Non-Nested statistic.ResultsA total of 1,187 tsetse sampling points were identified and considered as representative for the country. The model results indicated the significance and level of responsiveness of each covariate in influencing tsetse abundance across the study area. Woodland vegetation, elevation, temperature, rainfall, and dry season normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) were important in determining tsetse abundance and spatial distribution at varied scales. The resultant prediction map shows scaled tsetse abundance with estimated fitted numbers ranging from 0 to 59 flies per trap per day (FTD). Tsetse abundance was found to be largest at low elevations, in areas of high vegetative activity, in game parks, forests and shrubs during the dry season. There was very limited responsiveness of selected predictors to tsetse abundance during the wet season, matching the known fact that tsetse disperse most significantly during wet season.ConclusionsA methodology was advanced to enable compilation of entomological data for 10 years, which supported the generation of tsetse abundance maps for Uganda through modelling. Our findings indicate the spatial distribution of the G. f. fuscipes as; low 0-5 FTD (48%), medium 5.1-35 FTD (18%) and high 35.1-60 FTD (34%) grounded on seasonality. This approach, amidst entomological data shortages due to limited resources and absence of expertise, can be adopted to enable mapping of the vector to provide better decision support towards designing and implementing targeted tsetse and tsetse-transmitted African trypanosomiasis control strategies.

Project description:BackgroundGene expression profiling has benefited medicine by providing clinically relevant insights at the molecular candidate and systems levels. However, to adopt a more 'precision' approach that integrates individual variability including 'omics data into risk assessments, diagnoses, and therapeutic decision making, whole transcriptome expression needs to be interpreted meaningfully for single subjects. We propose an "all-against-one" framework that uses biological replicates in isogenic conditions for testing differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in a single subject (ss) in the absence of an appropriate external reference standard or replicates. To evaluate our proposed "all-against-one" framework, we construct reference standards (RSs) with five conventional replicate-anchored analyses (NOISeq, DEGseq, edgeR, DESeq, DESeq2) and the remainder were treated separately as single-subject sample pairs for ss analyses (without replicates).ResultsEight ss methods (NOISeq, DEGseq, edgeR, mixture model, DESeq, DESeq2, iDEG, and ensemble) for identifying genes with differential expression were compared in Yeast (parental line versus snf2 deletion mutant; n = 42/condition) and a MCF7 breast-cancer cell line (baseline versus stimulated with estradiol; n = 7/condition). Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) and precision-recall plots were determined for eight ss methods against each of the five RSs in both datasets. Consistent with prior analyses of these data, ~ 50% and ~ 15% DEGs were obtained in Yeast and MCF7 datasets respectively, regardless of the RSs method. NOISeq, edgeR, and DESeq were the most concordant for creating a RS. Single-subject versions of NOISeq, DEGseq, and an ensemble learner achieved the best median ROC-area-under-the-curve to compare two transcriptomes without replicates regardless of the RS method and dataset (> 90% in Yeast, > 0.75 in MCF7). Further, distinct specific single-subject methods perform better according to different proportions of DEGs.ConclusionsThe "all-against-one" framework provides a honest evaluation framework for single-subject DEG studies since these methods are evaluated, by design, against reference standards produced by unrelated DEG methods. The ss-ensemble method was the only one to reliably produce higher accuracies in all conditions tested in this conservative evaluation framework. However, single-subject methods for identifying DEGs from paired samples need improvement, as no method performed with precision> 90% and obtained moderate levels of recall. http://www.lussiergroup.org/publications/EnsembleBiomarker.

Dataset Information

Methods for estimating disease transmission rates: Evaluating the precision of Poisson regression and two novel methods.

Publications

Methods for estimating disease transmission rates: Evaluating the precision of Poisson regression and two novel methods.

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