Material wealth in 3D: Mapping multiple paths to prosperity in low- and middle- income countries.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Hruschka DJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5590995 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Many critical policy decisions, from strategic investments to the allocation of humanitarian aid, rely on data about the geographic distribution of wealth and poverty. Yet many poverty maps are out of date or exist only at very coarse levels of granularity. Here we develop microestimates of the relative wealth and poverty of the populated surface of all 135 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) at 2.4 km resolution. The estimates are built by applying machine-learning algorithms to vast and heterogeneous data from satellites, mobile phone networks, and topographic maps, as well as aggregated and deidentified connectivity data from Facebook. We train and calibrate the estimates using nationally representative household survey data from 56 LMICs and then validate their accuracy using four independent sources of household survey data from 18 countries. We also provide confidence intervals for each microestimate to facilitate responsible downstream use. These estimates are provided free for public use in the hope that they enable targeted policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic, provide the foundation for insights into the causes and consequences of economic development and growth, and promote responsible policymaking in support of sustainable development.
| S-EPMC8784134 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Studies have shown mixed associations between wealth and fertility, a finding that has posed ongoing puzzles for evolutionary theories of human reproduction. However, measures of wealth do not simply capture economic capacity, which is expected to increase fertility. They can also serve as a proxy for market opportunities available to a household, which may reduce fertility. The multifaceted meaning of many wealth measures obscures our ability to draw inferences about the relationship between wealth and fertility. Here, we disentangle economic capacity and market opportunities using wealth measures that do not carry the same market-oriented biases as commonly used asset-based measures. Using measures of agricultural and market-based wealth for 562,324 women across 111,724 sampling clusters from 151 DHS surveys in 64 countries, we employ a latent variable structural equation model to estimate (a) latent variables capturing economic capacity and market opportunity and (b) their effects on completed fertility. Market opportunities had a consistent negative effect on fertility, while economic capacity had a weaker but generally positive effect on fertility. The results show that the confusion between operational measures of wealth and the concepts of economic capacity can impede our understanding of how material resources and market contexts shape reproduction.
| S-EPMC10427476 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0-59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3-5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization's median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications.
| S-EPMC7015855 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health1-3. As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting4-6. The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness7,8; however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health9-11. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but-to our knowledge-no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries12-14. By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.
| S-EPMC7015853 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)1-4. Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)5-8. Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km2 pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations; strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children.
| S-EPMC7739806 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIncome inequality and national wealth are strong determinants for health, but few studies have systematically investigated their influence on mortality across the early life-course, particularly outside the high-income world.MethodsWe performed cross-sectional regression analyses of the relationship between income inequality (national Gini coefficient) and national wealth (Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged over previous decade), and all-cause and grouped cause national mortality rate amongst infants, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 and 20-24 year olds in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) in 2012. Gini models were adjusted for GDP.ResultsData were available for 103 (79%) countries. Gini was positively associated with increased all-cause and communicable disease mortality in both sexes across all age groups, after adjusting for national wealth. Gini was only positively associated with increased injury mortality amongst infants and 20-24 year olds, and increased non-communicable disease mortality amongst 20-24 year old females. The strength of these associations tended to increase during adolescence. Increasing GDP was negatively associated with all-cause, communicable and non-communicable disease mortality in males and females across all age groups. GDP was also associated with decreased injury mortality in all age groups except 15-19 year old females, and 15-24 year old males. GDP became a weaker predictor of mortality during adolescence.ConclusionPolicies to reduce income inequality, rather than prioritising economic growth at all costs, may be needed to improve adolescent mortality in low and middle-income countries, a key development priority.
| S-EPMC5425964 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionLow levels of household access to basic environmental health assets (EHAs)-including technologies such as clean cookstoves and bed nets or infrastructure such as piped water and electricity-in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are known to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease. This low access persists despite decades of promotion of many low-cost, life-saving technologies, and is particularly pronounced among poor households. This study aims to characterize variation in access to EHAs among LMIC households as a function of wealth, as defined by ownership of various assets.MethodsDemographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 41 low- and middle-income countries were used to assess household-level access to the following EHAs: 1) improved water supply; 2) piped water supply; 3) improved sanitation; 4) modern cooking fuels; 5) electricity; and 6) bed nets. For comparison, we included access to mobile phones, which is considered a highly successful technology in terms of its penetration into poor households within LMICs. Ownership levels were compared across country-specific wealth quintiles constructed from household assets using bivariate analysis and multivariable linear regression models.ResultsAccess to EHAs was low among the households in the bottom three quintiles of wealth. Access to piped water, modern cooking fuels, electricity and improved sanitation, for example, were all below 50% for households in the bottom three wealth quintiles. Access to certain EHAs such as improved water supply and bed nets increased only slowly with concomitant increases in wealth, while gaps in access to other EHAs varied to a greater degree by wealth quintile. For example, disparities in access between the richest and poorest quintiles were greatest for electricity and improved sanitation. Rural households in all wealth quintiles had much lower levels of access to EHAs, except for bed nets, relative to urban households.ConclusionsThe findings of this study provide a basis for understanding how EHAs are distributed among poor households in LMICs, elucidate where inequalities in access are particularly pronounced, and point to a need for strategies that better reach the poor, if the global environmental burden of disease is to be reduced.
| S-EPMC6239312 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveDiabetes is a rapidly growing health problem in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but empirical data on its prevalence and relationship to socioeconomic status are scarce. We estimated diabetes prevalence and the subset with undiagnosed diabetes in 29 LMICs and evaluated the relationship of education, household wealth, and BMI with diabetes risk.Research design and methodsWe pooled individual-level data from 29 nationally representative surveys conducted between 2008 and 2016, totaling 588,574 participants aged ≥25 years. Diabetes prevalence and the subset with undiagnosed diabetes was calculated overall and by country, World Bank income group (WBIG), and geographic region. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to estimate relative risk (RR).ResultsOverall, prevalence of diabetes in 29 LMICs was 7.5% (95% CI 7.1-8.0) and of undiagnosed diabetes 4.9% (4.6-5.3). Diabetes prevalence increased with increasing WBIG: countries with low-income economies (LICs) 6.7% (5.5-8.1), lower-middle-income economies (LMIs) 7.1% (6.6-7.6), and upper-middle-income economies (UMIs) 8.2% (7.5-9.0). Compared with no formal education, greater educational attainment was associated with an increased risk of diabetes across WBIGs, after adjusting for BMI (LICs RR 1.47 [95% CI 1.22-1.78], LMIs 1.14 [1.06-1.23], and UMIs 1.28 [1.02-1.61]).ConclusionsAmong 29 LMICs, diabetes prevalence was substantial and increased with increasing WBIG. In contrast to the association seen in high-income countries, diabetes risk was highest among those with greater educational attainment, independent of BMI. LMICs included in this analysis may be at an advanced stage in the nutrition transition but with no reversal in the socioeconomic gradient of diabetes risk.
| S-EPMC7085810 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)-giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life-is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization's Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030.
| S-EPMC8373614 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTemporally-harmonized asset-based measures of wealth can be used to study the association of life-course wealth exposures in the same scale with health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The within-individual longitudinal stability of asset-based indices of wealth in LMICs is poorly understood.MethodsUsing data from five birth cohorts from three continents, we developed temporally-harmonized asset indices over the life course through polychoric principal component analysis of a common set of assets collected consistently over time (18 years in Brazil to 50 years in Guatemala). For each cohort, we compared the harmonized index to cross-sectional indices created using more comprehensive asset measures using rank correlations. We evaluated the rank correlation of the harmonized index in early life and adulthood with maternal schooling and own attained schooling, respectively.ResultsTemporally-harmonized asset indices developed from a consistently-collected set of assets (range: 10 in South Africa to 30 in Philippines) suggested that mean wealth improved over time for all birth cohorts. Cross-sectional indices created separately for each study wave were correlated with the harmonized index for all cohorts (Brazil: r = 0.78 to 0.96; Guatemala: r = 0.81 to 0.95; India: 0.75 to 0.93; Philippines: r = 0.92 to 0.99; South Africa: r = 0.84 to 0.96). Maternal schooling (r = 0.15 to 0.56) and attained schooling (r = 0.23 to 0.53) were positively correlated with the harmonized asset index in childhood and adulthood respectively.ConclusionsTemporally-harmonized asset indices displayed coherence with cross-sectional indices as well as construct validity with schooling.
| S-EPMC8637637 | biostudies-literature