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Applying Nonparametric Methods to Analyses of Short-Term Fine Particulate Matter Exposure and Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Diseases among Older Adults.

ABSTRACT: Short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) has been associated with increased risks of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), but whether such associations are supportive of a causal relationship is unclear, and few studies have employed formal causal analysis methods to address this. We employed nonparametric methods to examine the associations between daily concentrations of PM_2.5 and hospital admissions (HAs) for CVD among adults aged 75 years and older in Texas, USA. We first quantified the associations in partial dependence plots generated using the random forest approach. We next used a Bayesian network learning algorithm to identify conditional dependencies between CVD HAs of older men and women and several predictor variables. We found that geographic location (county), time (e.g., month and year), and temperature satisfied necessary information conditions for being causes of CVD HAs among older men and women, but daily PM_2.5 concentrations did not. We also found that CVD HAs of disjoint subpopulations were strongly predictive of CVD HAs among older men and women, indicating the presence of unmeasured confounders. Our findings from nonparametric analyses do not support PM_2.5 as a direct cause of CVD HAs among older adults.

SUBMITTER: Cox LAT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5615588 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Applying Nonparametric Methods to Analyses of Short-Term Fine Particulate Matter Exposure and Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Diseases among Older Adults.

Cox Louis Anthony Tony LAT Liu Xiaobin X Shi Liuhua L Zu Ke K Goodman Julie J

International journal of environmental research and public health 20170912 9

Short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) has been associated with increased risks of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), but whether such associations are supportive of a causal relationship is unclear, and few studies have employed formal causal analysis methods to address this. We employed nonparametric methods to examine the associations between daily concentrations of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and hospital admissions (HAs) for CVD among adults aged 75 years and older in Texas, US ...[more]

PMID: 28895893

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Project description:Objective: To assess risks and costs of hospital admission associated with short term exposure to fine particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) for 214 mutually exclusive disease groups.Design: Time stratified, case crossover analyses with conditional logistic regressions adjusted for non-linear confounding effects of meteorological variables.Setting: Medicare inpatient hospital claims in the United States, 2000-12 (n=95?277?169).Participants: All Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 or older admitted to hospital.Main outcome measures: Risk of hospital admission, number of admissions, days in hospital, inpatient and post-acute care costs, and value of statistical life (that is, the economic value used to measure the cost of avoiding a death) due to the lives lost at discharge for 214 disease groups.Results: Positive associations between short term exposure to PM2.5 and risk of hospital admission were found for several prevalent but rarely studied diseases, such as septicemia, fluid and electrolyte disorders, and acute and unspecified renal failure. Positive associations were also found between risk of hospital admission and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, Parkinson's disease, diabetes, phlebitis, thrombophlebitis, and thromboembolism, confirming previously published results. These associations remained consistent when restricted to days with a daily PM2.5 concentration below the WHO air quality guideline for the 24 hour average exposure to PM2.5. For the rarely studied diseases, each 1 µg/m3 increase in short term PM2.5 was associated with an annual increase of 2050 hospital admissions (95% confidence interval 1914 to 2187 admissions), 12?216 days in hospital (11?358 to 13?075), US$31m (£24m, €28m; $29m to $34m) in inpatient and post-acute care costs, and $2.5bn ($2.0bn to $2.9bn) in value of statistical life. For diseases with a previously known association, each 1 µg/m3 increase in short term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with an annual increase of 3642 hospital admissions (3434 to 3851), 20?098 days in hospital (18?950 to 21?247), $69m ($65m to $73m) in inpatient and post-acute care costs, and $4.1bn ($3.5bn to $4.7bn) in value of statistical life.Conclusions: New causes and previously identified causes of hospital admission associated with short term exposure to PM2.5 were found. These associations remained even at a daily PM2.5 concentration below the WHO 24 hour guideline. Substantial economic costs were linked to a small increase in short term PM2.5.

Project description:BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:Fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 ?m) has multiple adverse effects on human health, especially on the respiratory and circulatory system. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the short-term effect of PM2.5 on the mortality risk of non-accidental and circulatory diseases, and to explore the potential effect modification by sex, education and death location. METHODS:We collected daily mortality counts of Changchun (China) residents, daily meteorology and air pollution data, from January 1, 2014, to January 1, 2017. We focused on the elderly (?65 years old) population who died from non-accidental causes and circulatory diseases, and stratified them by sex, education, and death location. A generalized additive Poisson regression model (GAM) was used to analyse the impact of air pollutants on mortality. We fit single pollutant models to examine PM2.5 effects with different lag structures of single-day (distributed lag:lag0-lag3) and multi-day (moving average lag: lag01-lag03). To test the sensitivity of the model, a multi-pollutant model was established when the PM2.5 effect was strongest. RESULTS:In the single pollutant models, an increment of PM2.5 by 10 ?g/m3 at lag0-3 was associated with a 0.385% (95% CI: 0.069% to 0.702%) increase in daily non-accidental mortality and a 0.442% (95% CI: 0.038% to 0.848%) increase in daily circulatory disease mortality. NO2 (lag1) and O3 (lag0, lag1, lag2, lag01,lag02, lag03) were associated with daily non-accidental death and NO2 (lag1, lag3, lag03) and O3 (lag0, lag1, lag01,lag02, lag03) were associated with daily circulatory disease mortality. In the co-pollutant models, the risk estimates for PM2.5 changed slightly. The excess mortality risk of non-accidental and circulatory diseases was higher for women, people with low education, and died outside hospital. CONCLUSIONS:We found that short-term exposure to PM2.5 increased the mortality risk of non-accidental and circulatory diseases among the elderly in Changchun. Women, people with low education and died outside hospital are more susceptible to PM2.5. NO2 and O3 were also associated with an increase in mortality from non-accidental and circulatory diseases and the O3 is a high effect.

Dataset Information

Applying Nonparametric Methods to Analyses of Short-Term Fine Particulate Matter Exposure and Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Diseases among Older Adults.

Publications

Applying Nonparametric Methods to Analyses of Short-Term Fine Particulate Matter Exposure and Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Diseases among Older Adults.

Similar Datasets

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