Dataset Information

Biometeorological Assessment of Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures in Helsinki Region, Finland, 1972-2014.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is expected to increase heat-related and decrease cold-related mortality. The extent of acclimatization of the population to gradually-changing thermal conditions is not well understood. We aimed to define the relationship between mortality and temperature extremes in different age groups in the Helsinki-Uusimaa hospital district in Southern Finland, and changes in sensitivity of the population to temperature extremes over the period of 1972-2014. Time series of mortality were made stationary with a method that utilizes 365-day Gaussian smoothing, removes trends and seasonality, and gives relative mortality as the result. We used generalized additive models to examine the association of relative mortality to physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) and to air temperature in the 43-year study period and in two 21-year long sub-periods (1972-1992 and 1994-2014). We calculated the mean values of relative mortality in percentile-based categories of thermal indices. Relative mortality increases more in the hot than in the cold tail of the thermal distribution. The increase is strongest among those aged 75 years and older, but is somewhat elevated even among those younger than 65 years. Above the 99th percentile of the PET distribution, the all-aged relative mortality decreased in time from 18.3 to 8.6%. Among those ?75 years old, the decrease in relative mortality between the sub-periods were found to be above the 90th percentile. The dependence of relative mortality on cold extremes was negligible, except among those ?75 years old, in the latter period. Thus, heat-related mortality is also remarkable in Finland, but the sensitivity to heat stress has decreased over the decades.

SUBMITTER: Ruuhela R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5580646 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Biometeorological Assessment of Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures in Helsinki Region, Finland, 1972-2014.

Ruuhela Reija R Jylhä Kirsti K Lanki Timo T Tiittanen Pekka P Matzarakis Andreas A

International journal of environmental research and public health 20170822 8

Climate change is expected to increase heat-related and decrease cold-related mortality. The extent of acclimatization of the population to gradually-changing thermal conditions is not well understood. We aimed to define the relationship between mortality and temperature extremes in different age groups in the Helsinki-Uusimaa hospital district in Southern Finland, and changes in sensitivity of the population to temperature extremes over the period of 1972-2014. Time series of mortality were mad ...[more]

PMID: 28829351

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Project description:The aim of this study was to assess regional differences in temperature-mortality relationships across 21 hospital districts in Finland. The temperature dependence of the daily number of all-cause, all-aged deaths during 2000-2014 was studied in each hospital district by using daily mean temperatures, spatially averaged across each hospital district, to describe exposure to heat stress and cold stress. The relationships were modelled using distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). In a simple model version, no delayed impacts of heat and cold on mortality were taken into account, whereas a more complex version included delayed impacts up to 25 days. A meta-analysis with selected climatic and sociodemographic covariates was conducted to study differences in the relationships between hospital districts. A pooled mortality-temperature relationship was produced to describe the average relationship in Finland. The simple DLNM model version without lag gave U-shaped dependencies of mortality on temperature almost without exception. The outputs of the model version with a 25-day lag were also U-shaped in most hospital districts. According to the meta-analysis, the differences in the temperature-mortality relationships between hospital districts were not statistically significant on the absolute temperature scale, meaning that the pooled mortality-temperature relationship can be applied to the whole country. However, on a relative temperature scale, heterogeneity was found, and the meta-regression suggested that morbidity index and population in the hospital districts might explain some of this heterogeneity. The pooled estimate for the relative risk (RR) of mortality at a daily mean temperature of 24 °C was 1.16 (95% CI 1.12-1.20) with reference at 14 °C, which is the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) of the pooled relationship. On the cold side, the RR at a daily mean temperature of -20 °C was 1.14 (95% CI 1.12-1.16). On a relative scale of daily mean temperature, the MMT was found at the 79th percentile.

Dataset Information

Biometeorological Assessment of Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures in Helsinki Region, Finland, 1972-2014.

Publications

Biometeorological Assessment of Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures in Helsinki Region, Finland, 1972-2014.

Similar Datasets

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