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Evidence of cryptic incidence in childhood diseases.

ABSTRACT: Persistence and extinction are key processes in infectious disease dynamics that, owing to incomplete reporting, are seldom directly observable. For fully immunizing diseases, reporting probabilities can be readily estimated from demographic records and case reports. Yet reporting probabilities are not sufficient to unambiguously reconstruct disease incidence from case reports. Here, we focus on disease presence (i.e. marginal probability of non-zero incidence), which provides an upper bound on the marginal probability of disease extinction. We examine measles and pertussis in pre-vaccine era United States (US) cities, and describe a conserved scaling relationship between population size, reporting probability and observed presence (i.e. non-zero case reports). We use this relationship to estimate disease presence given perfect reporting, and define cryptic presence as the difference between estimated and observed presence. We estimate that, in early twentieth century US cities, pertussis presence was higher than measles presence across a range of population sizes, and that cryptic presence was common in small cities with imperfect reporting. While the methods employed here are specific to fully immunizing diseases, our results suggest that cryptic incidence deserves careful attention, particularly in diseases with low case counts, poor reporting and longer infectious periods.

SUBMITTER: Gunning CE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5577489 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evidence of cryptic incidence in childhood diseases.

Gunning Christian E CE Ferrari Matthew J MJ Erhardt Erik B EB Wearing Helen J HJ

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20170801 1861

Persistence and extinction are key processes in infectious disease dynamics that, owing to incomplete reporting, are seldom directly observable. For fully immunizing diseases, reporting probabilities can be readily estimated from demographic records and case reports. Yet reporting probabilities are not sufficient to unambiguously reconstruct disease incidence from case reports. Here, we focus on disease presence (i.e. marginal probability of non-zero incidence), which provides an upper bound on ...[more]

PMID: 28855364

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Project description:BackgroundSocioeconomic position (SEP) powerfully affects health status in the childhood population. However, the knowledge of which diseases are more affected by SEP and whose outcomes could be improved by having a more equitable society remains uncertain on a population basis.MethodsWe measured socioeconomic and gender inequalities in the pre-COVID-19 era for 29 diseases in the entire childhood population in Catalonia to identify which diseases are most impacted by inequalities. This population-based study included 1,449,816 children under 15 years old from 2014 to 2017 (48.52% girls) and each of their registered diagnoses within the Catalonia National Health System. We calculated frequency measures by SEP and their sex ratios for each disease. We estimated four regression-based inequality measures: slope index of inequality, relative index of inequality (RII), absolute population-attributable fraction, and population-attributable fraction.ResultsTwenty-five of the 29 diseases examined showed SEP inequalities. The diseases with the greatest inequalities in both sexes were tuberculosis, obesity, adjustment and anxiety disorders, essential hypertension, poisoning, short gestation, low birth weight, foetal growth retardation and intrauterine hypoxia and birth asphyxia and trauma (RII ≥ 2.0); only food allergy showed the opposite pattern (RII < 1.0). Overall, 80,188 (7.80%) of the disease events in boys and 74,921 (8.88%) in girls would be avoided if all children had the same disease rate as those in the medium-high SEP group, with tuberculosis, intrauterine hypoxia and birth asphyxia and trauma, obesity, and short gestation, low birth weight, foetal growth retardation being those that could be reduced the most in relative terms, and dermatitis, injuries, acute bronquitis, and being overweight those that could be reduced the most in absolute terms. Girls present higher RII than boys for respiratory allergy, asthma, dermatitis, being overweight, and obesity (p < 0.05). In contrast, boys showed higher RII compared to girls only in congenital anomalies (p < 0.05).ConclusionsSocioeconomic and gender inequalities are widely present in childhood health. This indicates that SEP plays a common role in their development although it varies in magnitude according to each disease. It is also a phenomenon that comprises all SEP groups in society. Action needs to be taken to ensure a fairer start in life in terms of health.

Project description:Despite the widespread availability of vaccines, the incidence of vaccine-preventable childhood diseases (VPCD) started to grow in recent years. The aim of the study was to compare the annual incidence of selected VPCDs in the EU (European Union) and EFTA (European Free Trade Association) countries in the period of the last 5 years (2014-2019 or other intervals, depending on data availability), and the country-specific vaccine schedules. VPCD incidence rates in Europe were based on "The Surveillance Atlas of Infectious Diseases" by the ECDC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control); vaccination schedules were based on ECDC reports. The obligation to vaccinate was not universal, and it generally only applied to two preparations: the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine and the one against polio. During the study, the situation associated with mumps did not change or improve in individual countries; the median incidence amounted to 30 cases. The median incidence associated with rubella amounted to 1 case, but in a few countries, it grew very rapidly, i.e., in Germany, Italy, and Romania; in Poland, the incidence was clearly decreasing, from 5923 to 1532 cases. The most dynamic situation concerned measles. The total median was 2.4 cases per 100,000 population; the only one country with falling incidence was Germany. The diseases associated with Streptococcus pneumoniae and Neisseria meningitidis remained at a stable level in all analyzed countries. Vaccine schedules differ among the countries, so does the epidemiological situation of selected diseases. Morbidity on measles was the most disturbing phenomenon: the incidence rate increased in almost 40% of all countries, regardless of the obligation to vaccinate. The increasing incidence of VPCD may be due to anti-vaccine movements, the activity of which is often caused by mistrust and spreading misinformation. In order to better prevent the increase in morbidity, standardization of vaccine schedules and documentation should be considered in the EU countries.

Dataset Information

Evidence of cryptic incidence in childhood diseases.

Publications

Evidence of cryptic incidence in childhood diseases.

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