Dataset Information

North-south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming.

ABSTRACT: There is growing empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change will substantially affect the electric sector. Impacts will stem both from the supply side-through the mitigation of greenhouse gases-and from the demand side-through adaptive responses to a changing environment. Here we provide evidence of a polarization of both peak load and overall electricity consumption under future warming for the world's third-largest electricity market-the 35 countries of Europe. We statistically estimate country-level dose-response functions between daily peak/total electricity load and ambient temperature for the period 2006-2012. After removing the impact of nontemperature confounders and normalizing the residual load data for each country, we estimate a common dose-response function, which we use to compute national electricity loads for temperatures that lie outside each country's currently observed temperature range. To this end, we impose end-of-century climate on today's European economies following three different greenhouse-gas concentration trajectories, ranging from ambitious climate-change mitigation-in line with the Paris agreement-to unabated climate change. We find significant increases in average daily peak load and overall electricity consumption in southern and western Europe (?3 to ?7% for Portugal and Spain) and significant decreases in northern Europe (?-6 to ?-2% for Sweden and Norway). While the projected effect on European total consumption is nearly zero, the significant polarization and seasonal shifts in peak demand and consumption have important ramifications for the location of costly peak-generating capacity, transmission infrastructure, and the design of energy-efficiency policy and storage capacity.

SUBMITTER: Wenz L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5617269 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

North-south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming.

Wenz Leonie L Levermann Anders A Auffhammer Maximilian M

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20170828 38

There is growing empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change will substantially affect the electric sector. Impacts will stem both from the supply side-through the mitigation of greenhouse gases-and from the demand side-through adaptive responses to a changing environment. Here we provide evidence of a polarization of both peak load and overall electricity consumption under future warming for the world's third-largest electricity market-the 35 countries of Europe. We statistically estim ...[more]

PMID: 28847939

Similar Datasets

Project description:Pollution and other anthropogenic effects have driven a decrease in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Iberian Peninsula. The restocking effort carried out in the 1980s, with salmon from northern latitudes with the aim of mitigating the decline of native populations, failed, probably due to the deficiency in adaptation of foreign salmon from northern Europe to the warm waters of the Iberian Peninsula. This result would imply that the Iberian populations of Atlantic salmon have experienced local adaptation in their past evolutionary history, as has been described for other populations of this species and other salmonids. Local adaptation can occur by divergent selections between environments, favoring the fixation of alleles that increase the fitness of a population in the environment it inhabits relative to other alleles favored in another population. In this work, we compared the genomes of different populations from the Iberian Peninsula (Atlantic and Cantabric basins) and Scotland in order to provide tentative evidence of candidate SNPs responsible for the adaptive differences between populations, which may explain the failures of restocking carried out during the 1980s. For this purpose, the samples were genotyped with a 220,000 high-density SNP array (Affymetrix) specific to Atlantic salmon. Our results revealed potential evidence of local adaptation for North Spanish and Scottish populations. As expected, most differences concerned the comparison of the Iberian Peninsula with Scotland, although there were also differences between Atlantic and Cantabric populations. A high proportion of the genes identified are related to development and cellular metabolism, DNA transcription and anatomical structure. A particular SNP was identified within the NADP-dependent malic enzyme-2 (mMEP-2*), previously reported by independent studies as a candidate for local adaptation in salmon from the Iberian Peninsula. Interestingly, the corresponding SNP within the mMEP-2* region was consistent with a genomic pattern of divergent selection.

Dataset Information

North-south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming.

Publications

North-south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets