Dataset Information

Developing a Natural History Progression Model for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Using the Six-Minute Walk Test.

ABSTRACT: The 6-minute walk test (6MWT) is used as a clinical endpoint to evaluate drug efficacy in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) trials. A model was developed using digitized 6MWT data that estimated two slopes and two intercepts to characterize 6MWT improvement during development and 6MWT decline. Mean baseline 6MWT was 362 (±87) meters. The model predicted an improvement at a rate of 20 meters/year (95% confidence interval (CI) = 9.4-30) up until 10 years old (95% CI?=?6.78-13.1), and then a decline at a rate of 85 meters/year (95% CI?=?72-98). Interpatient slope variability for improvement and decline were similar at 21.9 percentage of coefficient of variation (%CV) and 23.3%CV, respectively. Model simulations using age demographics from a previous DMD natural history study could reasonably predict the trend in improvement and decline in the 6MWT. This model can be used to quantitate individual patient trajectories, identify prognostic factors for disease progression, and evaluate drug effect.

SUBMITTER: Hamuro L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5613187 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Developing a Natural History Progression Model for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Using the Six-Minute Walk Test.

Hamuro Lora L Chan Phyllis P Tirucherai Giridhar G AbuTarif Malaz M

CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology 20170829 9

The 6-minute walk test (6MWT) is used as a clinical endpoint to evaluate drug efficacy in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) trials. A model was developed using digitized 6MWT data that estimated two slopes and two intercepts to characterize 6MWT improvement during development and 6MWT decline. Mean baseline 6MWT was 362 (±87) meters. The model predicted an improvement at a rate of 20 meters/year (95% confidence interval (CI) = 9.4-30) up until 10 years old (95% CI = 6.78-13.1), and then a declin ...[more]

PMID: 28643370

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Project description:BackgroundDeficits in ambulatory function progress at heterogeneous rates among individuals with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). The resulting inherent variability in ambulatory outcomes has complicated the design of drug efficacy trials and clouded the interpretation of trial results. We developed a prediction model for 1-year change in the six minute walk distance (6MWD) among DMD patients, and compared its predictive value to that of commonly used prognostic factors (age, baseline 6MWD, and steroid use).MethodsNatural history data were collected from DMD patients at routine follow up visits approximately every 6 months over the course of 2-5 years. Assessments included ambulatory function and steroid use. The annualized change in 6MWD (?6MWD) was studied between all pairs of visits separated by 8-16 months. Prediction models were developed using multivariable regression for repeated measures, and evaluated using cross-validation.ResultsAmong n = 191 follow-up intervals (n = 39 boys), mean starting age was 9.4 years, mean starting 6MWD was 351.8 meters, and 75% had received steroids for at least one year. Over the subsequent 8-16 months, mean ?6MWD was -37.0 meters with a standard deviation (SD) of 93.7 meters. Predictions based on a composite of age, baseline 6MWD, and steroid use explained 28% of variation in ?6MWD (R2 = 0.28, residual SD = 79.4 meters). A broadened prognostic model, adding timed 10-meter walk/run, 4-stair climb, and rise from supine, as well as height and weight, significantly improved prediction, explaining 59% of variation in ?6MWD after cross-validation (R2 = 0.59, residual SD = 59.7 meters).ConclusionsA prognostic model incorporating timed function tests significantly improved prediction of 1-year changes in 6MWD. Explained variation was more than doubled compared to predictions based only on age, baseline 6MWD, and steroid use. There is significant potential for composite prognostic models to inform DMD clinical trials and clinical practice.

Project description:IntroductionData is currently lacking anchoring a 30-meter longitudinal change in walking ability by 6-minute walk test (6MWT) in Duchenne muscular dystrophy as a minimal clinically important difference and "clinically meaningful" person-reported outcomes (PROs) at differing levels of ambulatory ability.MethodsWe describe correlation between measures, 1-year change in measures, and correlation of 1-year changes between measures for the six-minute walk test (6MWT), 10-meter run/walk velocity, PedsQL and POSNA Pediatric Outcomes Data Collection Instrument (PODCI) in 24 4-12 year old. ambulatory DMD and 36 typical controls, and determine if minimal clinically important differences (MCID) of PROs contribute to different estimates of 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) change at differing levels of ability.ResultsPedsQL total and physical function and PODCI global, transfer/mobility and sports/physical function PROs demonstrated significant differences between DMD and controls (p<0.00001). In DMD, 6MWD and 10-meter run/walk velocity were correlated with PODCI domain scores, with the transfer/mobility scale showing the strongest relationship (r=0.79 and r=0.76). In DMD, 6MWD distance and 10-meter run/walk velocity weakly correlated with PedsQL domain scores. In DMD, 6MWD, 10-meter run/walk velocity, and PODCI global and transfer and basic mobility demonstrated significant one-year change and exceeded the amount of change representing MCID. In DMD, 6MWD change highly correlated with change in PODCI global and PODCI transfer/mobility scores (r=0.76 and r=0.93). PODCI global and PODCI transfer/mobility scales provided the best estimates of 6MWT performance. A "meaningful" 4.5 point change in a low PODCI transfer / basic mobility score of 30 to 34.5 was associated with a 5.6m 6MWD change from 150.3 to 155.9m. At PODCI levels closer to normative levels for healthy controls, the change in 6MWD distance associated with a "meaningful" change in PODCI scores was almost 46m.DiscussionAt lower levels of function, smaller increases in 6MWD result in meaningful change in quality of life (QoL) instrument scores. At higher levels of function, larger increases may be necessary to achieve the same QoL change score.

Dataset Information

Developing a Natural History Progression Model for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Using the Six-Minute Walk Test.

Publications

Developing a Natural History Progression Model for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Using the Six-Minute Walk Test.

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